Possible Snow Gradient Explanation

[HM]

Yeah we had a pretty extreme block right around Dec 30-New Years in '08-'09...but then a weaker one at the end of January '09 after a very favorable Pacific in between the -NAO stints (huge MJO wave really bolstered that).

A lot of forecasts have been smoked by the MJO in the past two Ninas in January ('09 and last winter)....how do you feel about it this year?

I think we have been on a very consistent pattern with tropical forcings and the current MJO wave now just enhances that idea further. There will probably be another MJO wave this January. This one will likely disturb the stratosphere, possibly igniting a MMW. However, it may take awhile for it to downwell given the moderate La Niña and lingering +QBO.

[HM]

Any thoughts on the possibility that the descending QBO and different placement of -ENSO forcing this year could lead to the second half of winter being colder in the East than the first half? This is actually the way I leaned in my winter outlook, though I think December (especially early) still has a chance to be cold, especially in the Northeast.

There are a lot of things going for a cool picture in February for the Northeast except one important feature: the La Niña. In 62-63, 64-65 and 71-72, the cool event weakened enough to allow February to be cold...so that leaves 67-68. That year held onto the La Niña longer but had the earliest MMW on record (late dec-early Jan) which successfully disturbed the vortex in time for February.

Now I do think a MMW will happen this year but in the end ENSO climo may end up winning in Feb/Mar. There is currently no indication that this current La Niña will weaken earlier than normal.

[uncle W]

There are a lot of things going for a cool picture in February for the Northeast except one important feature: the La Niña. In 62-63, 64-65 and 71-72, the cool event weakened enough to allow February to be cold...so that leaves 67-68. That year held onto the La Niña longer but had the earliest MMW on record (late dec-early Jan) which successfully disturbed the vortex in time for February.

Now I do think a MMW will happen this year but in the end ENSO climo may end up winning in Feb/Mar. There is currently no indication that this current La Niña will weaken earlier than normal.

1962-63 and 1967-68 had a very cold January and February...1962 was cold in December also...1964-65 had a very cold January and milder February...1972 did have a cold February after a mild start to winter...Another analog for a colder February would be 1973-74....The AO was pretty low in August and when that happens it usually means it will go quite negative sometime during the winter months...

[Amped]

Yeah I am not so sure on how cold the anomalies will be in December. I could see something very strange where the East Coast is at / below normal (perhaps upper Midwest/Great Lakes) but much of the western states are above normal down into the Plains/Gulf States. I am fairly confident that the Siberian Snow will come in above normal this October and will begin triggering a stratospheric/tropospheric coupling response by mid November. A deep freeze will be likely when this occurs, especially when a possible MJO wave comes through Indonesia. It wouldn't shock me if most places see accumulating snow in the Northeast Corridor, including major cities, before December 1st this year.

The MJO will get into the El Niño phases as we move into December; but by this point, the wavelengths should be long enough to allow the PNA pattern to continue. In early November and October, this same thing would have meant warmth. As the forcing becomes more unfavorable for cold deeper into December, we will have to rely on the NAO to pick up the slack. If the NAO fails, then the rest of December will be quite warm. Last year, it came through for us but that was with an extreme setup solar-wise, coupled with the +QBO Aleutian High aiding in sustaining the -AO/NAO. Will these circumstances repeat?

1953, the last amazing severe sean featured a weenie favorite early snow storm in November. It also rivaled Irene's winds in NYC and New England.

Is 1953 one of your analogs?

[ORH_wxman]

I think we have been on a very consistent pattern with tropical forcings and the current MJO wave now just enhances that idea further. There will probably be another MJO wave this January. This one will likely disturb the stratosphere, possibly igniting a MMW. However, it may take awhile for it to downwell given the moderate La Niña and lingering +QBO.

This might hint at a colder February than normal for Ninas in the east if that is the case. Or maybe latter Feb into March. We haven't seen that too much in a Nina since the big late Feb-March 2001 pattern shift. We seemed to have a smaller shift in '09 during that time but it was short lived.

[HM]

1962-63 and 1967-68 had a very cold January and February...1962 was cold in December also...1964-65 had a very cold January and milder February...1972 did have a cold February after a mild start to winter...Another analog for a colder February would be 1973-74....The AO was pretty low in August and when that happens it usually means it will go quite negative sometime during the winter months...

Well February 1965 wasn't exactly warm or mild. Most areas were at or below normal in the Northeast but the heart of the cold was west of the area. I suppose 73-74 bucks the trend but that year's MJO timing was different than what is expected this season. The MJO shifted the pattern to cold during February with a -NAO response. So, yeah, I guess that could happen again, but I would bet it will likely be more in January again.

