MoWeatherguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 A bit of good news there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 00z GFS mean probably shows a large spread but it moves a low from just east of Little Rock to SW Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That's a pretty deep H5 trough at 168 hrs for a GFS mean, there must be some bigger solutions within that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 euro maps arent working for me, anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well, something's up... http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=oun&wwa=special%20weather%20statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well, something's up... http://forecast.weat...ather statement 16hrs old, before models took it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 south on 06z gfs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 From the looks of this page and how terrible the models were overnight, I take it there will be no blizzard near our area...*sighs*...guess I can go back to actually working. That's twice I have the let those dumb models lure me in...no more...I'm done! Unless I see it on a map within 3 days, I will assume it's in fantasyland...what a Christmas bummer:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanB Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Morning model runs have increased the amount of precip over the Kansas City area with tonight’s snowstorm. Looks like 4" to 5" is possible across the metro area with winds of 45-50 MPH during the morning rush hour is going to cause quite the nightmare for motorists considering we haven’t seen any real snow since the Winter of 2010-2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Update: Timing differences and the 12z GGEM does some weird energy transfer thing but it winds up with a 994 over SE MO at hour 180. That's crazy, BryanB.. I hope it ends up being even more than that for you all. 12z GFS says.......Annnnnd we're back: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 ggem looks awesome for here LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Update: Timing differences and the 12z GGEM does some weird energy transfer thing but it winds up with a 994 over SE MO at hour 180. What site do you get the GGEM maps from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What site do you get the GGEM maps from? Meteocentre http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z Euro had a snowfall for much of the area. It took a bit longer in getting there and for the system to turn negative. The surface low was in western Kentucky by 180. 18z GFS had a big storm but was a bit farther north. jcwxguy would love this run as he gets over a foot of snow this run. KC gets nailed as well. Now the 00z will probably go back to not having a storm, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Fantastic...it tracks right over OK..and we are left with nothing:P I sure hope this system tracks further south so that we all can get in on the fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It's still a long way out with large model spread, both individual models and ensembles. Looking at past events and taking what "Justin", the meteorologist on here said, Each individual storm system will probably track farther south than the previous one. I'm hoping KS northern MO gets a lot of snow with tonights storm to help tighten the baroclinic zone so "our" storm system tracks farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z Euro had a snowfall for much of the area. It took a bit longer in getting there and for the system to turn negative. The surface low was in western Kentucky by 180. 18z GFS had a big storm but was a bit farther north. jcwxguy would love this run as he gets over a foot of snow this run. KC gets nailed as well. Now the 00z will probably go back to not having a storm, lol then counting new years day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nearly every member of the 18z GFS has a big storm. That's a change from the previous runs which were pretty much spread out all over and didn't have much of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nearly every member of the 18z GFS has a big storm. That's a change from the previous runs which were pretty much spread out all over and didn't have much of a storm. thats good news, now we need the euro to get back on board for storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nearly every member of the 18z GFS has a big storm. That's a change from the previous runs which were pretty much spread out all over and didn't have much of a storm. JoMo, What is the consensus track at this point on the ensembles? I don't remember the link to find those or I'd look for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 JoMo, What is the consensus track at this point on the ensembles? I don't remember the link to find those or I'd look for myself. The Ensemble mean? Looks like southern Arkansas to western Kentucky. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 From tornado watch to subfreezing temps later tonight... I love living in SW MO. Watch is out until 2 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 From tornado watch to subfreezing temps later tonight... I love living in SW MO. Watch is out until 2 a.m. Disappointed there is no winter storm watch to go along with the tornado watch. That's always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Tornado Warning issued for Central Barry County in SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 00z GFS wants to bring 1/2" of snow across most areas north of I-44... maybe we will see some flakes falling to get me in the mood for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 00z GFS wants to bring 1/2" of snow across most areas north of I-44... maybe we will see some flakes falling to get me in the mood for next week. Yeah I did see both the NAM and GFS buffed up the flurries a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah I did see both the NAM and GFS buffed up the flurries a bit. And now SGF issues a WWA for areas along US 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 00z looks good for JoMo northward. Not great for Tulsa, NW Ark and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 00z GFS still has the Christmas storm, still going with the more northerly track. Big hit from southern/central KS to central MO. It 'bowling balls' pretty quickly so the surface low never gets to cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Too far N still for my comfort. May have to endure a couple of misses to the north to get us going this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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