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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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usasnodisfc312.gif

Yeah not as much sticks, but it's still a pretty crazy solution.

Did you see the 12z Euro and what it did to the PV? Looks like it splits off or at least weakens?

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The 12z Euro and 12z GFS finally did come to a consensus on the trough in the east. Not as flat as the GFS and not as sharp as the Euro had been showing. Overall pretty blah for at least the next 10 days. GFS is showing some changes mid-jan though. Euro says it may start changing by Day 10, but eh, probably not.

The MJO is on the move for the first time in awhile, it may make it to at least phase 6 in a few days, which isn't much different than phase 5 from the looks of it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

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Hey everyone. I keep up with this forum, but I don't get a chance to post to much. I will have to get on here a little bit more. I saw the blog of mine that JoMo posted a little over a week ago. Ok so I have been a little down, lol. I think I am frustrated with this winter so far. When we have the winters that we have had over the past two, it is easy to get frustrated. In fact the the 07-08, 09-10, 10-11 were all pretty good winters around this part of the country. I am starting to see some better signs. We are well into the 3rd cycle of this pattern and very close to entering the 4th cycle. January will be much better for us. The first week and a half may be kinda boring. However, I do expect to see much colder air by mid month. Also we have the potential for two big storm systems. These will occur on the 12th-14th, and 20th-22nd. So lets keep our fingers crossed for some wintry weather and not plain old rain.

Doug Heady

Chief Meteorologist

KOAMTV/FOX 14

Joplin MO/Pittsburg KS

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yeah I was thinking this year would be somewhat like 07-08 early on but the +AO is being a pain. I think it was anticipated by a lot of mets that it would eventually lower by the time winter started. Back in 07-08, it was only around +0.8-0.9 but it's been really spiking this year.

ao.obs.gif

It does look to change mid-Jan hopefully as the vortex that's been sitting near Alaska is replaced by high pressure/blocking.

Height anomalies now (you can see the blue near Alaska)

nhgpa500mb000.gif

And by the end of the run:

nhgpa500mb384.gif

Doug has a good handle on things it seems, as currently modeled (it'll change) the first system on the 12th-14th will be two pieces. One kicks out ahead of the other and would probably produce rain, but there looks to be a second heading into the west along with the cold air.

usapcpprstmp2m384.gif

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If it stays warm like it has been recently I would be concerned about having to use it this winter!!! :o Hopefully you won't ever need it, but it is a good thing to have nonetheless.

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12z GFS continues to show signs of things changing, and now the start of the changes are within 300 hours.

The Alaskan vortex of death that's just been sitting there flooding the US and Canada with warmer air is forecast to break down eventually.

You can see it with the blues near Alaska at the start of the run.

nhgpa500mb000.gif

By hour 240 it's still there, but you can see the heights rising to the west of it.

nhgpa500mb240d.gif

By 276 you can see the neg anomalies replaced by pos ones.

nhgpa500mb276o.gif

This results in the colder air shifting southward with time.

Joplinmet's time period of Jan 12th-14th is still showing a big storm somewhere.

Actually it still has the 2 storm idea.

The first storm across the south, which is still warm but you can see the colder air and storminess across the NW.

usapcpprstmp2m300f.gif

Then the main storm kicks out, too far north of here but this is still a long way away.

usapcpprstmp2m336.gif

Edit: Brett Anderson is going to post his interpretation of the Euro Weeklies this evening. From the sounds of it, it looks like it goes to a western trough and eastern ridge.

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On tonights 00z GFS... The vortex over Alaska starts breaking down by h228. It remains gone through the rest of the run. This will mean we will get colder air in here.

nhgpa500mb252.gif

That's good news. I'm not sure I actually believe the W-E gradient pattern shown though.

usavrthgtgrd500mb312.gif

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Hey Jomo - That looks pretty stout, lol. How is that thing attached to the floor? Seems like it might be good place to store emergency provisions that you might need in the event of an bad storm.

Hoping I won't need to use this come Spring, but glad I have it now. :)

aceovo.jpg

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JoMo - Are you in the process of building a new house? Just curious based on the pics above of the framed house and the safe room.

Hey Jomo - That looks pretty stout, lol. How is that thing attached to the floor? Seems like it might be good place to store emergency provisions that you might need in the event of an bad storm.