While I have noted the summertime AO/NAO, I don't just say that affects the winter AO. Why would this connection exist? What is the correlation coefficient? As far as this upcoming winter, no one is suggesting it will average positive. The concern will be the EPO.

[HM]

1953, the last amazing severe sean featured a weenie favorite early snow storm in November. It also rivaled Irene's winds in NYC and New England.

Is 1953 one of your analogs?

It was considered but it wasn't close to being a top analog.

[HM]

This might hint at a colder February than normal for Ninas in the east if that is the case. Or maybe latter Feb into March. We haven't seen that too much in a Nina since the big late Feb-March 2001 pattern shift. We seemed to have a smaller shift in '09 during that time but it was short lived.

Yes it could mean that. To be honest, I have no idea how fast it will downwell. I am fairly confident for long range standards that this stratospheric warming will occur in tandem with the MJO during mid-late January (let's say 60% chance). With the increasing -QBO but lingering +QBO in the lowest levels, low solar and moderate La Nina, it could downwell in time for late February. Early February may also be cool with the effects of the MJO wave.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes it could mean that. To be honest, I have no idea how fast it will downwell. I am fairly confident for long range standards that this stratospheric warming will occur in tandem with the MJO during mid-late January (let's say 60% chance). With the increasing -QBO but lingering +QBO in the lowest levels, low solar and moderate La Nina, it could downwell in time for late February. Early February may also be cool with the effects of the MJO wave.

This means you also think January could come in cold again despite "popular" picks of it being warm in a Nina. I guess that is not fair to say just yet as a lot of winter forecasts haven't come out yet, but its been a popular theme in the past few Ninas and I've seen it at least a couple times in the early going.

[uncle W]

Well February 1965 wasn't exactly warm or mild. Most areas were at or below normal in the Northeast but the heart of the cold was west of the area. I suppose 73-74 bucks the trend but that year's MJO timing was different than what is expected this season. The MJO shifted the pattern to cold during February with a -NAO response. So, yeah, I guess that could happen again, but I would bet it will likely be more in January again.

While I have noted the summertime AO/NAO, I don't just say that affects the winter AO. Why would this connection exist? What is the correlation coefficient? As far as this upcoming winter, no one is suggesting it will average positive. The concern will be the EPO.

if you look at the lowest ao August's they all had a lower index during the winter months...2011 had one of the lowest readings...I believe off the btop of my head 1977 and 1964 had a lower reading...1960 was 4th...

[ORH_wxman]

While I have noted the summertime AO/NAO, I don't just say that affects the winter AO. Why would this connection exist? What is the correlation coefficient? As far as this upcoming winter, no one is suggesting it will average positive. The concern will be the EPO.

I found one on eastern in a thread of mine. I certainly do not know the cause...but in summer where the NAO was more than -1 on avg using SLP method, it was almost always a -NAO winter. The relationship did not work when the NAO was fairly weak in one direction or the other...but strongly -NAO summers correlated very well to -NAO winters. I think it simply might have to do with the decadal cycle...but I do think there is a correlation. Atmospheric reasoning might be a lot tougher to conclude though.

[HM]

I found one on eastern in a thread of mine. I certainly do not know the cause...but in summer where the NAO was more than -1 on avg using SLP method, it was almost always a -NAO winter. The relationship did not work when the NAO was fairly weak in one direction or the other...but strongly -NAO summers correlated very well to -NAO winters. I think it simply might have to do with the decadal cycle...but I do think there is a correlation. Atmospheric reasoning might be a lot tougher to conclude though.

Yeah I have seen that stuff. My point is: there better be other reasons to think that this winter's NAO/AO will be negative other than the summertime average. It could just be decadal noise. If someone wishes to present the data and statistics, that would be much appreciated.

A raging positive EPO with a negative east based NAO block could easily occur after a summertime -NAO.

[ORH_wxman]

BTW HM, I'm looking more at the Aleutian Ridge and Nina/QBO stuff you posted earlier, and I said I would go deeper into it...it really seems like you might have something to the phases...esp when they are deep layer qbo phases...the mixed phases seem to have the more variant results...I think your deep layer QBO phases are more consistent....I'll post some maps after I look further into this.

But I think your theory about the deep layer QBO is correct. It definitely seems that the Aleutian Ridge has much more reason to be amplified in absence of a deep layer -QBO. But this doesn't say anything about the NAO necessarily yet.

[HM]

BTW HM, I'm looking more at the Aleutian Ridge and Nina/QBO stuff you posted earlier, and I said I would go deeper into it...it really seems like you might have something to the phases...esp when they are deep layer qbo phases...the mixed phases seem to have the more variant results...I think your deep layer QBO phases are more consistent....I'll post some maps after I look further into this.

But I think your theory about the deep layer QBO is correct. It definitely seems that the Aleutian Ridge has much more reason to be amplified in absence of a deep layer -QBO. But this doesn't say anything about the NAO necessarily yet.

