Extreme, Cat.-4/-5 hurricanes in U.S.--trends

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah you're totally wrong here dude. Josh is right.

1938 flattened entire sections forests with widespread structural damage from the wind. The damage was consistent with low end cat 3 damage in southern CT, Long Island, and S RI. It's pretty well documented by photographs and accounts. Not really much of a mystery here.

While horrific, Sandy's surge was pretty much what you'd expect to see given a storm arriving at high tide moving at that direction. New York City and the western part of Long Island Sound is particularly vulnerable to storm surge given the geography of the coast. If anything we've been lucky in the past. I really wouldn't say Sandy was anywhere near a worst case scenario to be honest. The impact of the 1938 storm on the region would be hard to fathom IMO.

Thank you. Agreed.

Or worse, a storm of the intensity of the Long Island Express combined with the size of Sandy and/or the tidal element.

The 1938 hurricane had a higher "tidal element" (storm surge) than Sandy. The only category Sandy "wins" is gale radius-- which is hardly surprising, since it was a nor'easter without a core.

[HurricaneJosh]

Completely agree. The thought of something similar to 1938 occurring again is completely frightening. We'd be looking at millions without power for several weeks and maybe even longer. It's a highly scary thought and I don't even know how you'd explain that to people.

The power outages would be the least of it.

[andyhb]

The 1938 hurricane had a higher "tidal element" (storm surge) than Sandy. The only category Sandy "wins" is gale radius-- which is hardly surprising, since it was a nor'easter without a core.

I didn't mean tidal element as in storm surge itself, I mean enhancement regarding the tidal cycle, although the LIE did come in near the Fall Equinox, Sandy also received enhancement from the Full Moon, I suppose the worst case would involve the combination of a Full Moon and near the Fall Equinox (Harvest Moon). I'm not trying to downplay the Long Island Express in any sense...

I'm talking about a combination of roughly the strength of the LIE with the gale radius of Sandy.

[weatherwiz]

The power outages would be the least of it.

Yes, absolutely...I just don't want to think of it. The devastation would be imaginable...don't even want to think of it.

[andyhb]

Yes, absolutely...I just don't want to think of it. The devastation would be imaginable unimaginable...don't even want to think of it.

FYP.

Sandy (and Irene, to a lesser extent) exposed the massive weakness that the NE has for tropical systems.

[weatherwiz]

FYP.

Sandy (and Irene, to a lesser extent) exposed the massive weakness that the NE has for tropical systems.

Yeah...I screwed up my wording there.

You're completely correct, Irene and Sandy both exposed the major weaknesses that exist across the NE and especially along the coast. The one thing both these systems did as well is (hopefully) gave people a wake up call...and I say this without hopefully getting any backlash but at least people here experiencing something like this will now shed light in their eyes so if/when something like '38 occurs hopefully people will not only know how to better prepare but will understand the consequences.

The thing is though, how do you prepare for something like that? Is it just evacuating and going to a safe place? Obviously lives are most important but when dealing with the thought of losing everything nobody wants to deal with that.

[andyhb]

The thing is though, how do you prepare for something like that? Is it just evacuating and going to a safe place? Obviously lives are most important but when dealing with the thought of losing everything nobody wants to deal with that.

To put it simply, I don't think there is anyway you really can.

[weatherwiz]

To put it simply, I don't think there is anyway you really can.

I don't think so either. Only thing you can really do is just make sure you and your family are safe and taking every precaution there is to do so...such as evacuating

[andyhb]

I don't think so either. Only thing you can really do is just make sure you and your family are safe and taking every precaution there is to do so...such as evacuating

Unfortunately, a lot of people don't think that way (in terms of putting their possessions before their lives).

[weatherwiz]

Unfortunately, a lot of people don't think that way (in terms of putting their possessions before their lives).

Unfortunately so...I just hope Irene and Sandy perhaps changed some people's views.

[Ground Scouring]

The power outages would be the least of it.

