David Reimer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This isn't a chase setup. This is a rain-wrapped EF1-EF3 that no one ever sees coming setup. I agree that we could see a couple of brief, but intense tornadoes. I don't see this being particularly long lived, at least in their 'significant' stage. I do agree however we must keep an eye on this setup. Personally, if I have even a glimmer of hope for tomorrow, I'll be chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just for the record...I'm a little bit jealous of my family who are in New Orleans right now Because of the storms or the upcoming festivities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Long way for me to go for quick spin ups and lots of rain. Just to be safe ill wake up early and check the SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NO Cape at all now except immediate coast at 10PM Sat according to new NAM. Heavy rain maker only ?? http://www.instantweathermaps.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 All I know is I hit this plenty hard this morning mainly because I know people are traveling to the Coast for the 3 day weekend (President's Day) AND Mardi Gras. I'm in Columbus and I still believe areas to the south of here (US 80 like NC mentioned) are in a position to see severe weather. Tornadoes are still in play with this set up especially with so much spin in the atmosphere. It won't take much of an updraft to see something spin up. That low being so close is a concern but its placement is still being figured out and likely won't be until tomorrow afternoon; I'm talking more about East Central Alabama and West Central Georgia in that part. Areas along the Gulf Coast are almost given to see the stronger storms but areas as far north as Montgomery/Auburn/Opelika/Columbus/Butler/ and maybe Macon shouldn't let their guard down. I know some of you are looking at the chase prospects of this system, which aren't great as Tony alluded to, but even a brief touchdown in the wrong area can make this a big deal. As long as we continue to see high helicity values and a deepening low in the southeast, I'm going to continue to tell my viewers to be on guard tomorrow. Do I believe we'll see a Moderate Risk or hatched area tomorrow morning? Not really. Not with the morning update. In fact, we may see that Slight Risk pushed a little more south... The strong winds and heavy rain are going to be the bigger story, as long as the isolated tornadoes stay away from populated areas. I mean the forecast soundings show a TON of moisture, at least for mid-February, with precip. water >1.5" in some locations. Localized flooding and flash flooding are going to be issues to watch over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 All I know is I hit this plenty hard this morning mainly because I know people are traveling to the Coast for the 3 day weekend (President's Day) AND Mardi Gras. I'm in Columbus and I still believe areas to the south of here (US 80 like NC mentioned) are in a position to see severe weather. Tornadoes are still in play with this set up especially with so much spin in the atmosphere. It won't take much of an updraft to see something spin up. That low being so close is a concern but its placement is still being figured out and likely won't be until tomorrow afternoon; I'm talking more about East Central Alabama and West Central Georgia in that part. Areas along the Gulf Coast are almost given to see the stronger storms but areas as far north as Montgomery/Auburn/Opelika/Columbus/Butler/ and maybe Macon shouldn't let their guard down. I know some of you are looking at the chase prospects of this system, which aren't great as Tony alluded to, but even a brief touchdown in the wrong area can make this a big deal. As long as we continue to see high helicity values and a deepening low in the southeast, I'm going to continue to tell my viewers to be on guard tomorrow. Do I believe we'll see a Moderate Risk or hatched area tomorrow morning? Not really. Not with the morning update. In fact, we may see that Slight Risk pushed a little more south... The strong winds and heavy rain are going to be the bigger story, as long as the isolated tornadoes stay away from populated areas. I mean the forecast soundings show a TON of moisture, at least for mid-February, with precip. water >1.5" in some locations. Localized flooding and flash flooding are going to be issues to watch over the next 48 hours. I agree with this. The 00z trends are for the warm front not getting far enough inland for a significant severe threat. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Tornado Warning Statement as of 8:51 AM CST on February 18, 2012 The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Tornado Warning for... southern Acadia Parish in southwest Louisiana... this includes... Mermentau... Crowley... northeastern Cameron Parish in southwest Louisiana... this includes Klondike... southeastern Jefferson Davis Parish in southwest Louisiana... this includes... Lake Arthur... Jennings... northwestern Vermilion Parish in southwest Louisiana... this includes... Kaplan... Gueydan... * until 915 am CST * at 846 am CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Lake Arthur... moving east at 50 mph. * The tornado will be near... Riceville... Gueydan and Morse by 900 am CST... Wright and Egan by 905 am CST... Lyons Point... Kaplan and Crowley by 910 am CST... Precautionary/preparedness actions... National Weather Service radar indicates a tornado may form at any time. Take cover now! Abandon Mobile homes and vehicles. Move to an interior room or hallway on the lowest floor away from windows. