Mallow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 +401k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Week 17 guesses winterwxluvr 414k Mallow 401k MN Transplant 385k grcjrsc 375k nzucker 315k tacoman 310k skierinvermont 290k Normal 269k Roger Smith 206k The torch in the Bering Strait continues but I don't think we will lose too much more because the winds are turning more easterly than southerly. Hudson Bay will probably be totally or nearly totally frozen by the end of the week with fairly cold air early and very cold air late in the week. Also some freezing in Hudson Strait with the cold shot. Barents gains some early but loses some late with cold north winds reversing to warm strong south winds. Okhotsk probably won't gain too much with above average temps and easterly winds for most of the week. Gains primarily Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait with small gains and losses elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 It looks pretty terrible for ice in the Bering Straight this week with strong south winds and very warm air. The Hudson bay doesn't look too good either in the area that is unfrozen, there are easterly winds and fairly warm air except for one cold shot. Okhotsk looks decent for some gains and it has been gaining lately. I went with 240k because I think the climo of 225k this week is exceptionally low and there are some very bad years thrown in there (the sample size is only 8). The week before averaged 350k so I'd peg the 'true average' at around 275 or 300k. So I think 240k is pretty low for this time of year, especially considering how far below average we are already. I considered guessing even lower but that's hard to do given how far below average we are already. We lost ice in the Bering Strait, Hudson Bay didn't change much with some losses early and some gains late. Okhotsk didn't gain very much either if at all. Fairly satisfied with this but maybe shouldn't have hedged quite as much based on climo and the low extent currently although that's easy to say after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 We lost ice in the Bering Strait, Hudson Bay didn't change much with some losses early and some gains late. Okhotsk didn't gain very much either if at all. Fairly satisfied with this but maybe shouldn't have hedged quite as much based on climo and the low extent currently although that's easy to say after the fact. I was surprised that Sea of Okhotsk and the Fram Strait/Barents Sea didn't gain more to make up for obvious losses on the Pacific side. You have to wonder what's going on over there with 850s <-20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The torch in the Bering Strait continues but I don't think we will lose too much more because the winds are turning more easterly than southerly. Hudson Bay will probably be totally or nearly totally frozen by the end of the week with fairly cold air early and very cold air late in the week. Also some freezing in Hudson Strait with the cold shot. Barents gains some early but loses some late with cold north winds reversing to warm strong south winds. Okhotsk probably won't gain too much with above average temps and easterly winds for most of the week. Gains primarily Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait with small gains and losses elsewhere. We might be underestimating how much we'll gain this week due to the amount of unfrozen water in North America. Don't forget Baffin Bay! Big gains there this week as the sea ice consolidates down towards Labrador. Cold air is finally marching across Canada due to the strong -EPO pattern, a break from the +EPO we've had most of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Prelim of 47k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Current Extent: 12,482,500km2 Daily Gain: 88,906km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Prelim of 30k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Current Extent: 12,545,469km2 Daily Gain: 62,969km2 Contest Gain: 151,875km2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Prelim of +50k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 The past few days we've gained a lot in Hudson Strait (a little more than I was expecting), a decent amount in the Barents (expected early week, remains to be seen if the south winds later this week slow it down), and we've even gained in the Bering Strait area south of Alaska. The gains south of Alaska were unexpected to me because of the very warm air. I expected the easterly winds and warm air would be a wash and we would see little net change, however the easterly winds seem to be stretching it out towards Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Current Extent: 12,634,844km2 Daily Gain: 89,375km2 Contest Gain: 241,250km2 The past few days we've gained a lot in Hudson Strait (a little more than I was expecting), a decent amount in the Barents (expected early week, remains to be seen if the south winds later this week slow it down), and we've even gained in the Bering Strait area south of Alaska. The gains south of Alaska were unexpected to me because of the very warm air. I expected the easterly winds and warm air would be a wash and we would see little net change, however the easterly winds seem to be stretching it out towards Siberia. I was expecting Hudson Strait to freeze solid this week with 850s starting around -16C and dropping towards -25C with the advance of the PV, but I think I didn't account for how large that area is. We're going to see massive gains in the next week as the ice consolidates down the Labrador coastline; remember, it's supposed to be frozen down to near Nova Scotia in late January, so there's a lot of territory with a normally brutal climate that hasn't iced due to the -NAO and all the east winds. Also, keep in mind that the block has shifted from the Bering Strait towards Kamchatka and the North Pole, which means there's an area of cold 850s in the Bering...sort of a Rex Block like configuration. In any case, the higher guesses are going to win this week for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 winterwxluvr 414k Mallow 401k MN Transplant 385k grcjrsc 375k nzucker 315k tacoman 310k skierinvermont 290k Normal 269k Roger Smith 206k I just wanna win once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 winterwxluvr 414k Mallow 401k MN Transplant 385k grcjrsc 375k nzucker 315k tacoman 310k skierinvermont 290k Normal 269k Roger Smith 206k I just wanna win once. You're going to win almost certainly. We'll gain a lot more as Hudson Strait and Baffin Bay continue to