Thanks Will. Don't forget to check this post out:

I addressed some issues Brian had while tackling some of the mixed years. They were overwhelmingly in support of the original idea.

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks Will. Don't forget to check this post out: http://www.americanw...post__p__967776

I addressed some issues Brian had while tackling some of the mixed years. They were overwhelmingly in support of the original idea.

This year is definitely tougher accounting for the fact that the lower level qbo will remain westerly more than the 30mb for longer. I've always hated using the QBO a lot...but its hard to ignore the more you learn about it. NAO can also trump it too...which is always why I can never have the stones to put out a monthly winter forecast....but it definitely seems like it will want to make that Aleutian ridge do some things....and this year is almost a crap shoot. The deep layer qbo seems to force it so much more, which goes along with your ideas.

[tacoman25]

Well February 1965 wasn't exactly warm or mild. Most areas were at or below normal in the Northeast but the heart of the cold was west of the area. I suppose 73-74 bucks the trend but that year's MJO timing was different than what is expected this season. The MJO shifted the pattern to cold during February with a -NAO response. So, yeah, I guess that could happen again, but I would bet it will likely be more in January again.

While I have noted the summertime AO/NAO, I don't just say that affects the winter AO. Why would this connection exist? What is the correlation coefficient? As far as this upcoming winter, no one is suggesting it will average positive. The concern will be the EPO.

During the -PDO phase, and especially during low solar, big +EPO does not seem to be as much of a concern. Just as the NAO has trended more negative in recent years, so has the EPO, and I don't expect that to change this winter.

[tacoman25]

This means you also think January could come in cold again despite "popular" picks of it being warm in a Nina. I guess that is not fair to say just yet as a lot of winter forecasts haven't come out yet, but its been a popular theme in the past few Ninas and I've seen it at least a couple times in the early going.

If you are interested, here is my winter outlook: http://westernusawx....opic=32623&st=0

I have November cool in the NE, December near normal (warmer further south), January cool, February near normal but maybe a bit below normal, and March cool. I think the only areas likely to see a blowtorch month or two is the south central U.S. (most likely February and/or March) and the far Southeast (most likely December).

[tacoman25]

I found one on eastern in a thread of mine. I certainly do not know the cause...but in summer where the NAO was more than -1 on avg using SLP method, it was almost always a -NAO winter. The relationship did not work when the NAO was fairly weak in one direction or the other...but strongly -NAO summers correlated very well to -NAO winters. I think it simply might have to do with the decadal cycle...but I do think there is a correlation. Atmospheric reasoning might be a lot tougher to conclude though.

There is a similar relationship with -PDO. Very -PDO summers like 2011 have a high correlation with very -PDO winters. Most signs seem to be pointing towards another blocky winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

[cooling climate]

BTW HM, I'm looking more at the Aleutian Ridge and Nina/QBO stuff you posted earlier, and I said I would go deeper into it...it really seems like you might have something to the phases...esp when they are deep layer qbo phases...the mixed phases seem to have the more variant results...I think your deep layer QBO phases are more consistent....I'll post some maps after I look further into this.

But I think your theory about the deep layer QBO is correct. It definitely seems that the Aleutian Ridge has much more reason to be amplified in absence of a deep layer -QBO. But this doesn't say anything about the NAO necessarily yet.

I do not mean this to be nasty but at the end of the day all HM has is theories not fact.

Last winters predicted no brainer as I recall HM putting it was more than just wrong it

was not even wrong ( if your not familiar with the term look it up on Wikipedia).

Apologies if this post sounds a bit harsh. Plenty of cold to come for America and Europe

again this winter I feel.

[HM]

During the -PDO phase, and especially during low solar, big +EPO does not seem to be as much of a concern. Just as the NAO has trended more negative in recent years, so has the EPO, and I don't expect that to change this winter.

Yeah, I don't expect a late 90s styled Northeast Pacific setup either. In fact, the original post is clear evidence that the lingering +QBO will help aid in a more poleward Aleutian High. The only thing is: the EPO has been raging positive lately, more than last year at this time. But as you know, that's suppose to happen in the autumn with these setups.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/epo.png

[HM]

I do not mean this to be nasty but at the end of the day all HM has is theories not fact.

Last winters predicted no brainer as I recall HM putting it was more than just wrong it

was not even wrong ( if your not familiar with the term look it up on Wikipedia).

Apologies if this post sounds a bit harsh. Plenty of cold to come for America and Europe

again this winter I feel.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you either have something mistaken or have the wrong person. I think you are confusing this original post's intent which isn't a winter outlook. No crap it is a theory; everything is a theory until new evidence emerges to discount it. That is science. And in your futile attempt to argue for a cold picture, you clearly missed the point of the original thread and what it is saying: the lingering +QBO helps promote a more poleward Aleutian High and more cold air.

