NaoPos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro ensembles SE of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 By the way, 18z has some over running, and keeps the main low offshore. Wes is liking this set up. Check the main page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z GFS a juicier system this run? Is it coming further west...hope not. Looks strange with the two lows separated over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The GFS came west a bit at 0z, but the UKMET and Euro both went east. Still 5 days to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EURO is so close to MECS here. Earlier phasing and we're talking about an historic storm. Then of course the 6z GFS @ 192 hours shows about as epic of a setup as you can think of. Fun times ahead I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EURO is so close to MECS here. Earlier phasing and we're talking about an historic storm. Then of course the 6z GFS @ 192 hours shows about as epic of a setup as you can think of. Fun times ahead I hope. this deserves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 All because I'll be gone by then... The despair you exhibit at your departure before this event's arrival confirms the validity of the threat! Have a nice trip back, Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS in the nuisance to SECS'y category for the weekend storm for sepa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yea, maybe 2-4, 3-5 for se pa this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Regardless of how much, I just hope it stays snow. Surface goes above freezing in PHL during event. Looks like a disorganized, strung out system, which finally gets its act together and phases offshore. Maybe 3-5 in this area per new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yea, maybe 2-4, 3-5 for se pa this run. hate to do this lol, 12z gfs is prob more rain for phl...bl warmth ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Lehigh Valley jackpot on the 12z GFS...not exactly where I want to be 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 hate to do this lol, 12z gfs is prob more rain for phl...bl warmth ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Tom is the Grinch who stole After Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Bullseye this far out is always dangerous. Model verification in this range is pretty poor unless this is the winter of '09/'10 when every storm was accurately modeled a week out. The NAO still looks like it crashes after this storm instead of before, although according to Wes the AO may be a better signal than the NAO. The AO looks like it could go anywhere. In that vein, I think our storm chances depend largely on what the AO decides to do at this point. Even though we have neutral ENSO conditions, it is behaving more like a Nina and that almost never favors us. I think when we've received strong storms in Nina patterns, there is always something to strongly overcome the pattern (such as a massive block or the like), but I'm not entirely certain about that. I can't remember all the major storms that have come in Nina conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You don't have to go far from the city to be all snow though. Even KPNE is all frozen. 0.43" snow, 0.16" sleet (or maybe freezing rain), then another 0.06" snow. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpne DYL is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 UKMET and GGEM are both epicly suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Who will be doing the Euro pbp today? I haven't seen tombo around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GEFS: 96 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Who will be doing the Euro pbp today? I haven't seen tombo around... ill let you know what occurs, but no pbp...i'll be on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 UKMET and GGEM are both epicly suppressed. its all going to come down to the wed storm with the placement and strength of that...also if the northern stream can get involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Tom is the Grinch who stole After Christmas l ol imho, i think we have to worry more about a miss than a cutter or warm solution. That wed storm is big pig sitting in the way and that really going to flatten out the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro looks to be further se on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 euro further northwest with precip this run...hr 108.. .25-.5 from dyl to rt 363 to parkesburg on south and east... . 1-.25 for rest of area.. all snow for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 108, 996 east of VA beach offshore a decent bit. .25-.50" precip shield into TTN-chesco all points SE. light precip back into most of the CWA< surface 0 line runs from SCNJ to NYC> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 then precip out of area hr 114...but its further northwest with precip than 0z...it just misses the northern stream... need that to dig more so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 108-114 its bombing. offshore though. JUST south of the Benchmark.. eastern LI, SE NE coast getting mod hit... heaviest snows stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 tom, southern stream looked a little flatter, but the northern stream dug a bit more, hence the higher heights along the coast for a bit. Prob why the precip shield makes it a bit north west of the 0z run. We're CLose..... nice little 2-4 type snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 wow @ 120..euro bombs it to 968mbs ESE of cape cod (well offshore)... would be impressive on sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.