The fact that the power outages were the first thing Ryan (wiz) mentioned as a problem goes to show how many people do not realize how much worse a 1938-type storm could be in the Northeast. I know that in the debate on Sandy vs. 1938, my suggestion that 1938 may have been larger was discredited...but my main point in that whole argument was what you have been saying: that aside from size--which is not totally certain for older storms--Sandy does not come close to 1938 in intensity, surge, wind speed, flooding, etc. This ties into what I have been suggesting here and elsewhere: in many respects the U.S. has been somewhat fortunate since 1961. A large, intense Category-4/5 hurricane has not struck the United States since Carla...and an average-sized one has not hit since Camille 1969. During the inactive phase 1969-1994, the sole landfalling Cat-4/5, Andrew, was so small that hurricane-force winds did not occur more than ~20 mi or so from the eye. And since the active +AMO began in 1995, an even smaller Cat-4 Charley failed to produce a big punch--in terms of surge and rainfall--aside from high winds.

All the other recent majors to approach the U.S., while still quite destructive, were not as bad as they could have been (and unfortunately, I have to include Katrina in this):

Opal 1995--Very large in size (hurricane winds 145 mi from center, gales 260 mi), peaked at 130 kt, but weakened rapidly to just 100 kt before landfall...would have caused even larger surge had it been Cat-4 at LF given large size

Bonnie 1998--Also large in size (hurricane winds 115 mi from center, gales 230 mi), peaked at 100 kt, may have been 110 kt due to flight-level winds, weakened to 95 kt at LF...possibly generous, may have been closer to 85 kt at LF

Bret 1999--Peaked at 120 kt, weakened to 100 kt at LF...small in size but weakening was surprising due to favorable upper-level winds...and had a great radar presentation even at LF, at least compared to more recent Gulf majors like Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita

Floyd 1999--Obviously very large (same size as that of Bonnie 1998), peaked at 135 kt, weakened significantly to 90 kt before LF...may have been a bit weaker at LF

Lili 2002--Completely collapsed like Carmen 1974, peaked at 125 kt but fell apart to 80 kt at LF, may have even been a bit weaker at LF...fairly large, hurricane winds 70 mi from center, gales 195 mi

Isabel 2003--Among the worst-case scenarios for the Chesapeake region due to angle of approach and large size, hurricane winds 115 mi from center, gales 345 mi...was 145 kt at peak, 90 kt at LF...gridded H*Wind analysis largely supports 90-95 kt at LF, which cannot be said for many of the other majors listed here...as H*Wind is so often lower than the official intensity (as for Jeanne 2004 etc.)

Frances 2004--Seemed initially like a 1928-style repeat for Palm Beach and Martin Counties...peaked at 125 kt just three days before LF, but was greatly sheared within 24 hours...90 kt at LF...fairly large throughout its life...imagine a 1928-type storm crawling across SE FL at 125 kt

Ivan 2004--Was well-organized at 120 kt just 24 hours before LF in AL...hit at 105 kt with poor radar presentation...hurricane winds 105 mi from center, gales 260 mi...Cat-4 LF would have increased 16-ft. surge due to large size

Jeanne 2004--As we have discussed before, there are some data suggesting Jeanne was only a high-end Cat-2 at landfall, and other accounts suggest Frances was worse...also, the satellite and radar presentation was very poor compared to that of other, strengthening majors...dry-air intrusion, warm convection, dry slot in S quadrant

Dennis 2005--Was 125 kt less than 24 hours before LF...weakened to 105 kt but had a much better radar presentation than did Ivan, Katrina, and Rita at LF...still had an intact, small, inner core with evidence of Cat-3 winds in a small area

Katrina 2005--Terrible though it was, it was initially expected to be a strong Cat-4 or Cat-5 at LF...hit instead as a strong Cat-3...a Cat-5 LF, with such a large wind field, would have generated a surge close to 40 ft. rather than 28 ft.--due to higher IKE index

Rita 2005--Radar tells the story that this large TC really collapsed before striking land...Cat-3 status is a bit questionable...may have been 95 kt at LF

Wilma 2005--Actually weakened just a bit from 110 to 105 kt at LF in SW FL...RMW missed Key West and did not bring maximum surge to the Keys...was biggest SE-FL hit since 1992, first real hurricane for most residents...but since it came from the SW, it weakened to a Cat-2 over land and only brought low-end Cat-1 winds to most areas--definitely far from the worst SE FL has seen historically

