Quakertown needs snow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 continued increase in qpf on gfs looks like ur 1-6" call yesterday still stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 its over .1 so a 1-3 inch event. thanks tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z ukie coming in with a few tenths. Similar to the GFS it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z ukie coming in with a few tenths. Similar to the GFS it appears. Wasn't it a big bomb til this run? Models finally coming into focus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wasn't it a big bomb til this run? Models finally coming into focus? I thought it lost it last night. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 HR 66 GFS better than 1-2 for coastal. Some of us do live here. yes, we do....and with any luck we could still make out decently from this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 one that thing worries me relatively speaking there could be a screw zone, meaning only like .1-.15 that gets caught in between the developing coastal and dying northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You can say it we won't be offended....SE PA one that thing worries me relatively speaking there could be a screw zone, meaning only like .1-.15 that gets caught in between the developing coastal and dying northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 one that thing worries me relatively speaking there could be a screw zone, meaning only like .1-.15 that gets caught in between the developing coastal and dying northern stream At this point if you get an inch, cheer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 At this point if you get an inch, cheer. im expecting 2-4...and yess i know, hence why i said relatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 im expecting 2-4...and yess i know, hence why i said relatively. After I see the EC I'll make a call, but it'll probably more along the lines of 1-3 unless the EC is really amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I still think this is a rather disorganized event. The best isentropic lift ( best chance for overrunning precip) is in the tn valley and the northern piece is staying over the great lakes. I'm skeptical of the higher qpf's with the new guidance. Main glaring reason is the mos output for RH is only near 40-45% at 18z Friday with a very dry sounding. We saw with the great virga event of 2013 that 50-55% did not get most precip. A lot of what limited moisture is around will have to go toward saturation. However the surface and air temps in the 20's will create a nice fluff factor. Ratios of 15:1 on the 12z GFS for those wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wasn't it a big bomb til this run? Models finally coming into focus? It looked like it started trending downward last night, but it was the most amped the longest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxphanatic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I still think this is a rather disorganized event. The best isentropic lift ( best chance for overrunning precip) is in the tn valley and the northern piece is staying over the great lakes. I'm skeptical of the higher qpf's with the new guidance. Main glaring reason is the mos output for RH is only near 40-45% at 18z Friday with a very dry sounding. We saw with the great virga event of 2013 that 50-55% did not get most precip. A lot of what limited moisture is around will have to go toward saturation. However the surface and air temps in the 20's will create a nice fluff factor. Ratios of 15:1 on the 12z GFS for those wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I still think this is a rather disorganized event. The best isentropic lift ( best chance for overrunning precip) is in the tn valley and the northern piece is staying over the great lakes. I'm skeptical of the higher qpf's with the new guidance. Main glaring reason is the mos output for RH is only near 40-45% at 18z Friday with a very dry sounding. We saw with the great virga event of 2013 that 50-55% did not get most precip. A lot of what limited moisture is around will have to go toward saturation. However the surface and air temps in the 20's will create a nice fluff factor. Ratios of 15:1 on the 12z GFS for those wondering. Don't the models take the virga into consideration? Your analysis is great though, and probably very realistic on what may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't the models take the virga into consideration? Your analysis is great though, and probably very realistic on what may happen. Yes but I've seen 6 inch events turn into 3 inches b/c of very dry air in advance of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The ukie is up at meteocentre. It Is a little stronger than 12z GFS but differences have narrowed quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yes but I've seen 6 inch events turn into 3 inches b/c of very dry air in advance of the storm. Ahh i see, well hopefully it trends a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ahh i see, well hopefully it trends a little better. GGEM also closer to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Coal Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hello all. Just trying to get a better handle on this. The start time has been pushed back several times with this event. Are we now looking at later afternoon start on Friday? Is duration short quick hitter type? Thanks and really enjoy reading this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hello all. Just trying to get a better handle on this. The start time has been pushed back several times with this event. Are we now looking at later afternoon start on Friday? Is duration short quick hitter type? Thanks and really enjoy reading this forum. yea if we get the precip it would be friday afternoon till about midnight...a 6 hr shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Is the shortwave in the CONUS yet? If not couldn we see a different solution at 0z tonight? And if so is that why we may see some better agreement in the 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Is the shortwave in the CONUS yet? If not couldn we see a different solution at 0z tonight? And if so is that why we may see some better agreement in the 12z suite? Its still off the coast. Should be fully ashore tomorrow 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Its still off the coast. Should be fully ashore tomorrow 12Z. Sucker will be flying across the states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Sucker will be flying across the states. You ain't kiddin'. Very fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 How's the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 How's the GEFS? Support the Op run. some a little stronger some weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 euro is same as the other models .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 euro is same as the other models .1-.25 That's ok in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Guessing highest amounts south and east like GFS, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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