bluewave Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 It's interesting how this has been working out every other month since June. June 08 June 11 August 08 August 11 October 08 October 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I'm not seeing anything interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 I'm not seeing anything interesting? Nearly identical blocking location patterns along with the big rise in the AO this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 This year was just one day later than the 10/28/08 early snowstorm. http://www.weather.c...permalink_month http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/erEventDisplay.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Good stuff bluewave. 2008 has been a great analog for the past several months and is one of my main analogs for the ensuing winter (along with 54-55 and 55-56). Numerous similarities in the placement of pos/neg anomalies in the nern hemisphere. Good point about the October snow event as well. This winter should feature a more negative NAO/AO than 08-09, so I do expect the snowfall gradient to be quite a bit further south than that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I have been on the 08-09 train for a while now, too, as well as 62-63 (and 56-57 to a lesser extent)... early indications (to me) are that we may be much wetter than 08-09, though, with so many huge QPF events the past few months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I have been on the 08-09 train for a while now, too, as well as 62-63 (and 56-57 to a lesser extent)... early indications (to me) are that we may be much wetter than 08-09, though, with so many huge QPF events the past few months... I would agree. It's interesting to note the SSTA profile in the West Atlantic for now versus late October of 2008. Late Oct '08: Now: Quite a bit warmer anomaly wise at the present. This should aid in building a fairly tight baroclinic zone / thermal gradient once we start seeing troughs amplify and lock into the Eastern US late Nov through December. Given my expectation for a -NAO December, favorable tropical forcing, and the warm waters offshore, it's largely why I'm targeting another possible significant storm in the mid/late Dec time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 it may be coincidence, but every month since July has featured an event with 1"+ QPF on the 28th-29th... sometimes we do seem to get big stoms in "cycles", could be an indicator of big potential at the end of both November and December, just something to watch... I like mid-December for a decent sized snow event, though... and the general period of Dec-mid/late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 I just ran the numbers here locally...it's uncanny how similar this month has been to October 2008, even down to the progression of above/below average periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Also had this in Late Oct 2008.. Pretty wild. That Nov 2008 started out pretty warm around here though with a few days in the low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 2008 was an El Nino year...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 2008 was an El Nino year...... ? The 06-07 Nino was long gone by this point. 08-09 was borderline weak Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 2008 was an El Nino year...... What are you talking about? ? The 06-07 Nino was long gone by this point. 08-09 was borderline weak Nina. Even if he was thinking 07-08.. that was a moderate Nina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 What are you talking about? Even if he was thinking 07-08.. that was a moderate Nina... 2009 was El Nino. Apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 2008-2009 is a pretty decent analog in my book. Locally the months are very similar except 2011 was a touch warmer and wetter. Though both months had similar number of precip events that were of the low amount high frequency type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 2008-2009 is a pretty decent analog in my book. Locally the months are very similar except 2011 was a touch warmer and wetter. Though both months had similar number of precip events that were of the low amount high frequency type. Yeah,so far this year is warmer and much wetter than the 2008 pattern was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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