RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS with the swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Very similar to 12z. Slightly better near the shore as it gets the secondary gong a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 SW coming out of northern stream with no phasing with the southern jet is always suspect. Could incorporate Atlantic moisture if it develops fast enough but this becoming less likely as the polar vortex is crankin' . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I won't bite on the suppressed solution until after the 12z tomorrow. I think this starts trending north tomorrow (or at least shows *a* run of a north shift). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Sure got quite in here. Tomorrows 12z will be critical hope for some movement nort and not a swing and a miss.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM looks different at H5 especially with the shortwave in the southwest. Don't know what effect that'll have on the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM looks different at H5 especially with the shortwave in the southwest. Don't know what effect that'll have on the rest of the run. Yeah the NAM is stronger with the southern portion of the western system as it comes ashore in N California. Could strengthen the S Plains low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah the NAM is stronger with the southern portion of the western system as it comes ashore in N California. Could strengthen the S Plains low. both parties are a good bit slower this run also compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 both parties are a good bit slower this run also compared to 18z. Handling the western system differently. Shows there is still quite a bit of uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Handling the western system differently. Shows there is still quite a bit of uncertainty yes agreed, but i still don't like how that northern stream isn't digging that much. Could be a timing thing in comparing the runs. You need that to dig so it raises the hgts along the coast so a more northerly track can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Damm PNA flattening out is the culprit here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Why is the low in the Gulf of Alaska flattening out the ridge in the west? shouldn't it be pumping the ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This is going to worse i think, the whole flow is just way to compressed with nwly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Models are losing a lot of energy to that closed off shortwave of the SW coast...Oh well...What a brutal winter :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The southern piece of energy never leaves California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The southern piece of energy never leaves California. yea, you want that to come out. Like Brett said when its held back like thats its a weaker solution. Anyways, its the nam, could it be right yes, but I wouldn't place my cards on it till i see the rest of the 0z suite. Ask sne how their 4-8 snowstorm worked out yesterday that it was predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 so far only difference i see in the gfs is the energy coming into the west coast is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 so far only difference i see in the gfs is the energy coming into the west coast is stronger. and we end up with zero precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This system is not coming back as a moderate snowstorm because the clipper low ahead of it suppresses the pattern. No -NAO, too progressive.....doesn't get going untill 60W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This system reminds of Kentucky basketball this year it keeps getting worse and worse. Very disorganized. Southern energy remains in the west still and the northern piece is slower. I think Monday is the best chance for any light snow/mix now with overrunning ahead of the warm-up. I'm getting ahead of the trend and throwing in the towel minus some snow showers for Friday. Of course it's me and not the office forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This system reminds of Kentucky basketball this year it keeps getting worse and worse. Very disorganized. Southern energy remains in the west still and the northern piece is slower. I think Monday is the best chance for any light snow/mix now with overrunning ahead of the warm-up. I'm getting ahead of the trend and throwing in the towel minus some snow showers for Friday. Of course it's me and not the office forecast. That event is also iffy, it would rely on that southern stream disturbance not dampening as it comes east, if it holds up with the high we'll have in place for overrunning something could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This system is not coming back as a moderate snowstorm because the clipper low ahead of it suppresses the pattern. No -NAO, too progressive.....doesn't get going untill 60W. And the fact that the southern s/w doesn't feel like leaving the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .1-.25 for the euro for philly area and souther nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .1-.25 for the euro for philly area and souther nj Is this less further north like ABE or about the same? Thank you in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Is this less further north like ABE or about the same? Thank you in advance! a little better lol. .10-.25 area is from about as far west lancaster due north to rt 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 EC QPF: AVP - 0.11 MPO - 0.12 ABE - 0.14 EWR - 0.12 RDG - 0.17 TTN - 0.14 MDT - 0.14 PHL - 0.18 ILG - 0.19 ACY - 0.18 BWI - 0.15 GED - 0.22 SBY - 0.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 IF the EC's QPF was overdone like it was in last Thursday's event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 6z GFS is a bit more juicy...still "dry" but it's not as dry as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 6z GFS is a bit more juicy...still "dry" but it's not as dry as 0z. GFS may have bottomed out on the 00z run. The 06 GEFS are also a little stronger than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS may have bottomed out on the 00z run. The 06 GEFS are also a little stronger than 00z. i thought the gfs looked better in general. They dug the northern stream moreso than the 0z, which raised the hgts along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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