People keep talking about CC and major-hurricane increases...but to me, what really matters is how strong those majors are at LF. Compared to similar active cycles in the 1920s-1960s--when the U.S. sustained hits by larger and stronger Cat-4/5 hurricanes, legends like 1926 Miami, 1928 Okeechobee, 1945 Homestead, 1947 Fort Lauderdale, 1949 Palm Beach, 1960 Donna, 1961 Carla, 1965 Betsy (which I really think was a Cat-4 in LA due to wind measurements at Grand Isle and H*Wind analysis), and 1969 Camille--the 1990s-2000s have been rather tame. We have yet to see a large or even average-sized Cat-4/5 hit the U.S. since 1995...and when it does, the results will not be pretty.

My big concern is that, should a such a storm (or a regional benchmark like 1938) arrive, people might elevate storms like Sandy to the worst in their collective conscious and be unable to wrap their minds around a worse event. So I would really inveigh against elevating many of the recent storms like Sandy, as the U.S. from 1926-1969--the last +AMO cycle--went through storms that would be far more costly than Sandy if they were to hit today.

[HurricaneJosh]

Snowflake, I agree with the broad premise of your post-- that elevating a strong nor'easter to some mythical level in the pantheon of hurricane history is really dangerous, as folks aren't going to know what hit them when a real 'cane comes along.

A large, intense Category-4/5 hurricane has not struck the United States since Carla...and an average-sized one has not hit since Camille 1969. During the inactive phase 1969-1994, the sole landfalling Cat-4/5, Andrew, was so small that hurricane-force winds did not occur more than ~20 mi or so from the eye.

One thing, though: the USA has been hit by a large, solid Cat 4 since 1961: Hugo.

Also, while Andrew was smallish, it wasn't that small. It was maybe smaller than average but it was no Iris or Charley.

[Ginx snewx]

interesting GIS, USGS put out on Sandy , some impressive 16 foot tidal surges especially near Staten Island, not bad for a warm core Noreaster

http://54.243.149.25...db8e92e3239837e

[Ginx snewx]

Snowflake, I agree with the broad premise of your post-- that elevating a strong nor'easter to some mythical level in the pantheon of hurricane history is really dangerous, as folks aren't going to know what hit them when a real 'cane comes along.

One thing, though: the USA has been hit by a large, solid Cat 4 since 1961: Hugo.

Also, while Andrew was smallish, it wasn't that small. It was maybe smaller than average but it was no Iris or Charley.

For NJ and NYC it was historical and much more than a strong Nor'easter. Yes a 38 would absolutely destroy that area. In all of the history of hurricanes, no hurricane achieved what Sandy did in NJ and NYC surge level wise. Sandy was the most destructive Hurricane in modern NJ NYC history. It was warm core until landfall , this is not a hurricane?

[HurricaneJosh]

For NJ and NYC it was historical and much more than a strong Nor'easter. Yes a 38 would absolutely destroy that area. In all of the history of hurricanes, no hurricane achieved what Sandy did in NJ and NYC surge level wise. Sandy was the most destructive Hurricane in modern NJ NYC history. It was warm core until landfall , this is not a hurricane?

According to the NHC, it was not a hurricane. I followed up with a couple of my friends over there-- who are Specialists-- and they said it wasn't. The various wind-field analyses I've seen-- not just this one but others as well-- do not suggest a hurricane structure. In the 1938 'cane, the highest winds were in the core-- not so with Sandy.

Re: the surges... Some specific locations had their highest surges in Sandy, but 1938 produced higher surges overall. Keep in mind that in any event, some specific locations are going to get their highest surges ever.

[Ed Lizard]

Might have been Dr. Hart with the paper about 1938 being a warm seclusion, or 1938 was a lot like Sandy except a Cat or 3 higher when East of Florida (not sure how people can say 1938 was a Cat 5 East of Florida except extrapolating backwards from Cat 3 conditions at landfall) than Sandy, and started the conversion to a hybrid system later. The 40 or 50 mph forward speed seems to suggest it was strongly influnced by the polar jet.

