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Srain

Central/Western Summer Medium/Long Range Discussions

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Yeah, the last 24 hrs of runs have started to revive the 4/1-4/2 period from its deathbed. I have two general concerns: (1) the low-amplitude nature of the trough, which typically requires impeccable shortwave timing to maximize any Plains setup's potential during the early spring; (2) the degree of downstream trough amplification along and just off the east coast, which will modulate moisture quality and warm sector extent. It wouldn't be early April without some significant concerns, though, and I'm glad we finally have something worth watching inside of 168 hrs.

 

Also, the EPS control run last night was electrifying for the April 4-10 timeframe, with a second, deeper longwave trough parking over the western CONUS later in the period. I don't buy it for a second, but at least it's further evidence that just about anything is possible beyond D10 right now. Was getting a little old seeing a Plains omega block pattern in the long range the past couple days.

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Yeah, the last 24 hrs of runs have started to revive the 4/1-4/2 period from its deathbed. I have two general concerns: (1) the low-amplitude nature of the trough, which typically requires impeccable shortwave timing to maximize any Plains setup's potential during the early spring; (2) the degree of downstream trough amplification along and just off the east coast, which will modulate moisture quality and warm sector extent. It wouldn't be early April without some significant concerns, though, and I'm glad we finally have something worth watching inside of 168 hrs.

 

Started watching this more closely last night, especially with the 00z Euro run. The same low amplitude nature that could somewhat hinder this in the Plains might make it more favorable to the east of the region, keep in mind.

 

And yes, the Euro also had something brewing at the end of its run as well concerning the evolution of another, perhaps longer lived longwave trough.

 

Edit: 12z Euro holds for next week. And boy is it looking threatening afterwards as well.

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Starting to get mildly excited for Wednesday. I really don't have the time/resources to go much beyond the DFW area at the time (yay poor college student!), but it looks like assuming there aren't any major guidance shifts, there is a chance that I might not have to. Perhaps I'm just too anxious to chase something again after so much down time, but I'm definitely going to keep a close eye on things.

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So the Euro has a 180 kt 300 mb jet coming in with the trough that is developing near the end of the run, along with a 120 kt H5 max that hasn't even rounded the base of the trough yet.

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So the Euro has a 180 kt 300 mb jet coming in with the trough that is developing near the end of the run, along with a 120 kt H5 max that hasn't even rounded the base of the trough yet.

Good support from the Euro ensembles too in that time-frame. It would appear that severe season is finally waking up with at least more potential setups in the coming couple of weeks.

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The end of the 12z ECMWF run is like a dream, with a wide open Gulf awaiting that ominous trough, implying a setup that would be quite high-end for the time of year by D11-12. The likelihood of it being correct in even the most general sense is too low to be worth dissecting, but it's beautiful just seeing something like that on a model this time of year. Wow.

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I'm going to give it a few days, but if the longer range solutions continue to show that humdinger a few days from now, I might be thinking about scraping my preliminary chase plans for Wednesday (assuming that still looks good) in favor of waiting for one of those days. Financially, I'm thinking I'm only capable of one chase right now, so I want to make sure I pick the right one. I was in a similar situation last year, and the day I picked didn't pan out as well as I had hoped.

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The end of the 12z ECMWF run is like a dream, with a wide open Gulf awaiting that ominous trough, implying a setup that would be quite high-end for the time of year by D11-12. The likelihood of it being correct in even the most general sense is too low to be worth dissecting, but it's beautiful just seeing something like that on a model this time of year. Wow.

 

That type of trough/upper level wind fields...it would probably end up as being high end for any time of the year.

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18z GFS with sig changes, and now showing an ECMWF-like solution for next Tue-Thur.

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18z GFS with sig changes, and now showing an ECMWF-like solution for next Tue-Thur.

 

85-95 kt H5 jet with that and a 40-50+ kt LLJ, over 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE getting into Central IL, impressive to say the least.

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The end of the 12z ECMWF run is like a dream, with a wide open Gulf awaiting that ominous trough, implying a setup that would be quite high-end for the time of year by D11-12. The likelihood of it being correct in even the most general sense is too low to be worth dissecting, but it's beautiful just seeing something like that on a model this time of year. Wow.

