PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109011236 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011090112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011 AL, 94, 2011090112, , BEST, 0, 375N, 637W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Off to the races here... (I know it isn't terribly interesting... but the battle between 93 and 94L, IMO, is ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I'd be a little surprised if they don't Lee (verb) it at 11. It looks good (as far as these things go). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 SHIPS was initialized with 35kt winds, takes it up to a peak of 53kt in 36 hours, weakens it slowly before becoming extratropical in 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I'd be a little surprised if they don't Lee (verb) it at 11. It looks good (as far as these things go). You really think so? It's only a 10% lemon now. I guess that didn't stop them with Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 SHIPS was initialized with 35kt winds, takes it up to a peak of 53kt in 36 hours, weakens it slowly before becoming extratropical in 60 hours. Strength wise, 94L is most favored to become Lee if it can become more detached from the front it is on (or unless they decide to go subtropical) since 93L is still a bit diffuse. You really think so? It's only a 10% lemon now. I guess that didn't stop them with Jose. This part is true, but I think we are more likely to see a significant increase in the % chance of development at the 2 PM outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I'd rather have a storm with a spicy Latina name like 'Maria' go all Anita on Mexico. Lee is one of those "its Pat" names like Robin and Chris. So generic and unisexual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 A few phase diagrams: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/11090106/34.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 2. UPDATED...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW IS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 2. UPDATED...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW IS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Very nice... although it is sheared, 94L has produced a nice blowup of convection just east of the center... this may be TS Lee at 5 or 11 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I've gotten really fond of 45 mph naked swirls this year – I think I have a numbers fetish. If it gets us one more letter closer to Alpha, I'm game for a 3-advisory Lee or Maria. I think there's something to be said, also, about having something new on the backburner every few days, while the main shows are making their way across the western hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 This will likely become Lee within 12 hours... its been maintaining plenty of convection and has a well organized llc. The only remaining question is if this has warm core characteristics, and it seems pretty obvious based on the image below its warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 This will likely become Lee within 12 hours... its been maintaining plenty of convection and has a well organized llc. The only remaining question is if this has warm core characteristics, and it seems pretty obvious based on the image below its warm core. Totally agree... we'll probably have a cherry at 2 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Totally agree... we'll probably have a cherry at 2 PM I love guessing when high latitude systems are going to get named Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I love guessing when high latitude systems are going to get named this wouldn't have been named in 1786 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 still at 50% now that they've updated. (pardon the continual edits...NHC didn't update their entry right away after the TWO link showed up on twitter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 I love guessing when high latitude systems are going to get named I feel like it's like trying to throw a dart at a dartboard that's moving at 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Lost it's convection attm, but I think there will be another spurt soon...it also looks that it drifted a bit south... any gain south would bring it to slightly lower shear levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 this wouldn't have been named in 1786 or even 1986. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I love guessing when high latitude systems are going to get named Sometimes that's just dependent on when the NHC wants to call it a system If we get a little come convective continuity I think we will have Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Regarding track scenarios, where could 94l go in the future days and does anyone think it could bring some weather into Nova Scotia ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Regarding track scenarios, where could 94l go in the future days and does anyone think it could bring some weather into Nova Scotia ?? If you want to believe the ECWMF, the system gets tangled up in a frontal boundary and dissipates to your southeast long before it has a chance to get that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 This worked with Jose last time! Lets go Diurnal Max! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It will be a race for names...either way it looks like Lee and Maria will be in use within the next 24 hours, the same timeframe as 2005. The wave exiting Africa would then be the favorite to become Nate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Up to 60% 1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT450 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATEDDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OFTROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATIONCOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THIS SYSTEM HASA HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 this wouldn't have been named in 1786 If it had hit a ship at sea, it might have show up as the September Gale of 1786 and someone would have later decided it was a TC. Especially if it had been a convoy of ships, and one sank with the governor general of Bermuda or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 What kind of effect will this have of Katia? this should fujiwara katia out to sea. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 If it had hit a ship at sea, it might have show up as the September Gale of 1786 and someone would have later decided it was a TC. Especially if it had been a convoy of ships, and one sank with the governor general of Bermuda or something. In all seriousness, I don't think any sailor would have thought anything of it... I can't imagine seas are much higher than a couple/few feet under that, and winds are probably well below gale force in most of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 In all seriousness, I don't think any sailor would have thought anything of it... I can't imagine seas are much higher than a couple/few feet under that, and winds are probably well below gale force in most of the circulation. We'd have a way better idea of its gales if ASCAT wasn't such a frustrating product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 We'd have a way better idea of its gales if ASCAT wasn't such a frustrating product I miss QuikSCAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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