HoarfrostHubb Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Warmth incoming. Try to beat the KFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I'd probably guess this right now: BOS: 1 PVD: 1 ORH: 0 BDL: 2 or 3 BDL can prob sneak a 90F on friday...lower probability for PVD. WSW wind is a bad wind direction for ORH to hit 90F in a marginal setup. WNW and esp NW is much better. But if 850 temps can trend a bit warmer, then it would still reach 90F anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 KFS had 4 so I have to go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I'd probably guess this right now: BOS: 1 PVD: 1 ORH: 0 BDL: 2 or 3 BDL can prob sneak a 90F on friday...lower probability for PVD. WSW wind is a bad wind direction for ORH to hit 90F in a marginal setup. WNW and esp NW is much better. But if 850 temps can trend a bit warmer, then it would still reach 90F anyway. I voted bigger, but granted ... not with a lot of confidence. My big sticking point is the handling of the west-based NAO domain. I think it spurious that the models were pretty neutralized with it, than suddenly - particularly with the GFS - suddenly inserted a +1 SD anomaly in the D. Straight region ...now D4.5 if counting the 18z. It was 570+dm in the 12z, now 564. So not a lot of consistency there. It's just as likely the block is not real come to push, and or minored out enough to allow the rim of that ridge to press a bit further N. That said, the NAO progs are not positive, either - hence, the low confidence. But what hedges my bet to a low impact heat wave for the lower els is the fact that given a reason to be warm over the last 12 months - literally! - the verification seems to take a mile off the inch the models give. It's going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I voted bigger, but granted ... not with a lot of confidence. My big sticking point is the handling of the west-based NAO domain. I think it spurious that the models were pretty neutralized with it, than suddenly - particularly with the GFS - suddenly inserted a +1 SD anomaly in the D. Straight region ...now D4.5 if counting the 18z. It was 570+dm in the 12z, now 564. So not a lot of consistency there. It's just as likely the block is not real come to push, and or minored out enough to allow the rim of that ridge to press a bit further N. That said, the NAO progs are not positive, either - hence, the low confidence. But what hedges my bet to a low impact heat wave for the lower els is the fact that given a reason to be warm over the last 12 months - literally! - the verification seems to take a mile off the inch the models give. It's going to be interesting. Yeah I could see it being a bit warmer as we get closer...I was bit turned off by the sfc output and realtively weak wind by the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 At least BOS/ORH/PVD will record their first 80F this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 At least BOS/ORH/PVD will record their first 80F this month. The 00z GFS oper. backed off a bit more on that "new" D. Straight block, and the rim of the ridge went N a bit. That lends to the warmer vibe here. It's probable that this is a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Record highs Wed/ Thurs.. Front comes thru Fri..Maybe can sneak another 90 on Fri on NW downslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I think 1 ORH, 2 BOS, 2 PVD, 3 BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Well O ohh hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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