skierinvermont Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Prelim is -27k There's a warm pool of SSTs in the Chukchi (Bering straight area) that's really been hurting us the last 5 days.. you can see the sharp cutoff of the ice refusing to advance into it. Also westerly winds in the area yesterday and today have been pushing ice back that had built up along the Alaskan side of the straight. That's probably the primary reason for the neg prelim today, along with abv average temps in the unfrozen part of baffin bay and the kara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Prelim is -27k There's a warm pool of SSTs in the Chukchi (Bering straight area) that's really been hurting us the last 5 days.. you can see the sharp cutoff of the ice refusing to advance into it. Also westerly winds in the area yesterday and today have been pushing ice back that had built up along the Alaskan side of the straight. That's probably the primary reason for the neg prelim today, along with abv average temps in the unfrozen part of baffin bay and the kara. Yeah thank heavens the cold air gets to the Kara and Barents tomorrow. All of the Kara should be frozen over by the week's end, so figure another 100k there or so. Also, the arctic outbreak hasn't hit Hudson Bay yet, an area I'll be interested in from Day 5-7 of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 . Also, the arctic outbreak hasn't hit Hudson Bay yet, an area I'll be interested in from Day 5-7 of the week. I don't think Hudson's will freeze yet.. the SSTs are still too warm and the extreme cold is mostly west of the Bay. I could see some shore ice along the NW side which gets some of the extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Current Extent: 9,378,125km2 Daily Gain: -5,000km2 Contest Gain, 30,781km2 Misery continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Week 9 guesses: No MN or George this week anyone seen MN? skierinvermont 400k Normal 427k winterwxluvr 461k tacoman25 490k FrivolousZ21 510k nzucker 515k Mallow 555k Roger Smith 625k I'm back. Waited for the board thing to sort itself out, then a very busy week of travel interrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 After three days: Current Extent: 9,410,938km2 Daily Gain: 32,813km2 Contest Gain: 63,594km2 Terrible this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The pattern over Europe looks fantastic, polar bears are going to be srambling ahore in Iceland for the first time since the middle ages at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 were........ getting...... there....... NAO is going pretty negative and theres still a massive ridge over the GOA so thats not going to help in the short term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Damn, we might not even make it to 200k on the week. Wish I had gone lower.. the ridging over baffin bay and the bering straight looked bad but I didn't get to look at it closely so I hedged with climo and the fact that we already were pretty low. You would think eventually we will catch up to the pack, but this year and '06 are sort of in a league of their own. Huge gains in the Barents and Kara as expected, no help from Baffin Bay, and the ice near the Bering straight is just getting hammered by the winds and warmth. Also nothing in the Foxe or Hudson Bay.. SSTs are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Damn, we might not even make it to 200k on the week. Wish I had gone lower.. the ridging over baffin bay and the bering straight looked bad but I didn't get to look at it closely so I hedged with climo and the fact that we already were pretty low. You would think eventually we will catch up to the pack, but this year and '06 are sort of in a league of their own. Huge gains in the Barents and Kara as expected, no help from Baffin Bay, and the ice near the Bering straight is just getting hammered by the winds and warmth. Also nothing in the Foxe or Hudson Bay.. SSTs are too warm. Yeah this week is seriously disappointing. With major blocking present, huge gains in snow cover but not much in arctic sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceicebyebye Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Damn, we might not even make it to 200k on the week. Wish I had gone lower.. the ridging over baffin bay and the bering straight looked bad but I didn't get to look at it closely so I hedged with climo and the fact that we already were pretty low. You would think eventually we will catch up to the pack, but this year and '06 are sort of in a league of their own. Huge gains in the Barents and Kara as expected, no help from Baffin Bay, and the ice near the Bering straight is just getting hammered by the winds and warmth. Also nothing in the Foxe or Hudson Bay.. SSTs are too warm. A bit of a horserace to see whether the current month becomes or 2006 remains the lowest Nov recorded extent. A strong recovery will be needed to avoid a bottom 3 outcome at the spring peak. OK, back to the CC forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Next week guess.....347 K. sooner or later, one of my guesses will be UNDER the actual amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Week 10 11/23-11/30 2002: 601,875 2003: 621,719 2004: 540,625 2005: 370,312 2006: 327,032 2007: 436,719 2008: 404,219 2009: 404,062 Average: 460,420 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 +540k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Week 9 Scores: skierinvermont 46000 Normal 19000 winterwxluvr -15000 ElTacoman -44000 Consensus -62000 frivolousz21 -64000 Nzucker -69000 MallowTheCloud -109000 Roger Smith -179000 Cumulative: skierinvermont 880000 Normal 811000 MN transplant 493000 ElTacoman 492000 Consensus 460000 Nzucker 454000 grcjrsc 366000 frivolousz21 319000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 winterwxluvr 36000 Roger Smith -137000 Ytterbium -171000 MallowTheCloud -348000 Average Error (at least 3 weeks): skierinvermont 152222 Normal 159889 MN transplant 188375 ElTacoman 188500 Consensus 198889 Nzucker 199556 grcjrsc 204250 frivolousz21 214556 winterwxluvr 244000 Roger Smith 265222 MallowTheCloud 288667 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I'm back! This week going with +382 let's hope I don't bust too bad. +382 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 +400K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 +510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 +470k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 +440k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 +357k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 430k.. warm SSTs in the Bering straight will slow what would have been good growth there with some very cold temps and north winds early in the week. Baffin Bay/Fox Basin/ and Hudson's Bay all do very poorly because of warm SSTs and very warm air. The southern Kara should mostly finish freezing with some very cold air there. All in all it looks very poor to me for ice but I have a hard time going too low again because we are already so far below average. Bering Straight will be interesting to see what happens with the cold air and north winds but warm SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Week 10 guesses: winterwxluvr 347000 MallowTheCloud 357000 grcjrsc 382000 frivolousz21 400000 skierinvermont 430000 Consensus 431000 Nzucker 440000 Normal 460000 ElTacoman 470000 MN transplant 510000 Roger Smith 540000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Prelim of +55k... Sorry I haven't been helping out in this thread, busy with work and other discussions on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Current Extent: 9,631,563km2 Daily Gain: 88,594km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Looks like Ice extent increasing once again, remaining well above 2007 levels. 30%+ extent appears to have upticked as well...remaining very much above the 2006 level, with almost no cance to come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 prelim of +59k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Current Extent: 9,723,281km2 Daily Gain: 91,718km2 Contest Gain: 180,312km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I figured as soon as I went low it would start rebounding. The contest is rigged, I tell ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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