 

Yeah, the Euro ensemble mean had a favorable looking 500 mb height pattern as well for day 10.

 

post-869-0-34124600-1395960191_thumb.png

 

The top analogs based on that 500 mb height forecast contain a couple very impressive events, though mainly east of the great plains. Either way, there does seem to be a signal for a more widespread severe threat around that time. The image below shows the mean 850 mb temperatures and anomalies of the top ten analogs listed.

 

post-869-0-02780300-1395960591_thumb.png

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Yeah, the Euro ensemble mean had a favorable looking 500 mb height pattern as well for day 10.

 

attachicon.gifecmAnom240.png

 

The top analogs based on that 500 mb height forecast contain a couple very impressive events, though mainly east of the great plains. Either way, there does seem to be a signal for a more widespread severe threat around that time. The image below shows the mean 850 mb temperatures and anomalies of the top ten analogs listed.

 

attachicon.gifecmAnalog850_240.png

 

I'm gonna be honest, if there was ever an upper level setup on the West Coast that could yield the kinematics downstream of that top analog, it's what the 12z Euro showed at the end of its run.

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Possible classic 2-3 day setup.  Really happy to see the 18z GFS get back in line with a Euro like solution.  The 12z run just looked strange, anyways.  If something similar to this verifies, I will find a way to make it down.

 

"Classic" may be a bit strong of a word, but something to actually look forward to it seems.

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00z GFS goes back to the 12z solution with a less organized, shallow trough for next week.

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00z GFS goes back to the 12z solution with a less organized, shallow trough for next week.

 

I don't think its quite as bad as the 12z solution but its obviously not near as optimistic as the 18z... holding on to hope while the Euro holds on.

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The GFS has some incredibly cold mid level temperatures (cold even for a winter setup) even with this weaker look, instability should not have much trouble developing regardless of the trough evolution in the end.

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I think the trough amplitude and organization will play a big role on determining the ceiling for Wednesday, but I'm not sure it's as big a deal on Tuesday, which is forced more by a lead wave.

 

For Plains interests and chasing purposes, I'm already more focused on Tuesday, to be honest. Taking the 00z GFS verbatim, I'm finding little to complain about at H+120 for an early April setup. Excellent shear profiles and adequate instability with convective initiation along the ABI-LTS corridor. I'll take that with a smile on my face. The potential for tornadic supercells would certainly be worth talking about with this solution.

 

My biggest concern right now is with any slowing trend that delays Tuesday's moisture return and/or calls CI into question. Wednesday is certainly worth watching too and I'll dig into it later, but I don't think its chance to be a good chase day is very high.

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00z Euro is still looking very threatening into the long range, that pattern with a series of UL waves dropping with a powerful and longitudinally extensive UL jet through the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska into the West Coast is associated with some big time events.

 

Edit: 12z GFS and Euro now both have another major upper trough as the lead system sets up the pattern succeeding it.

 

There are some serious alarm bells for what the Euro and its ensembles are showing from 192-240.

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The trough that plows through the C USA into the Northeast next weekend / week may possibly set up the last wintry threat. I still think 4/4-5 needs watching (the low that sets up threat toward 4/7-10) for the interior. Before the 4/7-10 event arrives here, it will likely be a prolific severe weather producer. Tropical forcing, analogs etc. all it's a "go" in that department.

 

Euro/ensembles still seem to agree with this.

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The system that comes in after the one from Wed-Fri next week has more potential than that.

 

Also, 300 hrs out on the post-truncated GFS is not going to verify.

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I'm going to wait for the 04/01 0z run of the GFS to see if I want to start a thread for the winter storm on April 3/4th.

 

 

Edit:  I can't stay awake, if someone else wants to start it depending on this evenings model suite, feel free.

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Just a sidenote since tomorrow is the focus, the Euro seems to be increasing the size of the warm sector with every run on Sunday with some highly favorable shear profiles and also a nearly ideal trough orientation (broad, negative tilt, but still with a very potent mid level jet) for tornadic supercells across LA, MS and AL.

