RutgersWx92 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If you read the HWO put out by Mt. Holly at 10am you would certainly think their was a much better chance of seeing a decent snow. I'm suprised they would even mention it with such a low probability at this point. I know, it is strange. And believe it or not they still have a 60% chance of snow here for Sunday, although I'm sure they'll downgrade that with the afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 that pv in south central canada is prob going to smash the next threat south of us yea, doesn't seem to be helping our cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Only shot we had was if the S/W dropping down through the 4 corners region phased with the PV sooner causing the trough to go negative tilt further west and the low to form in the central gulf. Instead the S/W is virtually non-existent and in some models lagged behind. that's where I'm gonna be with the stress of looking at these stupid models..at least they could say he died doing something he loved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 at 78 hours is when the Euro stalls out the system in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hey guys I hear that the southern disturbance that is so key is right now is stronger than anticipated. Oklahoma and Texas panhandle regions are getting more snow and more organized snow....is that true? Between yesterday's event and this it seems the models are underestimating southern branch energy. Any thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hey guys I hear that the southern disturbance that is so key is right now is stronger than anticipated. Oklahoma and Texas panhandle regions are getting more snow and more organized snow....is that true? Between yesterday's event and this it seems the models are underestimating southern branch energy. Any thoughts Doesn't mean a hill of beans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yea... let's find a new hobby! Its going to take a while to get over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 From Steve D.... "The problem is that the entire set up is dependent on the disturbances and upper low in the Pacific and how they set up the next 24 hours. The area that has the least reliable data is key, makes for a forecast high for bust potential either way." - Steve D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 next system at 84 in the form of a shortwave headed out of Montana into the dakotas. Another shortwave in Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 at hour 90, large swatch of light to moderate QPF streching northern kentucky northwestward through Iowa, mosty in response to Warm Air Advection in the presence of a tight thermal gradient across the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 90 looks like the setup on the gfs, but the storm in the atlantic has stalled well east of sne but the h5 setup has a flow diving from the north over the lakes right to nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 by 96, it has reached central Ohio to Central West Virginia... again.. driven by overrunning over a strong thermal gradient.. the wave is not too sharp at 500 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 from twitter- BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Looks like the Beastie is getting the best of me.. heading further out to sea. Will wait before I flip on what looks like my flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Doesn't mean a hill of beans. This is a current display at 500mb. When you compare how flat it is with what the models are showing they look pretty accurate. Perhaps slightly more digging going on near the TX panhandle. It does seem to have a tad of a negative look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 system weakens at 102 as wave is pretty much completely flat by that time, but light overrunning QPF exists well south and west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the vortex at h5 east of the lakes in se canada pushes the clipper south basically like the gfs maybe a lil further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hour 108. light snow from norfolk to richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 dc and balt gets some lgt precip at hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 some more lgt precip m/d line south to northern nc at hr 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 114 - pattern kind of omega-blockish.. in some respects.. the omega ridge part being the blocking way up in northern canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 does the gfs have an h5 vortex in south eastern canada at hr 102-114 timeframe? This just popped up on the euro, cause 0z didn't have this. This is what crushes the clipper to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 does the gfs have an h5 vortex in south eastern canada at hr 102-114 timeframe? This just popped up on the euro, cause 0z didn't have this. This is what crushes the clipper to the south I guess now all we have is the fantasy day 8, Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I guess now all we have is the fantasy day 8, Christmas storm. last yr the block was our best friend well from nyc south, this yr its killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I guess now all we have is the fantasy day 8, Christmas storm. lol yea-- at least we have "something" to look forward to. Although, I saw Ace was rather enthusiastic about that, which is about the most shocking thing Ive seen all year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 last yr the block was our best friend well from nyc south, this yr its killing us Killing us because the ridge isnt strong enough out west? Because you'd think you want a strong block to suppress the la nina tendency for SE ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 same story at 132... Euro says the storm off the northwest pacific coast is going nowhere soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 114 - pattern kind of omega-blockish.. in some respects.. the omega ridge part being the blocking way up in northern canada. Sounds like something one would expect in a la nina with a strong neg nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12Z JMA still brings the half-inch isohyet to L.I., but it may need one more cycle to catch up to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 same story at 132... Euro says the storm off the northwest pacific coast is going nowhere soon. How come west coast storms are modeled so well They always seem to go where theyre supposed to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 jeez.. California.. my word! it's ugly out there, per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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