I'm not sure any system reaches the Northeast as a pure tropical cyclone. For one thing, it seems that the rain almost shuts off with all the eye passages I am familar with. Forgive me if my recollection of Bob is 20 years old and mainly from the Weather Channel, but I think even Bob wasn't symetrical as far as rainfall at landfall.

Down here, the last tropical cyclone of note, we had serious rains and winds still when the collapsing eye was Northeast of us.

Side note, as Josh has mentioned in prior threads, I grain of salt 120 knot wind claims from tropical cyclones that happened more than about 50 years ago...

[Ginx snewx]

According to the NHC, it was not a hurricane. I followed up with a couple of my friends over there-- who are Specialists-- and they said it wasn't. The various wind-field analyses I've seen-- not just this one but others as well-- do not suggest a hurricane structure. In the 1938 'cane, the highest winds were in the core-- not so with Sandy.

Re: the surges... Some specific locations had their highest surges in Sandy, but 1938 produced higher surges overall. Keep in mind that in any event, some specific locations are going to get their highest surges ever.

I am referring specifically to NYC NJ, surges there blew away 38 because as you know they were NW sided, 38 mega surges were from New Haven East but really concentrated in a small area spatially compared to Sandy. Yes 38 had a tight core but was this(hurricane winds weaken with heights, hurricane centers are warmer than their surrounding environs)not true with Sandy? Maybe an unraveling hurricane but there are many cases of that in the annals of history. It is a semantics issue I realize but historically this will go down as the most destructive Hurricane to hit NYC NJ even if right before landfall it was ET. I can guarantee no one will remember this as extra-tropical storm Sandy.

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[HurricaneJosh]

Might have been Dr. Hart with the paper about 1938 being a warm seclusion, or 1938 was a lot like Sandy except a Cat or 3 higher when East of Florida (not sure how people can say 1938 was a Cat 5 East of Florida except extrapolating backwards from Cat 3 conditions at landfall) than Sandy, and started the conversion to a hybrid system later. The 40 or 50 mph forward speed seems to suggest it was strongly influnced by the polar jet.

I'm not sure any system reaches the Northeast as a pure tropical cyclone. For one thing, it seems that the rain almost shuts off with all the eye passages I am familar with. Forgive me if my recollection of Bob is 20 years old and mainly from the Weather Channel, but I think even Bob wasn't symetrical as far as rainfall at landfall.

Down here, the last tropical cyclone of note, we had serious rains and winds still when the collapsing eye was Northeast of us.

Side note, as Josh has mentioned in prior threads, I grain of salt 120 knot wind claims from tropical cyclones that happened more than about 50 years ago...

I agree that no 'cane gets up there in a pristine, tropical state. That having been said, some do get up there essentially tropical. Carol 1954, in particular, apparently reached Long Island and CT/RI with a relatively small core of high winds-- perhaps because it happened in August. Even with Gloria 1985, I remember the highest winds and most of the damage happening just before the calm-- so, despite the structural changes, the cyclone still had a wind core.

I do not think 1938's structure was anything like Sandy's. The 1938 storm had a core and an actual eye, and the high winds did not extend infinitely to the E; if I remember correctly, the winds were much higher in LI, CT, and RI than they were on Cape Cod, where they dropped off a bit. (I'll need to check this.)

The 1938/Sandy comparisons remain misguided. There's no comparison-- qualitatively or quantitatively. Apples and oranges.

[Ginx snewx]

Might have been Dr. Hart with the paper about 1938 being a warm seclusion, or 1938 was a lot like Sandy except a Cat or 3 higher when East of Florida (not sure how people can say 1938 was a Cat 5 East of Florida except extrapolating backwards from Cat 3 conditions at landfall) than Sandy, and started the conversion to a hybrid system later. The 40 or 50 mph forward speed seems to suggest it was strongly influnced by the polar jet.

I'm not sure any system reaches the Northeast as a pure tropical cyclone. For one thing, it seems that the rain almost shuts off with all the eye passages I am familar with. Forgive me if my recollection of Bob is 20 years old and mainly from the Weather Channel, but I think even Bob wasn't symetrical as far as rainfall at landfall.

Down here, the last tropical cyclone of note, we had serious rains and winds still when the collapsing eye was Northeast of us.