freeze, with some smaller gains possible in the Sea of Okhotsk as colder air returns there by the week's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Prelim of 17k tonight...it will probably slow down a little bit now with Hudson Bay completely frozen, although I do expect big gains at the very end of the week since brutally cold air rushes into Baffin Bay and down towards Labrador, and we should see some more ice formation in the Sea of Okhotsk as the mild, easterly flow starts to die down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Current Extent: 12,678,281km2 Daily Gain: 43,437km2 Contest Gain: 284,687km2 Solid gains continue...three days remain in the contest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Prelim of -41k, sort of unexpected with the solid gains recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Prelim of 17k tonight...it will probably slow down a little bit now with Hudson Bay completely frozen, although I do expect big gains at the very end of the week since brutally cold air rushes into Baffin Bay and down towards Labrador, and we should see some more ice formation in the Sea of Okhotsk as the mild, easterly flow starts to die down. Okhotsk is torching right through the end of the contest with strong easterly winds. Also, Baffin Bay is above average through the end of the contest as well. if you look closely the cold air stays over the canadian coast and doesn't really make it out into the Bay where there is still milder air and southerly winds. Prelim of -41k, sort of unexpected with the solid gains recently. Not too surprising to me... the conditions are not favorable for ice in Okhotsk or Bering Strait so no gains maybe losses there. There are bad conditions in Barents probably canceling out Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. Barents has above average temperatures and strong south winds. Any gains for the rest of the week I'd probably expect to be in Hudson Bay or Strait.. there's still a sizable amount of unfrozen water there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Okhotsk is torching right through the end of the contest with strong easterly winds. Also, Baffin Bay is above average through the end of the contest as well. if you look closely the cold air stays over the canadian coast and doesn't really make it out into the Bay where there is still milder air and southerly winds. There's actually north winds in Okhotsk tomorrow, so you're wrong about that...airmass isn't brutally cold though with 850s around -15C for much of the western area: I still wouldn't be surprised to see some bigger gains the last day or two since the Labrador Coast and Hudson Strait are finally getting the brutally cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 There's actually north winds in Okhotsk tomorrow, so you're wrong about that...airmass isn't brutally cold though with 850s around -15C for much of the western area: The winds look northeasterly to me and they were more easterly (ENE) earlier in the period (today, last night) which is why I said east. Obviously I didn't mean they stayed exactly at 90 degrees the entire period. Most of the unfrozen area is 6-12C above average. Torch. To get good freezing you would want cold air flowing off the land at due north or NW, not NE and ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The winds look northeasterly to me and they were more easterly (ENE) earlier in the period (today, last night) which is why I said east. Obviously I didn't mean they stayed exactly at 90 degrees the entire period. Most of the unfrozen area is 6-12C above average. Torch. To get good freezing you would want cold air flowing off the land at due north or NW, not NE and ENE. Yeah, obviously it's not going to be super cold there for a while since all the bitter stuff has moved into North America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Current Extent: 12,679,219km2 Daily Gain: 938km2 Contest Gain: 285,625km2 Disappointing today, but at least we didn't lose ice...two days remain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My guess for next week 339 K. In case I forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 +12k yesterday +297,500 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Current Extent: 12,691,094km2 Daily Gain: 11,875km2 Contest Gain: 297,500km2 One day left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Week 18 Averages falling off now as we near the peak 1/18-1/25 2003: -46,719 2004: 98,906 2005: 199,219 2006: 111,250 2007: 435,000 2008: 568,907 2009: -21,406 2010: 140,625 Average: 185,723 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 The final was 285k Week 17 Scores: skierinvermont 245000 Normal 232000 tacoman 225000 Nzucker 220000 Consensus 198000 Roger Smith 171000 grcjrsc 160000 MN transplant 150000 Mallow 134000 winterwxluvr 121000 Cumulative: skierinvermont 2173000 Normal 1958000 Consensus 1548000 tacoman 1544000 Nzucker 1492000 MN transplant 1360000 grcjrsc 996000 Roger Smith 826000 winterwxluvr 773000 frivolousz21 733000 Mallow 468000 blazess556 71000 BethesdaBoy 64000 Organizing Low 49000 Ytterbium -171000 Average Error: skierinvermont 122176 Normal 134824 tacoman 153500 Consensus 158941 Nzucker 162235 MN transplant 165000 grcjrsc 187750 frivolousz21 188917 winterwxluvr 194786 Roger Smith 201412 Mallow 222471 Also just for fun I decided to tally up the weeks each of us have won frivolousz21: 0 skierinvermont: 6 (6,9,13,15,16,17) Mallow: 1 (11) MN transplant: 4 (2,8,12,14) tacoman: 2 (3,7) grcjrsc: 0 Organizing Low: 0 Nzucker: 2 (1,4) Ytterbium: 0 Roger Smith: 2 (5,10) blazess556: 0 winterwxluvr: 0 BethesdaBoy: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Optimistic about Okhotsk expanding rapidly so +450 for me ... do they count Great Lakes because we could see advances there too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Optimistic about Okhotsk expanding rapidly so +450 for me ... do they count Great Lakes because we could see advances there too? It is supposed to be "sea ice" so I would guess no if they are being literal, but can't be 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It is supposed to be "sea ice" so I would guess no if they are being literal, but can't be 100% sure. This is exactly why I have problems with this contest...what is the resolution of the satellites? Do smaller bodies of water with significant area, like the Great Lakes, count? I've asked these questions before but you never seen to produce an answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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