andyhb Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Any thoughts about Manitoba today? EHI and CAPE don't look as good as they did last night IMO. Ok, maybe I spoke too soon in response to this...look at the RAP into Southern MB (regarding the EHI values). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html Crossing our fingers... We are almost at Munich, ND. Still no sign of the cap breaking but I sure hope the HRRR is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Crossing our fingers... We are almost at Munich, ND. Still no sign of the cap breaking but I sure hope the HRRR is right. if you can score it might be a solid one. tough playing on the border like that.. even with passports. good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Latest model data is showing the CIN about gone in eastern North Dakota, with CAPE values exceeding 3,500 J/kg. Plenty of moisture being fed into this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 We have initiation in Cherry County, NE. A nice tower with 35.5 dBZ showing up on KLNX. We're near Murdo, SD now headed for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 We have initiation in Cherry County, NE. A nice tower with 35.5 dBZ showing up on KLNX. We're near Murdo, SD now headed for it. Just got pwned by dry air entrainment. Nice smoke plume heading up in there too btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Latest model data is showing the CIN about gone in eastern North Dakota, with CAPE values exceeding 3,500 J/kg. Plenty of moisture being fed into this as well. Clouds out there have the look of major capping layer to me. No vertical development whatsoever. Will have to see...it may take some nocturnal LLJ forcing after 01-02z to get anything going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Radar looked promising for a few scans, but the cells in Cherry County, Nebraska have faded due to the cap that baroclinic_instability mentioned in the previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Just got pwned by dry air entrainment. Nice smoke plume heading up in there too btw. See my post on this on the Mountain West Discussion. I think I can see the smoke on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Storm trying to go in between Grand Forks and Devils Lake just north of Hwy 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 If that storm gets its act together it will be moving into a highly favorable enviro near the ND/Canada border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 That storm is rapidly strengthening W of Park River, ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Day 2 discussion from the SPC boys and gals, I'm not entirely convinced on the Tornado threat, but I will defer to them. Dry line bulges looked better on the ECMWF yesterday than what they look like today. But if a nadar could spin up I still like the area to the West of the TC Metro, say around the Wilmar area. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM AROUND MINNEAPOLIS NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF -9 C...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NE MN. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO LIKELY EXIST DUE TO 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHEN A CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 more trying to go up south.. which is good if you're in the u.s. as they seem to be moving pretty fast. looks like everyone crossed pretty far west.. might have to race back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 That storm is rapidly strengthening W of Park River, ND. I don't know about rapidly. In fact, per latest scan. struggling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Storm looks like it finally split, but it is just hauling...will be in CA soon most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Storm looks like it finally split, but it is just hauling...will be in CA soon most likely. Looks good but probably worth bailing south going to be tough for it to mature in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Storm looks like it finally split, but it is just hauling...will be in CA soon most likely. That cell went from about 39k tops to 43.4 fairly rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Hail report just came in.. 2" hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Storm looks like it finally split, but it is just hauling...will be in CA soon most likely. We are hauling but cant keep up with it no natter what we try. Low vclouds from surrounding storms are obstructing any good vviews too. Gah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 The cell that is developing near Frodville has gotten my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 We are hauling but cant keep up with it no natter what we try. Low vclouds from surrounding storms are obstructing any good vviews too. Gah! I agree with Ian, would just hold your locations and wait for storms farther S to push northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 We are hauling but cant keep up with it no natter what we try. Low vclouds from surrounding storms are obstructing any good vviews too. Gah! BTW...since u guys are way up there, I recommend the Blue Moose in GFK for brews when u head back south to Fargo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 I agree with Ian, would just hold your locations and wait for storms farther S to push northward. Scout for river crossings. stuf south looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Scout for river crossings. stuf south looks better. Yep, we just lleft Cavalier and are headed east to be in position for the rest of the storms. We just saw ssome DOWs head for the border. If only RU allowed us to cross into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 This is close enough to Grafton ND that I would be on alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 WFO Winnipeg has issued a tornado warning in advance of that storm in Pembina County, ND. Derek Heide is under the gun. That new tornado siren in Altona is probably screaming right now. Stay safe, Derek! TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:17 PM CDT SATURDAY 9 JUNE 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= R.M. OF MONTCALM INCLUDING EMERSON AND ST. JEAN BAPTISTE =NEW= R.M. OF RHINELAND INCLUDING ALTONA PLUM COULEE AND GRETNA. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 8:15 PM CDT, RADAR INDICATES A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 60 KM/H. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN ALTONA AND EMERSON AND THEN MOVE TOWARD LETELLIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 It looks like the PW is up to 1.6" for northern ND. I think that is the highest PW I've ever seen up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Nice wall cloud on the cell escaping into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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