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June 1st - 12th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Crossing our fingers... We are almost at Munich, ND. Still no sign of the cap breaking but I sure hope the HRRR is right.

if you can score it might be a solid one. tough playing on the border like that.. even with passports. ;) good luck!

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Latest model data is showing the CIN about gone in eastern North Dakota, with CAPE values exceeding 3,500 J/kg. Plenty of moisture being fed into this as well.

Clouds out there have the look of major capping layer to me. No vertical development whatsoever. Will have to see...it may take some nocturnal LLJ forcing after 01-02z to get anything going.

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Day 2 discussion from the SPC boys and gals, I'm not entirely convinced on the Tornado threat, but I will defer to them. Dry line bulges looked better on the ECMWF yesterday than what they look like today. But if a nadar could spin up I still like the area to the West of the TC Metro, say around the Wilmar area.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON

SHOW THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM AROUND

MINNEAPOLIS NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE

FORECAST IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A

SUPERCELL THREAT WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE

COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 700 MB

TEMPS OF -9 C...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH

SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON

INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A

50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NE MN. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT

WILL ALSO LIKELY EXIST DUE TO 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC

AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE

WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHEN

A CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT.

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more trying to go up south.. which is good if you're in the u.s. as they seem to be moving pretty fast. looks like everyone crossed pretty far west.. might have to race back east.

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Storm looks like it finally split, but it is just hauling...will be in CA soon most likely.

Looks good but probably worth bailing south going to be tough for it to mature in time

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WFO Winnipeg has issued a tornado warning in advance of that storm in Pembina County, ND. Derek Heide is under the gun. That new tornado siren in Altona is probably screaming right now. Stay safe, Derek!

TORNADO WARNING

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 8:17 PM CDT SATURDAY 9 JUNE 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING FOR:

=NEW= R.M. OF MONTCALM INCLUDING EMERSON AND ST. JEAN BAPTISTE

=NEW= R.M. OF RHINELAND INCLUDING ALTONA PLUM COULEE AND GRETNA.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

AT 8:15 PM CDT, RADAR INDICATES A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM

WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS

CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTH DAKOTA AND

MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 60 KM/H. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BORDER

BETWEEN ALTONA AND EMERSON AND THEN MOVE TOWARD LETELLIER.

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