WxMidwest Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I think 78 is the new low to looking at http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KMIA.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 hoping temps come down a bit more and that will leave me with a pretty solid day, despite being off on the high (granted everyone was) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 WxMidwest's link says a trace of precip between 18z and 0z. Does that count as 0.00" or 0.01"? Argh, I'm pretty sure it's 0.00". Also, wow at 79 already. If we get below 77 then I start losing points in the other direction (well technically gaining them) which would be unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Trace = 0.00" Currently in 405th place, if the low can get to 77 then I'll probably move up a bit but on the other hand if it gets below that I'll probably end up worse than 405th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 The Metar says 79 is still the low, so NWS had something wrong in there statement had 78F. Lesson: Always go with the METARS... The low may still occur in these later hours though, getting to 77 would be great for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Getting up to 93F today and the storm missing that narrowly destroyed me today. 16 Error Points. So incredibly frustrating. Forecasting individual precipitation amounts for Miami like this is just asinine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 The Metar says 79 is still the low, so NWS had something wrong in there statement had 78F. Lesson: Always go with the METARS... The low may still occur in these later hours though, getting to 77 would be great for me... I think the 78 was the minimum of the 24-hour period ending at 12:53 am today. Hence it wouldn't cover this morning's low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjoe Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Getting up to 93F today and the storm missing that narrowly destroyed me today. 16 Error Points. So incredibly frustrating. Forecasting individual precipitation amounts for Miami like this is just asinine. It truly is. I would be fine if we were forecasting POPs, but forecasting discrete precipitation amounts is nearly impossible because of the scale of the storms that occur - unless I'm unaware of some magical guidance product that can do it. (While the HRRR guidance may look plausible, it often gets things wrong as I'm sure many here are aware. The addition of an ensemble HRRR will probably help, though.) I'm not one to complain usually, but in my opinion there is much more luck to winning this city than skill, especially when you factor in the small standard deviations in temp forecasts compared to what other cities will be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Getting up to 93F today and the storm missing that narrowly destroyed me today. 16 Error Points. So incredibly frustrating. Forecasting individual precipitation amounts for Miami like this is just asinine. Yep, it's just pointless...as wxjoe said it's pretty much luck as opposed to skill, so I'm just going to keep forecasting 0.00" straight up unless I see a strong QPF signal from multiple models. Honestly the wind is what has hurt me, as I believe I've been low every single day thus far. Having said all that, I'm currently around 400th place so I guess I must be doing something right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Forget making my own forecasts I am going to go with Climo from now on. Climo is number 40 overall while I am a few magnitudes behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I dunno Chris, Days look a little bit cooler then climo much of the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjoe Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Forget making my own forecasts I am going to go with Climo from now on. Climo is number 40 overall while I am a few magnitudes behind that. *CLIMO0 - aka climo with zero precip. CLIMO_ (with precip) is sitting at a much, much lower 1041. So just go with 87 / 74 / 13 / 0 every day... haha. PS: Has anyone else had the issue that the results page keeps defaulting to Day 3 instead of Day 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I'm DXRWX3 for Western Connecticut State University...had a tough first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 929th overall after the first week. 115th among category four forecasters. I'm in the upper third of cat fours, but still not really happy about the first week. We shall see what happens in the second week of action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Man! Sad I missed out on the contest this year... One thing I've noticed, just going back and looking at the past three days, is that those low temperatures are going to depend on WHEN they see the rain, if any. Yesterday, it rained earlier in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to get back into the middle 80s before slowly dropping into the upper 70s. Also, the WIND DIRECTION plays a huge part in forecasting the overnight low... If there's a bit of northerly wind overnight, temperatures will drop relatively fast. However, if you continue to see an easterly (or even a westerly wind to some extent) it won't dip much below 76/77. Also, the rain is a crap shoot as you can have some areas of Miami pick up 2 inches, but the official recording station only picks up .04 You can't go wrong with a forecast of 90/77/12/.10 each day for Miami... that is until the front tries to work its way into South Florida which you also have to be careful about, but that's next week. Good luck to everyone forecasting for Miami! It's a tricky spot to forecast for, as many of you are finding out now, but it's also enjoyable! BTW, I grew up on the west coast of Florida so I know what you are going through forecasting those stupid overnight lows Forget making my own forecasts I am going to go with Climo from now on. Climo is number 40 overall while I am a few magnitudes behind that. A tad above climo is what I said to go with, but overall it wouldn't have been a bad forecast, especially for overnight lows the past few days! Next week is going to be fun to see just how "cool" they get, the winds, and how quickly they warm up and on which day! Oh, and something else I noticed from doing the contest the past three years (forgot to sign up for it this year ) is that the winds are GENERALLY a little higher than you think they will be... That's not always the case but it works out a good 80% of the time. Enjoy forecast next week for Miami! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I'm 884 overall, with a rather rough first week. How do I find out where I rank in the Category-4 forecasters? When I click "Results" and "Category 4" I get only Cat 4 forecasters, but still only my overall rank. I'm negNAO at val, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I'm 884 overall, with a rather rough first week. How do I find out where I rank in the Category-4 forecasters? When I click "Results" and "Category 4" I get only Cat 4 forecasters, but still only my overall rank. I'm negNAO at val, by the way. You have to be insane like me and actually count all the way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 looks like tomorrow might be a bit less precipitation happy than last week... NWS only has around 10% for POPs during the day, although it does go back up to 20% on the evenings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 84/77/18/0.00 We'll see about the 18... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 The Euro has MIA solidly in 15-18 kt winds most of the day tomorrow, so I also went a bit ballsy on the winds. 86 / 76 / 17 kts / 0.00 Edit: I meant 17 kts, I never changed the 9 when I copied it from someone else's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Miami Day 5 86F / 77F / 15 knots / 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 85/77/15knots/0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 88/77/10/0.00..........standard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 85/78/15/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 86F / 77F / 13kts / 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 87F / 75F / 12 knots / 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Day 5: 86 / 75 / 17 / 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 went with a conservative forecast today: 86/75/15/0.00 I was really hung up on that low, but it all boils down to wind speed and direction. Sky cover and dew-points don't seem to mean much along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Climo with 1 degree changes and a bump on the winds. It should average out as a positive gain. 88/76/13/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 78 as a final low... And.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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