nzucker Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Prelim of -22k tonight...I am starting to wonder seriously about JAXA though because there's no way a significant portion of Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, and the areas east of Greenland aren't freezing with 850s running -20C to -30C in these areas during the lowest sun angle of the year. Although the coldest air doesn't arrive until after tomorrow, you have to wonder about the accuracy of day-to-day readings and whether the source is really intended for weekly verification, especially when other sources disagree. Nansen shows a huge spike in sea ice: DMI 30% concentration also shows us in the middle of the pack: Environment Canada ice maps show well more ice in Foxe Basin than the popular Cryosphere Today, and have for a while. You'd think the Canadians would be following this pretty closely considering navigation, local temperature forecasts, etc...there's a two day lag however with Cryosphere Today so we don't know how much is frozen unfortunately in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 You can clearly see the ice expanded less over the last 2 days on the satellite images. The day to day changes in jaxa correspond well to changes in the satellite images. NANSEN is also only through the 7th and Jaxa also showed a spike through the 7th. If you look closer at DMI it is showing very similar to what JAXA is showing.. we are close to 06 07 and 09 while 05 and 08 are higher. Jaxa just looks lower because 02 03 and 04 are listed and are much higher. It's very similar to JAXA, and you wouldn't expect perfect similarity anyways since one is 15% and the other 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Current Extent: 10,736,719km2 Daily Gain: 30,313km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Prelim of +66k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Week 11 Scores, congrats Mallow: MallowTheCloud 243000 ElTacoman 228000 Consensus 226000 Roger Smith 223000 frivolousz21 209000 Normal 193000 Nzucker 193000 skierinvermont 138000 grcjrsc 134000 MN transplant 122000 winterwxluvr 105000 Cumulative: Normal 1169000 skierinvermont 1153000 ElTacoman 895000 MN transplant 830000 Consensus 822000 Nzucker 792000 frivolousz21 633000 grcjrsc 587000 Roger Smith 331000 winterwxluvr 193000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 MallowTheCloud -43000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error: Normal 143727 skierinvermont 145182 ElTacoman 160500 MN transplant 167000 Consensus 175273 Nzucker 178000 grcjrsc 191300 frivolousz21 192455 Roger Smith 219909 winterwxluvr 225875 MallowTheCloud 253909 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Current Extent: 10,847,813km2 Daily Gain: 111,094km2 Contest Gain: 141,407km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Cumulative: Normal 1169000 skierinvermont 1153000 ElTacoman 895000 MN transplant 830000 Consensus 822000 Nzucker 792000 frivolousz21 633000 grcjrsc 587000 Roger Smith 331000 winterwxluvr 193000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 MallowTheCloud -43000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error: Normal 143727 skierinvermont 145182 ElTacoman 160500 MN transplant 167000 Consensus 175273 Nzucker 178000 grcjrsc 191300 frivolousz21 192455 Roger Smith 219909 winterwxluvr 225875 MallowTheCloud 253909 I love how "Normal" is winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 I love how "Normal" is winning. Yes Ugh.. I shouldn't have guessed so high last week. I think the "Average" for last week of 561k was somewhat misleading because the week before and after are much lower, so I think that it was sort of a fluke that that week averaged 561k. There were a couple really high years in there but then this week there is nothing above 600k.. it makes my guess of 730k look kind of silly.I'm pretty sure we'll get over 600 this week.. there is some flash freezing of Foxe and Hudson's Bay going on and they are at record late freeze dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I love how "Normal" is winning. We should all be very embarrassed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 We should all be very embarrassed. It's weird.. we actually have negative skill. Just shows how human emotions get in the way of objectivity.. Somebody should just start guessing normal every week and beat us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 It's weird.. we actually have negative skill. Just shows how human emotions get in the way of objectivity.. Somebody should just start guessing normal every week and beat us. I do admit to guessing too high some weeks because I wanted it to freeze, but I swear I will get above normal by the end of the 52-week contest. Prelim of 86k tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Current Extent: 10,967,344km2 Daily Gain: 119,531km2 Contest Gain: 260,938km2 Four days remain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 "Four days remain... " Thank goodness. I wonder if we'll see the Greenland ice contacting Iceland this winter, it has been a long time. Ice surrounding Iceland was common in the Maunder/LIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 "Four days remain... " Thank goodness. I wonder if we'll see the Greenland ice contacting Iceland this winter, it has been a long time. Ice surrounding Iceland was common in the Maunder/LIA. Today will help your cause Roger. Prelim of +79k from JAXA with the -35C 850s over Hudson Bay. I doubt you'll get that ice near Iceland due to the strong -NAO blocking making it warmer there. It's been cold towards the Barents Sea and Fram Strait but the ice will run up against warmer waters with the -NAO and widespread above average SST in the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Not this week, but check out the 144h GFS and beyond (European sector), the flow becomes northeasterly down the east coast of Greenland and Iceland is surrounded by sub-510 dm thickness for days. I think the ice margin is going to expand rapidly in that sector over the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Not this week, but check out the 144h GFS and beyond (European sector), the flow becomes northeasterly down the east coast of Greenland and Iceland is surrounded by sub-510 dm thickness for days. I think the ice margin is going to expand rapidly in that sector over the next 2-3 weeks. Yeah the ECM shows that as well....very cold temperatures in the Atlantic Arctic with large areas of -20C to -25C 850mb temperatures over Svalbard, eastern Greenland, Iceland, Barents Sea, etc. We should gain a lot there although we'll struggle on the North American side to gain much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Current Extent: 11,073,906km2 Daily Gain: 106,562km2 Contest Gain: 367,500km2 Three days left now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 +74k prelim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Current Extent: 11,170,156km2 Daily Gain: 96,250km2 Contest Gain: 463,750km2 Two days left...higher guesses looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Current Extent: 11,221,250km2 Daily Gain: 51,094km2 Contest Gain: 514,844km2 One day remaining...we'll probably see a decent gain today with colder air in the Bering Strait and a residual effect from the cold air mass over Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, and Foxe Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Two days left...higher guesses looking good. Dude wtf you ginxed us last week too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Dude wtf you ginxed us last week too We better get a decent gain today with all that cold air over Baffin Bay....I swear, it's like pulling teeth to get the ice to expand this season, as if cold air doesn't freeze water anymore. As a preview, next week looks poor on the North American side though we should see some gains in the Sea of Okhostk with the arctic outbreak north of Japan as well as large gains in the Atlantic Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Current Extent: 11,221,250km2 Daily Gain: 51,094km2 Contest Gain: 514,844km2 One day remaining...we'll probably see a decent gain today with colder air in the Bering Strait and a residual effect from the cold air mass over Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, and Foxe Basin. A nice mediocre 65k gain would be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm going out for a bit.. will post the averages for next week later. Feel free to start guessing if you think you might forget or won't be around tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 A nice mediocre 65k gain would be fine Or about 17000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Week 13 12/14-12/21 Gain 2002: 322,813 2003: 462,031 2004: 257,813 2005: 378,906 2006: 624,918 2007: 540,938 2008: 135,313 2009: 426,718 Average: 393,681 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Next week, 401 K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 +450k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 +398k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 438k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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