 

It actually reminds me a bit of the Christmas system from 2012.

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Not sure if anybody wants to start a thread for this.  The SPC has a 15% with hatched outlook for tomorrow (Sunday). This would probably fit in our sub-forum if the action is in Texas and Louisiana.  The SREF significant tornado ingredients is pretty high for Louisiana. That's something to consider.

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Ugh, it's April already. Can't we be done with patterns that look like this?

 

Bkf1-VHCAAAfZWy.jpg

 

If you can't tell, I'm getting a little sick of NW flow with upstream high amplitude ridging...

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Not sure if anybody wants to start a thread for this.  The SPC has a 15% with hatched outlook for tomorrow (Sunday). This would probably fit in our sub-forum if the action is in Texas and Louisiana.  The SREF significant tornado ingredients is pretty high for Louisiana. That's something to consider.

 

I'm not expecting too much, but it'll definitely be something to keep an eye on. CAPE will be pretty marginal and I haven't looked yet, but the lapse rates probably won't be anything to write home about either, but shear will be nice and hospitable for any storms that do develop. It'll be interesting to see what we get tomorrow.

 

I wish all that rain east of me would fall across Texas. That would be nice...

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The CFS continues to show change after mid-month...We'll see if it sticks.

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As is tradition for this season thus far, a once promising threat is starting to look more and more "meh."  Next Saturday was looking like a promising setup (especially on the 00z Euro last night), but the GFS really just went the other direction today and basically killed it. Lagging all of the favorable winds way too far south and west of the favorable instability.  The 12z  Euro didn't kill it as bad as the GFS did, but it still was showing the same kind of lagging trend.  The encouraging thing is that the Euro was still showing a 996 mb low with CAPE values approaching 2000+ in the KS/NE region.  I'm hoping this is a classic case of one bad run, but I'm thinking that we are just trending towards another vanilla setup.

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As is tradition for this season thus far, a once promising threat is starting to look more and more "meh." Next Saturday was looking like a promising setup (especially on the 00z Euro last night), but the GFS really just went the other direction today and basically killed it. Lagging all of the favorable winds way too far south and west of the favorable instability. The 12z Euro didn't kill it as bad as the GFS did, but it still was showing the same kind of lagging trend. The encouraging thing is that the Euro was still showing a 996 mb low with CAPE values approaching 2000+ in the KS/NE region. I'm hoping this is a classic case of one bad run, but I'm thinking that we are just trending towards another vanilla setup.

Have had my eyes in this time-frame, but the whole setup keeps trending toward less impressive. The trough axis is too positively tilted and despite some decent instability, there really isn't much appreciable kinematic support. We'll see if this changes. Some of the 12z Euro ensemble members look OK for the Plains on Saturday, but the threat seems to diminish by Sunday, perhaps outside of south/east Texas. Still some time for the setup to evolve, but I'm not overly excited. It looks like we then get back into another quiet period for the beginning of next week too.

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As is tradition for this season thus far, a once promising threat is starting to look more and more "meh."  Next Saturday was looking like a promising setup (especially on the 00z Euro last night), but the GFS really just went the other direction today and basically killed it. Lagging all of the favorable winds way too far south and west of the favorable instability.  The 12z  Euro didn't kill it as bad as the GFS did, but it still was showing the same kind of lagging trend.  The encouraging thing is that the Euro was still showing a 996 mb low with CAPE values approaching 2000+ in the KS/NE region.  I'm hoping this is a classic case of one bad run, but I'm thinking that we are just trending towards another vanilla setup.

 

I was watching this for several days, as well, but all the trends are in the wrong direction. Not only is it currently looking like yet another case of mis-timing (i.e., the H5 trough axis is where you want it to be for a chase at 12z Sun), but the 1030 mb high oozing down the Plains is likely to result in a crashing cold front akin to most of our April 2013 setups. Because of the cold air, which will in all likelihood arrive sooner than modeled, I'd be shocked if Sunday amounts to anything. Our only hope is likely to be Saturday, and that requires the stars to align: moisture return on the high end of the guidance envelope and faster timing of the wave.

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