How many 90F+ days Week of 6/17-23 SNE Big 4

[HoarfrostHubb]

Warmth incoming. Try to beat the KFS

[ORH_wxman]

I'd probably guess this right now:

BOS: 1

PVD: 1

ORH: 0

BDL: 2 or 3

BDL can prob sneak a 90F on friday...lower probability for PVD.

WSW wind is a bad wind direction for ORH to hit 90F in a marginal setup. WNW and esp NW is much better. But if 850 temps can trend a bit warmer, then it would still reach 90F anyway.

[CoastalWx]

KFS had 4 so I have to go with that.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd probably guess this right now:

BOS: 1

PVD: 1

ORH: 0

BDL: 2 or 3

BDL can prob sneak a 90F on friday...lower probability for PVD.

WSW wind is a bad wind direction for ORH to hit 90F in a marginal setup. WNW and esp NW is much better. But if 850 temps can trend a bit warmer, then it would still reach 90F anyway.

I voted bigger, but granted ... not with a lot of confidence. My big sticking point is the handling of the west-based NAO domain. I think it spurious that the models were pretty neutralized with it, than suddenly - particularly with the GFS - suddenly inserted a +1 SD anomaly in the D. Straight region ...now D4.5 if counting the 18z. It was 570+dm in the 12z, now 564. So not a lot of consistency there. It's just as likely the block is not real come to push, and or minored out enough to allow the rim of that ridge to press a bit further N.

That said, the NAO progs are not positive, either - hence, the low confidence. But what hedges my bet to a low impact heat wave for the lower els is the fact that given a reason to be warm over the last 12 months - literally! - the verification seems to take a mile off the inch the models give.

It's going to be interesting.

[ORH_wxman]

I voted bigger, but granted ... not with a lot of confidence. My big sticking point is the handling of the west-based NAO domain. I think it spurious that the models were pretty neutralized with it, than suddenly - particularly with the GFS - suddenly inserted a +1 SD anomaly in the D. Straight region ...now D4.5 if counting the 18z. It was 570+dm in the 12z, now 564. So not a lot of consistency there. It's just as likely the block is not real come to push, and or minored out enough to allow the rim of that ridge to press a bit further N.

That said, the NAO progs are not positive, either - hence, the low confidence. But what hedges my bet to a low impact heat wave for the lower els is the fact that given a reason to be warm over the last 12 months - literally! - the verification seems to take a mile off the inch the models give.

It's going to be interesting.

Yeah I could see it being a bit warmer as we get closer...I was bit turned off by the sfc output and realtively weak wind by the Euro though.

[ORH_wxman]

At least BOS/ORH/PVD will record their first 80F this month.

[Typhoon Tip]

At least BOS/ORH/PVD will record their first 80F this month.

The 00z GFS oper. backed off a bit more on that "new" D. Straight block, and the rim of the ridge went N a bit. That lends to the warmer vibe here. It's probable that this is a fight.

[Damage In Tolland]

Record highs Wed/ Thurs.. Front comes thru Fri..Maybe can sneak another 90 on Fri on NW downslope

[weathafella]

I think 1 ORH, 2 BOS, 2 PVD, 3 BDL.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well O ohh hello