nycsnow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For the 12/27-28 time frame, possible split flow WITH nice ridging out west kicking the SE ridge to the curb for a little with a fresh canadian airmass and a northern \ southern stream phase? mmmm, drool. May even get a little help over the top of greenland for that one I like that date to, hmmmmmm wonder why that date sticks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS looks to bring some cold in around hr 200 and beyond. Maybe christmas will be cold at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 At this point I just want to see some snow...a squall...a dusting..something to remind me its December. I'd hate to go the whole month with literally not even a flake. I noticed Sunday looks to not get out of the mid to upper 30s now. Is it just me or does it seem like the trend for the past few months has been cool on the weekends, moderating early week, torch mid week, precip and then cooling down again late in the week? Same I also love the hours before a storm even the day before waiting for flakes,cloudy out watching radar. Sun in the winter is boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 I like that date to, hmmmmmm wonder why that date sticks out we won't see anything like that storm with the NAO and AO as it is but there is def. some relaxation of the ridiculous positive anomolies over the top of greenland which could help. The bigger thing in that setup is what is happening out west with the split flow and nicely placed ridging into western canada. That keep the SE ridge at bay and gives us at least a shot at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For the 12/27-28 time frame, possible split flow WITH nice ridging out west kicking the SE ridge to the curb for a little with a fresh canadian airmass and a northern \ southern stream phase? mmmm, drool. May even get a little help over the top of greenland for that one Yeah saw that too. Hr 276 has some gorgeous confluence over SE Canada, ridge pushing some energy down into the plains. Probably wont happen given the teleconnections are the way they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 we won't see anything like that storm with the NAO and AO as it is but there is def. some relaxation of the ridiculous positive anomolies over the top of greenland which could help. The bigger thing in that setup is what is happening out west with the split flow and nicely placed ridging into western canada. That keep the SE ridge at bay and gives us at least a shot at something. Snow is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah saw that too. Hr 276 has some gorgeous confluence over SE Canada, ridge pushing some energy down into the plains. Probably wont happen given the teleconnections are the way they are What I see out west around the 27/28th is better than anything we have seen so far outside of 10/31. The split flow with the ridging gets rid of enemy #1, the SE ridge. Given where we have been, take that and roll the dice, at least there is a chance. We have had NO chances lately, including that turd last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS Soundings show .15" of precip as snow, for the hour 96-114 light overunning. At this point, that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS Soundings show .15" of precip as snow, for the hour 96-114 light overunning. At this point, that would be great. Better book Allsnow now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 CMC has the light over running too, plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It seems like the first real glimmer of hope we've had. I also like that the GFS has it getting colder around day 8 and running through the new year now. Might not exactly be an arctic outbreak but its at least a solid cooldown back to normal or a tad below. What I see out west around the 27/28th is better than anything we have seen so far outside of 10/31. The split flow with the ridging gets rid of enemy #1, the SE ridge. Given where we have been, take that and roll the dice, at least there is a chance. We have had NO chances lately, including that turd last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 and I won't post it because I really don't believe it, but it has a xmas snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 and I won't post it because I really don't believe it, but it has a xmas snow storm I like you like this! Lol things are looking up till 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Very nice to see GFS having support with GGEM with the overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Very nice to see GFS having support with GGEM with the overrunning event. yes, that has been trending the right way. Euro tried to do this yesterday but had no moisture its gonna be quick and its gonna rain the next day but hey, every flake counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 I like you like this! Lol things are looking up till 18z that one I am no where near excited about, but hey it could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 some ensemble agreement for the light over running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 12/23/11 threat on the CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm not afraid to post the CMC Christmas storm, It's a Miller A too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It seems like the first real glimmer of hope we've had. I also like that the GFS has it getting colder around day 8 and running through the new year now. Might not exactly be an arctic outbreak but its at least a solid cooldown back to normal or a tad below. While I agree that the timeframe of the 25-28th will have relatively cold air... each run keeps hinting at a total loss of cold air across most of North America in the very last few days of the year leading into New Year's.. to me, it looks downright balmy almost. That better start changing. I don't like that I keep seeing it run after run.. even though it's fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm not afraid to post the CMC Christmas storm, It's a Miller A too It's fun to look at but not realistic not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It's fun to look at but not realistic not yet. Maybe the CMC just has our snowstorm a little earlier, and I think that would be doable. Of course, it could delay it like the GFS or even have nothing in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro also now has the light overunning event, like the gfs and ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro also now has the light overunning event, like the gfs and ggem. Sure does: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 i'm not so sure that overrunning even falls as snow.. looks a bit too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 i'm not so sure that overrunning even falls as snow.. looks a bit too warm its snow on the gfs soundings the 540 line is a little north on the euro but 850's plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 i'm not so sure that overrunning even falls as snow.. looks a bit too warm Warm to start but column cools as the precip falls. We need more precip though. Would like to see models bump up precip amounts as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 those "events" never work out. the waa is always under forecast and whatever falls usually falls after the column warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 euro def. trended better its a small window for some flakes, no one should get too excited, but given the pattern, its nice to see. lets see where the euro goes after xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 those "events" never work out. the waa is always under forecast and whatever falls usually falls after the column warms. ewww. so not true. Maybe for the heat island of mount earthlight with your latitude but I ahve seem them work out plenty of times. Are they tough? You betcha, but as modeled today, it could work, and its got a better shot than what you were excited about last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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