nzucker Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Prelim of +44k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Current Extent: 9,785,625km2 Daily Gain: 62,344km2 Contest Gain: 242,656km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Foxe Basin is finally starting to freeze, the northern 20% of it was shown as ice cover on the EC map today. I see the first little bits of ice showing in the northeast Sea of Okhotsk now as well. But with the pattern in the far north of Europe, there will probably be reasonable gains there over time, temperatures seem to be about 5-10 degrees below previous years around Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. In other words, back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Prelim just 1k today.. starting to slow down. Foxe Basin is finally starting to freeze, the northern 20% of it was shown as ice cover on the EC map today. I see the first little bits of ice showing in the northeast Sea of Okhotsk now as well. But with the pattern in the far north of Europe, there will probably be reasonable gains there over time, temperatures seem to be about 5-10 degrees below previous years around Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. In other words, back to normal. Do you have a link to this? On the cryosphere maps there's nothing in Foxe yet as of the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Here's the link. The ice I mentioned is mainly in the northern quarter of Foxe Basin and around the western shores. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/350_50.gif This map updates daily at about 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Some of the ridging that was modeled for the bering straight has faded from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Current Extent: 9,817,188km2 Daily Gain: 31,563km2 Contest Gain: 274,219km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Big prelim tonight: +58k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Current Extent: 9,921,094km2 Daily Gain: 103,836km2 Contest Gain: 378,055km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Prelim of 48k for the 6th day of the contest. Doing better up there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Current Extent: 10,023,594km2 Daily Gain: 102,500km2 Contest Gain: 480,555km2 Another big gain, looks like Roger Smith will emerge victorious this week. Continue to expect large gains, folks, with cold air on the Pacific side, in the Barents Sea, and soon expected to move into Baffin Bay, Foxe Basin, and Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 If today's number is small, then it might be our best week collectively thus far. The "Consensus" score wouldn't beat week 3's 243,000, but the average of all our scores could beat week 3's 187,000 because we all guessed fairly close to the actual result (the spread is smaller). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Week 11 Past years 11/30-12/07 2002: 262,187 2003: 641,406 2004: 622,031 2005: 475,157 2006: 955,000 2007: 486,250 2008: 581,250 2009: 466,719 Average: 561,250 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Well, I finally managed a guess under the actual amount. My next week "prediction" is 473 K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 If today's number is small, then it might be our best week collectively thus far. The "Consensus" score wouldn't beat week 3's 243,000, but the average of all our scores could beat week 3's 187,000 because we all guessed fairly close to the actual result (the spread is smaller). Prelim was +29k...close for the first place this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Week 11 "forecast" is +502 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 +611k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 +577 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Current Extent: 10,087,969km2 Daily Gain: 64,375km2 Final Contest Gain: 544,930km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 +490 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 +645 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 675k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 730k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Week 11 Guesses winterwxluvr 473000 MN transplant 490000 grcjrsc 502000 frivolousz21 577000 Consensus 588000 MallowTheCloud 611000 Roger Smith 645000 Nzucker 675000 skierinvermont 730000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Week 10 Scores, Congrats Roger almost nailed it pretty good week for us overall, it was our 3rd highest scoring week Roger Smith 245000 MN transplant 215000 ElTacoman 175000 Normal 165000 Nzucker 145000 Consensus 136000 skierinvermont 135000 frivolousz21 105000 grcjrsc 87000 MallowTheCloud 62000 winterwxluvr 52000 Cumulative: skierinvermont 1015000 Normal 976000 MN transplant 708000 ElTacoman 667000 Nzucker 599000 Consensus 596000 grcjrsc 453000 frivolousz21 424000 Roger Smith 108000 winterwxluvr 88000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 Ytterbium -171000 MallowTheCloud -286000 Average Error (at least 3 weeks): skierinvermont 148500 Normal 152400 MN transplant 171333 ElTacoman 175889 Nzucker 190100 Consensus 190400 grcjrsc 199667 frivolousz21 207600 winterwxluvr 237429 Roger Smith 239200 MallowTheCloud 278600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Thoughts for this week: Foxe and Hudson's Bay should both have major freezing because they are at record low ice/late freeze date, and there is some average/below average air that will be present over them especially mid-week and late-week. SSTs are close to freezing already. The Chukchi and Bering Straight should continue to freeze fairly rapidly as it has this past week due to below average temperatures much of the week. I would expect the Chukchi to freeze completely or nearly completely, the only inhibitor is that warm eddy which is still sticking around but has mostly faded. South of the Bering Straight we could see some freezing too with some strong north winds late in the week and below average temps most of the week acting on waters that are already close to freezing. Should see some more freezing in the NE Barents later in the week as a deep low drags some very cold air south over the water there, but I don't look for particularly large gains here. The southern Kara should mostly finish freezing with pretty cold air much of the week. Baffin Bay has warm air the early part of the week due to the continuing -NAO, but as this fades there is some very cold air especially in the northern part of the bay which is already frozen. The warmth is not extreme so I expect the melting of the last few days to subside and then some growth but nothing too large. Most of the gains I expect will be Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay, as well as the Bering Straight. Most other areas should see slight to moderate gains. All in all makes for a great week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Prelim of -7k tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Prelim of -7k tonight. I was thinking the week would be back loaded... but -7k??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I was thinking the week would be back loaded... but -7k??? I'm not too worried though as it will probably be revised to like 50k since the revisions have been huge lately. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a day around 200k towards the end but I went low just to protect myself against the first two days being crappy. Cold air doesn't really arrive at Hudson Bay till the weekend. Can you come on FB for a sec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Dang it, totally missed this last night. My guess would have been: +640k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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