Nah, the framed house with the wreath came from a neighborhood rebuilding after the tornado just south of me. The people rebuilding weren't home when it happened but the place they would have taken shelter in the house was destroyed. I would probably build a concrete shelter/closet in the internal part of the house if I was rebuilding. I've seen a lot of houses that have rebuilt with the concrete shelters near their garage, the shelter is actually poured as part of the foundation in those instances. The steel safe room I got because I was less than 1/2 mile from the center of a then EF-4 tornado and after looking at all the houses that were just completely destroyed and all the projectiles that were thrown, I thought better safe than sorry and it really eases the mind knowing you have a safe place to go.

It's attached to 4-6" of concrete on the garage floor with around 10 really big screws that are around 5-6" long. The screws are epoxied down inside the concrete as well. The cage continues on the bottom, and the plywood is screwed down on top to act as a floor. The outside is made of steel and painted OSHA blue since I saw that after the tornado, there were a lot of whites and reds and browns but the blue tarps stood out and were easy to see. The 4 holes on the back are air vents. The door is of course the weakest point but it has 4 deadbolt sized locks to close the door and there's bracing in front of it on the inside. It has a safety pin you insert that prevents it from coming open. It exceeds all FEMA specifications due to additional bracing and the door design and you can drop a Cadillac from 40 feet onto the shelter and it will hold up just fine.

I plan on taking inside.. a light, radio, weather radio, airhorn, food, water, all the important documents and paperwork I have, some photo albums, cell phone and whatever else I can grab depending on how much warning there is.

The company I got it from had at least 3 in the Joplin tornado that survived intact.

One nearly or may have took a direct EF-4/5 hit. This is the one where the guy lost his wife and house in the 2008 Picher/Racine tornado. He moved to Joplin after that and was hit by Joplin tornado. He and his daughter survived inside during the tornado. His house did not. He has since moved elsewhere and the shelter was unbolted and he took it with him to his new house.

tom%20cook.jpg

Another one was at a house that sustained EF-3 damage but the people weren't home.

Grace%20Ln%20web.jpg

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EDIT: 12z Euro takes a 'Lakes Cutter' right on top of us at 216, probably snow in W OK, KS, NE, IA, MN. Long way out tho. It also shows a ridge starting to build W of Alaska at 240 as well.

12z GFS is still building the Alaskan ridge. Actually a great run for us, so you know it won't happen, lol

This is the ridge in it's infancy west of Alaska.

nhgpa500mb216.gif

Middle of the run

nhgpa500mb264j.gif

End of the run:

nhgpa500mb384g.gif

I hope it stays there since with it, we finally get cold air.

Interesting panel, lol

usapcpprstmp2m348.gif

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Wind Advisory for the region for overnight... looks like winds could gust to 50 mph. It's so boring around these parts I am getting excited about a wind advisory. :violin:

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Well, this is weird.... I think Joplinmet is a houdini with his pattern... He told me on FB on Dec 27th that he thought the upcoming eastern trough would be like the one on Sept 29th only possibly a little deeper and this was a few days ago when the Euro/GFS were fighting about it's strength.

Looking at the 500 MB pattern on Sept 30th reveals:

dwm500_test_20110930.gif

If you look at the 12z GFS today for 1/2/12... you have something very similar......

gfs_namer_054_500_vort_ht.gif

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Yeah JoplinMet has been crazy good with this pattern recognition so far this fall/winter.

Yea its a bit scary how accurate he is lol, man knows his stuff and has this pattern thing downpacked. I cant believe todays temps! it feels like freakin spring and its what january 1st lol, warmest I have ever expierienced in my 37 years that I can remember on this day thats for sure, wheres the snow lol?

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It is crazy with these temps but suppose we are overdue a warmer winter after the last couple of good years. Tonites GFS still looking good the last few days of the run so maybe a good pattern change is still in thee works.

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EDIT: Models don't know what to do with the possible wave in the 168-240 time range. 00z GFS doesn't have much, 12z Euro was blowing it up into a 'Lakes Cutter' right over us, which is something that the 00z GGEM wanted to do. 00z Euro has it meandering to our south by 240.

haha, to our north, south, east and west.. lol

usaasnowipersfc384m.gif

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12z GFS is still looking good for a pattern change around mid-month. The Alaskan vortex still looks to break down and a -PNA (west coast trough) sets up.

