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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part I


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Fish gets a 40%. Should be short-lived as well.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES

EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT

GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING

NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS

AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER

WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH

SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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NHC has risen their 2pm TWO up to 40% on Invest 98L. It wouldn't take much for this to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the next 12-24 hours as it traverses the edge of the Gulf Stream.

A middle of nowhere storm does little for me, unless it was a long track true tropical storm that became a major and developed that classic look on satellite.

And this would kill my brilliant 'Price is Right' strategy for the July tropical forecast contest (0/0/0).

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A middle of nowhere storm does little for me, unless it was a long track true tropical storm that became a major and developed that classic look on satellite.

And this would kill my brilliant 'Price is Right' strategy for the July tropical forecast contest (0/0/0).

I'd start getting nervous If I were you Ed.

Starting to develop a banding feature along with that suspicous looking feature in the center.

GOES18152012206vuFSn1.jpg

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My last prediction on July 16 was for a lack of TC activity through August 2, with an uptick in tropical cyclone activity between August 3-13. This forecast is based off the location of active convection associated with a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave which is currently at the longitude of the Indian Basin. The superposition between this CCKW and the active convection of the MJO suggests that we might see an amplification of the RMM PCs into RMM phase 6 later this week, with counterclockwise through the western Hemisphere. Of course... this remains to be seen!

I could have made the same forecast without the help of the MJO or Jupiter. :pimp:

(don't be offended; I'm just messing with you).

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From the CPC Global Hazard Analysis.

Matches what Mike V said earlier.

The week-2 outlook is uncertain due to a continued weak MJO signal and is largely based on model guidance. Above-normal rainfall is expected to continue across the Philippines, western Pacific, and may extend north to South Korea and southern Japan depending on the track of expected tropical cyclone activity. Elevated chances for tropical cyclone development are forecast in the South China Sea and western Pacific. Below normal rainfall is expected to expand eastward to the western Maritime Continent.Late in week-2 and beyond this period, conditions may become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic.

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Oh, good 98L has fizzled a little.

Wondering if the lead wave will be a sacrificial anode, and take the hit clearing out the SAL for the next wave. GFS has just started, but even if the disturbance coming off Africa has a future, it looks to be starting a bit too far North to have too much of a shot of making it across. But, as always, glass 7/128th full optimism.

Even if it doesn't develop, it is nice to see waves over Africa, anyway.

post-138-0-53812800-1343188238_thumb.jpg

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It looks like they are going to keep 98L from making it to TC status, although its certainly arguable either way. Could be another storm that will be upgraded in the post-season.

Last nights WindSat: 50-55 knot wind barbs is certainly impressive if uncontaminated.

2ijoj.jpg

Current Visible Imagery:

34zx104.jpg

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Explosive convective developement in the Gulf this morning, from that remnant vorticity. Small chance of brief homebrew?

http://www.ssd.noaa....x/loop-avn.html

HRRR is agressive to say the least. I am a bit more skeptical however unless we can start seeing signs of a mid-level vortex developing on radar. So far there are hints on radar of some turning, but nothing nearly as impressive at HRRR would like you to believe. Still worth watching.

son8rt.png

2q3xhj7.gif

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HRRR is agressive to say the least. I am a bit more skeptical however unless we can start seeing signs of a mid-level vortex developing on radar. So far there are hints on radar of some turning, but nothing nearly as impressive at HRRR would like you to believe. Still worth watching.

NW to WNW low level flow N of the convection. No development in this area for the time being... ;)

sat_vis_se_loop.gif

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NW to WNW low level flow N of the convection. No development in this area for the time being... ;)

sat_vis_se_loop.gif

I'm less than optimistic because nothing but the HRRR seems to like it, but is also has Westerly flow South of the blob, so I'd call it a wash.

Pressures between 1016 and 1018 mb wouldn't seem to indicate this would be in any hurry. BUt based on generally favorable 10 knots Easterly shear, some low and mid level vorticity (although not well aligned), and favorable divergence/convergence UL/LL, and a 2.2 PW at TLH, I remain glass 9/132nds optimistically glass full.

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While the cloud tops are warming with the storm complex over the Gulf of Mexico, it has generated a rather robust mid-level circulation. If the HRRR is to be believed (and thats a big if!) convection is expected to refire over this developing circulation center early tomorrow morning during the diurnal max. I wouldn't count that out just yet give the favorable upper level conditions over the system currently.

e6x8nm.gif

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We gonna get a Gulf cyclone, Phil? :wub:

The mid level circulation is pretty evident on infrared satellite imagery currently. There is still a patch of stratiform convection associated with this circulation. As long as the mid-level center remains intact we should see a resurgence in the convective activity overnight during the diurnal max. The problem is the more recent HRRR model runs show decoupling between the mid-level circulation and the low-level reflection, which is a sign that vertical wind shear might be picking up over the next 12-15 hours. In fact that already seems like it might be happening looking at an IR loop.

1s12rs.jpg

HRRR Forecast at 15z:

nh1apd.png

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We have the potential Euro fish in 10 days, 3 runs in a row. And it might come close enough to New England for some Cape Cod wave watching parties, and as a glass ha;f full guy, maybe 10 day forecast is a couple of hundred miles too far East. You say weenie, I say natural born optimist.

Buoy offshore Islip running mid, even upper 70s and it isn't even August yet.

The Gulf cyclone thing not working out is ok, I got more rain yesterday. My lawn is good.

post-138-0-41926200-1343299623_thumb.gif

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*yawn*

HPC:

ATLANTIC AND CARRIBBEAN BASINS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE

FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD AS SEEN BY VELOCITY POTENTIAL

ANOMALIES WHILE THE WESTERN PACIFIC REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE. AN

EASTERLY WAVE MAY APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLIES TUES/WED WITH A

DECREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING THIS THAN PREVIOUS

DAYS AND ENCOUNTERING MORE SHEAR AND LESS MOISTURE LESSENING ITS

CHANCE OF MUCH IMPACT.

post-32-0-72073200-1343306975_thumb.jpg

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*yawn*

HPC:

ATLANTIC AND CARRIBBEAN BASINS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE

FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD AS SEEN BY VELOCITY POTENTIAL

ANOMALIES WHILE THE WESTERN PACIFIC REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE. AN

EASTERLY WAVE MAY APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLIES TUES/WED WITH A

DECREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING THIS THAN PREVIOUS

DAYS AND ENCOUNTERING MORE SHEAR AND LESS MOISTURE LESSENING ITS

CHANCE OF MUCH IMPACT.

Steve, On July 25th the MJO was in phase 5. Phases 6 and 7 are usually unfavorable for development especially for the western Carribean (sp?) and Gulf of Mexico. Phases 1 and 2 are usually the good phases and they are still probably a couple of weeks away....at least to this non tropical guy.

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