blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I guess it's safe to say that the NWS has completely thrown out the NAM on this one then? I really haven't looked too much at the other models besides the GFS and NAM, but I assume they keep all the heavy stuff away from us as well? I noticed that they made the changeover to snow in the Pittsburgh area much later than they forecasted earlier. Not til tomorrow now instead of tonight. That's what will cut the amounts down here locally big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks like the deformation band will set up across western PA up to far western NY/BUF. Looks like an interesting morning rush hour out there. NAM simulated radar at 10am. I think locations with a little bit of elevation and away from large lakes, will have no trouble picking up snow. Looks like Pittsburgh changes over about 10z according to the NAM. http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/rad24.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM and GFS are like night and day with this storm. Here is the 12Z NAM: The latest GFS doesn't even us an inch. Obviously I'm much more inclined to believe the GFS based on nothing more than "realism," but still, why is the NAM so much wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM and GFS are like night and day with this storm. Here is the 12Z NAM: The latest GFS doesn't even us an inch. Obviously I'm much more inclined to believe the GFS based on nothing more than "realism," but still, why is the NAM so much wetter? Not sure exactly, but a logical guess would be the GFS is seeing higher temperatures in place. Given that it is spring and their is more "juice" in the atmopshere, I would think the NAM isn't too far off. Maybe something in between the GFS's and NAM's qpf outputs would be the safe route to go. If dynamic cooling kicks in, then I don't see any problem with northern WV, W PA getting snow to stick during the moderate and heavy radar returns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Not sure exactly, but a logical guess would be the GFS is seeing higher temperatures in place. Given that it is spring and their is more "juice" in the atmopshere, I would think the NAM isn't too far off. Maybe something in between the GFS's and NAM's qpf outputs would be the safe route to go. If dynamic cooling kicks in, then I don't see any problem with northern WV, W PA getting snow to stick during the moderate and heavy radar returns! If the GFS isn't even giving us an inch, and the NAM is bombing us, then I guess that's what the NWS is doing with their 2-4 call at this point. Just going in between the two for now.....but closer to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Does anyone know what the record storm snowfall is this late in the season? Watching the models battle it out and seeing Watches posted I think puts us back in a mid-season mentalilty. In other words, there is a bit of a disappointment looming if the best case doesn't verify (except of course if you consider it could be damaging) I know that we had....what....a 9" official storm in April '87 and 4" I think in '05. But those were also early April. I wonder if we have ever even officially seen 4" this late. My point is that the middle of the road solution could be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 If the GFS isn't even giving us an inch, and the NAM is bombing us, then I guess that's what the NWS is doing with their 2-4 call at this point. Just going in between the two for now. I think the 12Z GFS was in the 3" to 4" range. Not sure where giving us nothing is coming from , unless I missed something. Edit: Oh, I think it was JWilson talking about Morgantown not getting an inch per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 GFS temps can be sometimes too warm in the early and late season just remember that. Euro and NAM will handle the temps a bit better, especially in dynamic cooling situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I think the 12Z GFS was in the 3" to 4" range. Not sure where giving us nothing is coming from , unless I missed something. Edit: Oh, I think it was JWilson talking about Morgantown not getting an inch per the GFS OK. I'm on tapatalk right now on my phone so I just assumed he was from the Pittsburgh area when saying that. Didn't look at his profile or anything. If that's the case, then I guess the NWS is going with the GFS solution for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Point and click gives Monroeville 4 to 7" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The 18z NAM has backed off now on the precip as well. Drier than its previous runs. Closer to what the GFS has been showing. I'm thinking 2-4 now is a pretty solid forecasted amount, unless something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Does anyone know what the record storm snowfall is this late in the season? Watching the models battle it out and seeing Watches posted I think puts us back in a mid-season mentalilty. In other words, there is a bit of a disappointment looming if the best case doesn't verify (except of course if you consider it could be damaging) I know that we had....what....a 9" official storm in April '87 and 4" I think in '05. But those were also early April. I wonder if we have ever even officially seen 4" this late. My point is that the middle of the road solution could be historic. 3.1" on May 9, 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Not to be picky or anything but NWS Pit has a great discussion (They are now better than they used to be). They say the rain will change to snow at daybreak and be heavy at times in the discussion but the forecast says the rain/snow mix will turn to all snow afer 1:00 pm and then be heavy at times. I know sometimes they have trouble with these point and click forecasts but I was wondering if the morning will be worse driving then the afternoon. (assuming the snow accumulates at all on the roads or they may just remain mostly slushy and wet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 3.1" on May 9, 1966 I do know that that is the latest significant snow. I guess what I'm mainly asking is what would be the most snow April 23rd or later. Maybe that's it, but I would think that maybe there was something else in the 4.23 to 5.8 timeframe. If that's also the most snow April 23rd or later, I think it goes down. The airpor'ts western location though might suck for this, although it's elevation will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Wow..18z gfs is almost a complete miss for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Wow..18z gfs is almost a complete miss for us. What are you looking at.... I think it looks similar to 12Z. I think maybe there is a little shift east in the heavier precip towards the panhandle. 