NaoPos Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Anyone seeing a severe threat this week? Or we thinking mostly embedded elevated convection in isolated areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Anyone seeing a severe threat this week? Or we thinking mostly embedded elevated convection in isolated areas? i think its going to be more elevated than anything...seems like a lot of just hvy rain with imbedded storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Anyone seeing a severe threat this week? Or we thinking mostly embedded elevated convection in isolated areas? The latter. No severe from this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Maybe some elevated storms tomorrow? SPC has us in the see text and 5% on the Day 2 Outlook. Talking about multicell clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Mt Holly disco: "RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WILL GALL WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR (OR THE FALL LINE)...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WERE PLACES. FURTHER EAST...THE RAIN FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE NEBULOUS. WITH MOST OF THE FORCING (AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS) TO THE WEST...PARTS OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY COULD HAVE A FAIRLY RAIN FREE EVENING. THE AXIS OF BEST LOW LEVEL THETA E SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER 0600 UTC...AND BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE TONIGHT (IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN EXITING 200 MB JET) THE SHORT TERM MODEL QPF FORECAST FOLLOW THIS...AND THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT SHOULD SHIFT INTO NEW JERSEY. THIS IS WHEN EASTERN SECTIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STEADIER RAIN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 0Z GFS exhibits 2" for ILG and PHL while the NAM exhibits 1.2" and 1.5" for the same. Looks like the heaviest falls between 7p-7a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I hope all these muggy days are not a preview of this coming Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I hope all these muggy days are not a preview of this coming Summer. This, +8,000. Not looking forward to the 90/70+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 New Day 2, See Text for C and SJ, SE PA. ...MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... RELATIVELY NEBULOUS/MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE OF TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF STRONGER INSOLATION/HEATING COUPLED WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO REACH 1000-2000 J/KG IN MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST GA. SOME SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 If areas west of the city can get into some sun I can see a few thunderstorms pop. NAM's trying to make something happen tomorrow PM. I would think better chance south/west of city than north/east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 pouring to beat the band along 422 right now. might have to build me an ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 pouring to beat the band along 422 right now. might have to build me an ark. Just got soaked by that. Digital rain-gauge (which tends to overdue rain amounts) shows .22" in the past 10 minutes. 0.17" in the regular gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 downpour, drought cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I hope all these muggy rainy days are not a preview of this coming Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 .45" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 .45" so far That's it? I have 1.50" for the event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looking likely for some decent rains here, sucks for the people who work outside, but this is the rain we need for the lawns and gardens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 .52" so far in NW Chesco as of 7 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Up to 1.75" now, and still raining at a pretty good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Just started dumping in Berwyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 That's it? I have 1.50" for the event so far. If it was snow then I'd have your 1.5" and you would have 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 If it was snow then I'd have your 1.5" and you would have 0" Isn't that the truth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 1.10" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 1.11 so far today, 1.21 total so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 No rain gauge here...but it has been pouring for more than an hour and a half at my workplace near Lansdale, PA. Better to have this now than over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Up to 2.25". Seems the heavier rains are over, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Total rain since Monday: 1.17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 2.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 2.2", new downpour helped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 1.85 with more brewin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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