So as much as I'm afraid to ask...what the hell are you talking about?

[ORH_wxman]

I do not mean this to be nasty but at the end of the day all HM has is theories not fact.

Last winters predicted no brainer as I recall HM putting it was more than just wrong it

was not even wrong ( if your not familiar with the term look it up on Wikipedia).

Apologies if this post sounds a bit harsh. Plenty of cold to come for America and Europe

again this winter I feel.

Theories are how we advance the science of longer range forecasting. It wasn't that long ago that meteorologists had no idea of the difference between El Nino and La Nina and how it pertains to winter...now its common practice to track ENSO.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you either have something mistaken or have the wrong person. I think you are confusing this original post's intent which isn't a winter outlook. No crap it is a theory; everything is a theory until new evidence emerges to discount it. That is science. And in your futile attempt to argue for a cold picture, you clearly missed the point of the original thread and what it is saying: the lingering +QBO helps promote a more poleward Aleutian High and more cold air.

So as much as I'm afraid to ask...what the hell are you talking about?

LOL, he is clueless Dude. Great thread.

[CoastalWx]

I do not mean this to be nasty but at the end of the day all HM has is theories not fact.

Last winters predicted no brainer as I recall HM putting it was more than just wrong it

was not even wrong ( if your not familiar with the term look it up on Wikipedia).

Apologies if this post sounds a bit harsh. Plenty of cold to come for America and Europe

again this winter I feel.

Look at the title of this thread. If we are going to talk about possible explanations, then we are going to discuss theories. Atmospheric science is filled with theory...in fact probably moreso than any other science. There is defintely something to the QBO relationship imo.

[tacoman25]

Look at the title of this thread. If we are going to talk about possible explanations, then we are going to discuss theories. Atmospheric science is filled with theory...in fact probably moreso than any other science. There is defintely something to the QBO relationship imo.

I think the QBO is a factor, but a much smaller one than many of the others such as ENSO, NAO, PDO, etc. This is demonstrated by the much smaller correlations evident when the QBO is isolated as a factor, as compared to these other variables.

[ORH_wxman]

I think the QBO is a factor, but a much smaller one than many of the others such as ENSO, NAO, PDO, etc. This is demonstrated by the much smaller correlations evident when the QBO is isolated as a factor, as compared to these other variables.

I think this thread is trying to discuss how the QBO in tandem with enso can affect things. A straight QBO correlation to our weather doesn't work very well, but when it teams up with certain ENSO conditions it seems to be a bigger factor. Specifically we've hammered the Aleutian ridge placement in this thread....and related it to the NAO/AO somewhat.

NAO is a bigger factor directly, but its possible the QBO can help facilitate or maintain an NAO block.

[CoastalWx]

I think this thread is trying to discuss how the QBO in tandem with enso can affect things. A straight QBO correlation to our weather doesn't work very well, but when it teams up with certain ENSO conditions it seems to be a bigger factor. Specifically we've hammered the Aleutian ridge placement in this thread....and related it to the NAO/AO somewhat.

NAO is a bigger factor directly, but its possible the QBO can help facilitate or maintain an NAO block.

Exactly. It's factor among many and we're just trying to see how the H5 setups differ vs +QBO and -QBO.

[HM]

I think this thread is trying to discuss how the QBO in tandem with enso can affect things. A straight QBO correlation to our weather doesn't work very well, but when it teams up with certain ENSO conditions it seems to be a bigger factor. Specifically we've hammered the Aleutian ridge placement in this thread....and related it to the NAO/AO somewhat.

NAO is a bigger factor directly, but its possible the QBO can help facilitate or maintain an NAO block.

Yes. Trying to run a linear correlation with the QBO won't get you far outside of the blocking relationship. You also cannot put the "NAO" in the same list as ENSO, PDO and QBO because we are talking about different time scales in general.

It has been known since the 80's what direct effects the QBO has and how it works in relation to other variables and processes. I feel like a broken record about the QBO sometimes.

[tacoman25]

I think this thread is trying to discuss how the QBO in tandem with enso can affect things. A straight QBO correlation to our weather doesn't work very well, but when it teams up with certain ENSO conditions it seems to be a bigger factor. Specifically we've hammered the Aleutian ridge placement in this thread....and related it to the NAO/AO somewhat.

NAO is a bigger factor directly, but its possible the QBO can help facilitate or maintain an NAO block.

Sure. But I've seen stronger correlations in tandem with ENSO dismissed on here. Just saying.

[HM]

Sure. But I've seen stronger correlations in tandem with ENSO dismissed on here. Just saying.

Are you talking about your October temperature thing? I get the feeling you are just trying to be argumentative right now.