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 am CST Saturday morning for southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. Please report severe weather to the National Weather Service at 337-477-5285 extension 1. Lat... Lon 2994 9273 3018 9277 3035 9234 2999 9222 time... Mot... loc 1451z 258deg 44kt 3004 9263 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Tornado reported 2 miles ESE of Rayne, Louisiana according to the SPC storm reports. Public reported floor shaking and freight train sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Rayne got slammed last year. Hope everything turns out alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Embedded supercell appears to be approaching the Poplarville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Some pretty good inflow into the warned circulation at the LA/MS border. Unclear whether it will produce a tornado, but it has a high probability of causing some wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The storms in southeastern MS have developed a hail threat in addition to the damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Semi-discrete supercell in S MS is looking more impressive now, appears to have a nasty hail core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 100 kt. TVS on that warned cell in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The storms in southeastern MS have developed a hail threat in addition to the damaging winds. Numerous damaging wind reports came in near the LA/MS border, and the first report of golf ball size hail appeared just before the storm changed shape and picked up a TOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Really scary storm north of Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Those winds out in front of that storm are incredible...just 70-80+mph winds everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 BTW: BMX has a new radar page with street mapping and high resolution radarscope/grlevel-like properties, which will be excellent for watching severe events http://www.srh.noaa....&lon=-87&zoom=8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Northern Mobile county in and around Citronelle should expect the storm to move in shortly if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Two TOR warnings now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Storm NE of Citronelle needs a warning and soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The MCS has re-organized after a weakening trend during the past hour. It looks to be rather intense just north of the AL/FL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Anyone else been watching the storm on the northern part of the line. Been showing supercellular characteristics for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Current tor cell in SE MS is going to approach the Mobile area in the next few minutes. Data is being skewed by the proximity to the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Current tor cell in SE MS is going to approach the Mobile area in the next few minutes. Data is being skewed by the proximity to the radar. Tornado has been reported with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 New tornado watch issued until 4am. It includes my area. So far there have been 38 storm reports. 2 of them tornadoes, 3 hail, and the rest wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 New tornado watch issued until 4am. It includes my area. So far there have been 38 storm reports. 2 of them tornadoes, 3 hail, and the rest wind. ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WARE...WESTERN PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN BACON AND WESTERN BRANTLEY COUNTIES FOR VALID UNTIL 1145 PM EST... AT 1038 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A PROVEN RECORD OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER CENTERED 29 MILES WEST OF MILLWOOD...OR 6 MILES EAST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IF THIS STORM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING MAY...REPEAT MAY...BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF BACON...BRANTLEY...PIERCE AND WARE COUNTIES. THIS STORM IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY AND PERSONS IN THESE COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TV WEATHER RADAR NOW AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EDIT JAX issues Tornado Warning for Bacon, Brantley, Pierce, Ware [GA] till 11:45 PM EST ...* AT 1100 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 20 MILES WEST OF DIXIE UNION...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PEARSON... MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. EDIT2 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EST FORSOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...NORTHWESTERN CLINCH AND ATKINSON COUNTIES...AT 1102 PM EST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6MILES SOUTH OF PEARSON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 EDIT EDIT2 Wow what are the chances! It goes tornado warned before hitting here. Then it has a history of producing severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wow what are the chances! It goes tornado warned before hitting here. Then it has a history of producing severe weather. You should probably take cover if you haven't yet, SRV couplet bearing down on Waycross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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