Side note, as Josh has mentioned in prior threads, I grain of salt 120 knot wind claims from tropical cyclones that happened more than about 50 years ago...

I had 8 inches of rain with Bob on the collapsing NW outer eye wall in SW RI, across the Bay in Newport I believe there was less than 1.

[Ginx snewx]

I agree that no 'cane gets up there in a pristine, tropical state. That having been said, some do get up there essentially tropical. Carol 1954, in particular, apparently reached Long Island and CT/RI with a relatively small core of high winds-- perhaps because it happened in August. Even with Gloria 1985, I remember the highest winds and most of the damage happening just before the calm-- so, despite the structural changes, the cyclone still had a wind core.

I do not think 1938's structure was anything like Sandy's. The 1938 storm had a core and an actual eye, and the high winds did not extend infinitely to the E; if I remember correctly, the winds were much higher in LI, CT, and RI than they were on Cape Cod, where they dropped off a bit. (I'll need to check this.)

The 1938/Sandy comparisons remain misguided. There's no comparison-- qualitatively or quantitatively. Apples and oranges.

You are very correct about CC winds, 38 was very tight, yea no comparison wind wise or depth of surge wise.

[HurricaneJosh]

I am referring specifically to NYC NJ, surges there blew away 38 because as you know they were NW sided, 38 mega surges were from New Haven East but really concentrated in a small area spatially compared to Sandy. Yes 38 had a tight core but was this(hurricane winds weaken with heights, hurricane centers are warmer than their surrounding environs)not true with Sandy? Maybe an unraveling hurricane but there are many cases of that in the annals of history. It is a semantics issue I realize but historically this will go down as the most destructive Hurricane to hit NYC NJ even if right before landfall it was ET. I can guarantee no one will remember this as extra-tropical storm Sandy.

1. Again, in every hurricane, some specific locations have their highest surges ever. I agree that Sandy had heavier effects in NJ than did the 1938 storm-- of course. But that doesn't make Sandy a worse storm.

2. Re: 1938's surges, don't forget Long Island, where some of the most extreme surges happened.

3. It's not that 1938 had a tight core-- it didn't. It's just that is had a core. Sandy did not have a core, because it was a nor'easter. There was no eye, no eyewall. There was a wind shift, of course, because it was a cyclone.

4. There are many cases of unraveling hurricanes, but 1938, 1944, Carol, Edna, Donna, Belle, Gloria, and Bob were still hurricanes when they reached the Northeast USA. Sandy wasn't. And I believe in postanalysis, they're going to show Sandy's transition to post-tropical happening earlier than what the operational map shows.

5. It's not actually just a semantics thing-- it has to do with sensible weather. A cyclone with a core of violent winds and an eye is a completely different experience than twelve ours of gales accompanied by a wind shift.

[Ed Lizard]

That 1938 still had a tropical cyclone core of intense winds may just mean it was further less far along in the transition to being fully extra-tropical than Sandy was. 38 also had a sharp bend left, it just happened after landfall.

I may be misunderstood, I wasn't arguing an equivalency between Sandy and 1938, one was barely tropical as it approached the coast, one still had much better defined tropical characteristics as far as wind field concentration. Just saying they aren't completely dissimilar.

[HurricaneJosh]

That 1938 still had a tropical cyclone core of intense winds may just mean it was further along in the transition to being fully extra-tropical than Sandy was. 38 also had a sharp bend left, it just happened after landfall.

I may be misunderstood, I wasn't arguing an equivalency between Sandy and 1938, one was barely tropical as it approached the coast, one still had much better defined tropical characteristics as far as wind field concentration. Just saying they aren't completely dissimilar.

OK, gotcha. My bad if I misunderstood. I think I've gotten too trigger-happy in trying to shoot down these comparisons.

[Ginx snewx]

OK, gotcha. My bad if I misunderstood. I think I've gotten too trigger-happy in trying to shoot down these comparisons.

Yea, 38 is in another league.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yea, 38 is in another league.

Glad we're on the same page about it.

[Amped]

For NJ and NYC it was historical and much more than a strong Nor'easter. Yes a 38 would absolutely destroy that area. In all of the history of hurricanes, no hurricane achieved what Sandy did in NJ and NYC surge level wise. Sandy was the most destructive Hurricane in modern NJ NYC history. It was warm core until landfall , this is not a hurricane?

