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February 15-MOrch possible wintry threats


tombo82685

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Yeah, it's in the realm of possibility but it probably needs a bit more dig on the northern wave to nudge the southern wave out a bit to the east, all while phasing everything together juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuusssssssssssssssttttttttttt right...ultimate thread the needle. :lol:

this could be your first one, i don't know what things look like before this. But if a track took this i would imagine some parts of mt holly cwa would get frozen

 

00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif

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Continues trend. 2-3" looks better there now.

it will be interesting to see how much lift we get in the snow growth region. If its better than sat night a lot of areas should get better than an inch at least. The 700mb temps still look pretty good for greater than 10:1 ratios. Going to come down to how much qpf. .1 or more could yield 1.5-2 inches, .2 could be 3-4.

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it will be interesting to see how much lift we get in the snow growth region. If its better than sat night a lot of areas should get better than an inch at least. The 700mb temps still look pretty good for greater than 10:1 ratios. Going to come down to how much qpf. .1 or more could yield 1.5-2 inches, .2 could be 3-4.

Seems to be a bit more potent then Saturday night?

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 It does have a little stronger southern stream than previous runs which is a step to the euro but no phasing like the euro. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system.

 

As far as Thursday/Friday, there is still no blocking and forecasted track is a rainmaker for the coastal plain. Lots of warm air rushing in to meet this moisture. Lack of a negative NAO, and tracks which coastal hug, or deepen too far East or north, is killing us.

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