18 Z at 48 hrs 12Z 48 hr precip at hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Kinda like the Pens, this looks like it could be a too little too late, situation. This morning I was looking at the northern energy, thinking it better get moving to catch the southern energy. Right now the southern energy is shooting off the FL coast, and although it is turning north, the arc of the turn might be too far right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Well just tha fact that it might have .4 inches total qpf. This time of year that isn't going to stick really. I think this is going to be on the low end...an inch or two at most What are you looking at.... I think it looks similar to 12Z. I think maybe there is a little shift east in the heavier precip towards the panhandle. 18 Z at 48 hrs 12Z 48 hr precip at hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah really. lol I would still like to see this storm phase as early as possible, any delay can really hurt us. BTW, awesome radar. Go Pens. Responding to this a bit late, but thanks for the compliment on the radar! lol I assume you say that because of those jerks in the Flyer thread. Glad I stayed away from that thread most of the series. Those people were really obnoxious and annoying. I should have gone back in there with 5 radars in my signature to make them mad. lol I still went back in and congratulated the Flyers and gave them credit. I'm sure they stayed obnoxious and gloated after that but I know how to lose with dignity and respect unlike their whiny fans. OK, done with that. As far as the storm goes, I have a feeling that the local amounts are going to vary greatly with this one because of the extremely varying altitudes around here. People along the rivers may see very little while folks not far away in higher spots may get a few inches. Altitude and when the changeover actually occurs tomorrow will be the big factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 As far as the storm goes, I have a feeling that the local amounts are going to vary greatly with this one because of the extremely varying altitudes around here. People along the rivers may see very little while folks not far away in higher spots may get a few inches. Altitude and when the changeover actually occurs tomorrow will be the big factors. Yeah, we'll see what happens tomorrow. But hey, it only takes one energetic deform band to get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Cancel Pitt. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Cancel Pitt. http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/snow60.gif Well, cancel Penn State too and their ****ty product. (Sorry, couldn't resist) But seriously, not sure what's up with that.... that is supposed to be a graphical depiction of the NAM, and the 18Z NAM still gave us 7" (unless it's saying that by early Wednesday, everything that fell melted already) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Well, cancel Penn State too and their ****ty product. (Sorry, couldn't resist) But seriously, not sure what's up with that.... that is supposed to be a graphical depiction of the NAM, and the 18Z NAM still gave us 7" (unless it's saying that by early Wednesday, everything that fell melted already) You must be careful about saying things like 'gave us 7." This is very elevation dependent. 500' will mean the difference between 6" and possibly over a foot, so the same towns will vary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Cancel Pitt. http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/snow60.gif I guess we should just ignore all the other models for now on and just wait for the latest 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 You must be careful about saying things like 'gave us 7." This is very elevation dependent. 500' will mean the difference between 6" and possibly over a foot, so the same towns will vary. True..... but I was referring to both KPIT (7") and KAGC (8"), both of which were left essentially in the "no snow" area per that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Time to start looking at the high resolution models. HRRR total snowfall through about 10am tomorrow. 21z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Well, the high res models make me feel a bit better considering they are only 24 hours out. Both of those drop 1.25 QPF on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 723 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 ...HEAVY AND WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT AREA... .STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. A HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH. THIS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE DOWNING OF TREE LIMBS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED LEAVES...WHICH MAY IN TURN SPAWN POWER OUTAGES. SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. PAZ020-021-029-031-WVZ021-022-230730- /O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0011.120423T0900Z-120424T0600Z/ BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON... CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA... MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN 723 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE HILLS AND AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. * TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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