Fastest winds are on the left side of the storm. I think long Island beat the del marva with onshore gusts, but it looks like this wasn't the case just offshore.

[Ground Scouring]

One thing, though: the USA has been hit by a large, solid Cat 4 since 1961: Hugo.

Also, while Andrew was smallish, it wasn't that small. It was maybe smaller than average but it was no Iris or Charley.

Oops...yes, somehow I omitted Hugo. Thanks for the heads-up. And I do understand your point re: Andrew, but then again I assume that you would know I am aware of the difference between Andrew and Charley/Iris. (I think I mentioned this somewhere in my post.)

My other point is that there have been many average- or large-sized Cat-4/5 hurricanes in the U.S., especially in the last +AMO cycle 1926-1969--but for some reason they have not happened since 1995.

Chris (bluewave) started an interesting thread that suggests the more-stable atmosphere in the Atlantic since 2005 has resulted in larger cyclones with lower-than-expected pressures for the given wind speeds. Might the dry air also be responsible for the lack of large and intense Cat-4/5 landfalls--in the U.S., as opposed to Central America--as we have since moved deeper into the active cycle?

[Ed Lizard]

Semi-OT, I had not heard the terms warm seclusion or warm occlusion until the NYC subforum 1938 thread. It explains the occasional powerful Nor'Easter that looks a lot like a TC on vis imagery, with a definite eye like feature.

Of course, those storms look not so hot on IR imagery, the clouds South of the center are low clouds, all the colder cloud tops are in the Northern half of the system.

That was kind of evident as well on close in vis imagery of Sandy, the SE sector being a vigorous circulation, but mostly low clouds.

[BrianLaverty]

Completely agree. The thought of something similar to 1938 occurring again is completely frightening. We'd be looking at millions without power for several weeks and maybe even longer. It's a highly scary thought and I don't even know how you'd explain that to people.

It would be the worst national disaster in the history of the US.

I have several books, with thousands of pictures that I have collected from the 38 Hurricane... The damage would be out of this world if this hit now.... several weeks? With the way the Rhode Island & Long Island coastlines are built right now, it would be like nothing we have ever seen.

I've heard many people compare the damage in NJ from Sandy too 1938 in Rhode Island and its not even close. Yes, the area right directly on the water is wiped out in some areas, but in Rhode Island, from Westerly to Cumberland- the damage was horrible. Woonsocket, for example, which is in the NE corner of RI and a good 40+ minute drive from the beach, got excessive damage, and there was even sand found in windows from it.

I will post some pictures that are probably pretty rare when I get around to it... but the damage is out of this world, and that was 70+ years ago. The way Rhode Island has been built, it would be so much worse.

[HurricaneJosh]

It would be the worst national disaster in the history of the US.

I have several books, with thousands of pictures that I have collected from the 38 Hurricane... The damage would be out of this world if this hit now.... several weeks? With the way the Rhode Island & Long Island coastlines are built right now, it would be like nothing we have ever seen.

I've heard many people compare the damage in NJ from Sandy too 1938 in Rhode Island and its not even close. Yes, the area right directly on the water is wiped out in some areas, but in Rhode Island, from Westerly to Cumberland- the damage was horrible. Woonsocket, for example, which is in the NE corner of RI and a good 40+ minute drive from the beach, got excessive damage, and there was even sand found in windows from it.

I will post some pictures that are probably pretty rare when I get around to it... but the damage is out of this world, and that was 70+ years ago. The way Rhode Island has been built, it would be so much worse.

Agreed-- and it's what I've been saying all along.

I don't think a lot of people realize what a nuclear-grade cyclone 1938 was. It was really off the charts-- probably a 200- or 300-year event. (I say that because, as per Brian Jarvinen, it was probably the strongest in this region since the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, which might even have been a little stronger than 1938!) Central and E Long Island, E CT, and RI just got totally, 100% blasted. And it wasn't just storm surge; the winds were extremely severe.

If that happened today... whoa.

P.S. Please post your pics! They'd be awesome to see.