I don't think it's going to be as extreme as the GFS indicates in the longer range though as it has the AO going very strongly negative.

The good thing is, it continues to get closer and it's still looking like we will get colder air, the precip chances will sort themselves out but you can't have snow without cold air. :)

Edit: 12z Euro would probably have a snowstorm somewhere near the area at Day 10, but it's been very flip floppy to take seriously right now.

usaprmslmsl240b.gif

usatmp850mb240.gif

Edit 2:

Dodge City likes the Euro:

THE ECMWF PROCEEDS THEN TO CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AS SIGNIFICANT

UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IN A VERY FAMILIAR ANTICYCLONIC

WAVE BREAK LIKE WE SAW BACK IN MID-DECEMBER...PRIOR TO THE BIG DECEMBER

19-20 BLIZZARD. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEVER

CLOSES OFF A CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR SIGNIFICANT

ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING LOWS SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

CONUS...THE IDEA OF YET ANOTHER ONE OCCURRING ISN`T ALL THAT CRAZY...AND

IN FACT IS PROBABLY THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE GIVEN THE BASE

STATE OF THE PLANETARY CIRCULATION REGIME OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO.

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I realize I shouldn't get this excited, but did anyone check out the Euro? I'm sure it's in fantasyland, but it's showing a snowstorm for Oklahoma and for areas north of 1-20 in TX..stretching into MO. Problem is neither the Canadian or GFS is showing any precip...keeping it dry???

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I realize I shouldn't get this excited, but did anyone check out the Euro? I'm sure it's in fantasyland, but it's showing a snowstorm for Oklahoma and for areas north of 1-20 in TX..stretching into MO. Problem is neither the Canadian or GFS is showing any precip...keeping it dry???

Yep appears that the euro has a snowstorm within 180 hours.

In bed with food posioning or something disagreed with me but from a quick look it does show that.

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Feeling much better today. Nothing too exciting on the 12z GFS today. Definitely no snowstorm like the 00z Euro showing up as it keeps the energy fairly sheared. The 12z GFS in the long range wanted more of a trough in the east vs west like it had been showing.

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Feeling much better today. Nothing too exciting on the 12z GFS today. Definitely no snowstorm like the 00z Euro showing up as it keeps the energy fairly sheared. The 12z GFS in the long range wanted more of a trough in the east vs west like it had been showing.

Glad to hear you're feeling better. Now the 12z Euro appears to be following the GFS with a more progressive look early next week. Argggh..

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Glad to hear you're feeling better. Now the 12z Euro appears to be following the GFS with a more progressive look early next week. Argggh..

Yeah the Euro has been popping phantom snowstorms left and right. It still pops an upper level low but it stays down across Texas and is slow moving. The D5-D6 scores have really come down for all the models. At 240 it has an arctic blast coming down the central US.

But this will all change next model run, lol

And here's the Euro @ 240.

usatmp850mb240u.gif

vs GFS at 240

usatmp850mb240t.gif

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The GGEM is indicating some possible frozen across NW ARK, E OK, S MO @120:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

Finally, the 00z GFS long range gives a look to what I was expecting this winter to look like. I was expecting a SW/NE gradient pattern with Arctic air parked over the NW part of the US with the SE part having a ridge and a battle zone in between. The battle zone area is where it will rain to the south and ice and snow to the north. No idea how far south it will set up though.

usapcpprstmp2m348r.gif

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Well the 12z GFS came around to the Euro idea of a southern closed low meandering about across Texas and primarily south of everyone, and the 12z Euro wants to cut that system off farther west and bring it out a bit slower but it gets crushed by the N. stream. This all happens around 180ish. We'll see.

I noticed Joe Bastardi is banging the 2007 drum.

http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/154279487373180928/photo/1

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Well the 12z GFS came around to the Euro idea of a southern closed low meandering about across Texas and primarily south of everyone, and the 12z Euro wants to cut that system off farther west and bring it out a bit slower but it gets crushed by the N. stream. This all happens around 180ish. We'll see.

I noticed Joe Bastardi is banging the 2007 drum.

http://twitter.com/#...3180928/photo/1

JB mentioning Dec 1983 as a parallel. LOL.

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Well just got into work. I haven't had a chance to look at data yet today. What will the Euro and Gfs say today, lol

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