phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I am hoping that philippe obliterates a francophone country/area...martinique sounds like a good target Just as long as we can give Haiti a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I was trying to compare, named storm wise, this year, 2005, and 1995... on September 1, 1995 we were on Luis, and on September 1, 2005 we were on Lee (with Maria just becoming a TD).... the big difference between the two years, of course, is that 1995 shut down early, while 2005 had an unbelievably active September, October, and November. I also think... albeit it is quite unlikely... that it would be quite ironic if 98L and 99L both formed before 97L... as our Gulf threat would then be Katia, the name that replaced Katrina. at whoever had the job of coming up with new names for the retired ones, especially if this potential landfalling storm ends up being named Katia (not to mention in that situation it would likely hit land within a few days of Katrina six years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 at whoever had the job of coming up with new names for the retired ones, especially if this potential landfalling storm ends up being named Katia (not to mention in that situation it would likely hit land within a few days of Katrina six years ago. My favorite was how Rina replaced Rita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 My favorite was how Rina replaced Rita. The name Rina is dumb, but if you type that and then Rita into Google Images, Rina wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 We are only two named storms away from the average for the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 That aforementioned powerful wave that the global models picked up on is about to exit the coast of Senegal and nearby places. It may have a circulation, based on the last visible pictures available. Dakar is in for a squally night. The global models have backed off its intensity though once it emerges tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 That aforementioned powerful wave that the global models picked up on is about to exit the coast of Senegal and nearby places. It may have a circulation, based on the last visible pictures available. Dakar is in for a squally night. The global models have backed off its intensity though once it emerges tomorrow. Agreed... looks like a pretty vigorous wave with a well defined anticyclone. Seems like SAL might not be as huge of a problem as it was for 98L with a pretty moist mid-upper level environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 I thought I should take a moment to commemorate the birth of the season's first hurricane, Irene-- and the end of the spectacular stream of crappiness. The Lord hath brought uis a real cyclone. Finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I thought I should take a moment to commemorate the birth of the season's first hurricane, Irene-- and the end of the spectacular stream of crappiness. The Lord hath brought uis a real cyclone. Finally. Congrats. blossoming nicely...I'd buy her a few drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 So, uh, did I miss anything while I was gone over the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Nothing screams out for immediate attention, but pattern for a possible Texas drought buster going from absolutely unlikely to absolutely it could happen, although not perfect, in September, and I'm seeing hints out past a week of happiness in Steve's beloeved 'Carla Cradle'. Not bullish, but not completely bearish, either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Interesting how the UK and GFS are developing the wave off Africa eventually, while the ECMWF just destroys it. I wonder what will be right... yeah i know Irene is a big problem too but always gotta pay attention for the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Interesting how the UK and GFS are developing the wave off Africa eventually, while the ECMWF just destroys it. I wonder what will be right... yeah i know Irene is a big problem too but always gotta pay attention for the next one... I liked the looks of it this morning, but convection has really fizzled. Its also not going to get much upper level support as both this wave and 98L are feeling the effects of the subsidence phase of a kelvin wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 90L is gonna be a fish. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I was right with the trend no matter what the setup it always goes east and that is why I doubt the area will see a hurricane for long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 I was right with the trend no matter what the setup it always goes east and that is why I doubt the area will see a hurricane for long time. What area? NY? If so, climo agrees with you, as NY is not a hurricane-prone region and never has been. If you mean the USA, it's premature to say that in August. Not every hurricane that hits the USA comes from Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This is where somebody should add a friendly reminder that last year at this time, Earl was still one day away from being born and Danielle was a cat 2 hurricane briefly before it encountered a surprise dry air intrusion. The season is still very young Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 90L is gonna be a fish. Blah. We need some good ol home brew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FWIW, the 12Z GFS in the medium to long ranges shows both a Gulf System originating in the western caribbean and has a signal for a long tracker. Something to watch for possible trends in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FWIW, the 12Z GFS in the medium to long ranges shows both a Gulf System originating in the western caribbean and has a signal for a long tracker. Something to watch for possible trends in future runs. I see the GOM system, but what should I be looking at in terms of the signal for a long tracker? I know it is in the long-range, but are you buying the deep trough across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the CONUS that steers the GOM system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 There are no imminent threats to land, with the exception of Irene in the model world, but one thing that caught my eye is that the GOM is currently with the most expansive 30C+ area since at least 1979 according to CFSR CFS SST Reanalysis... thanks to the lower than normal surface pressures and fair conditions, which loosen the gradient across the GOM, and has as a consequence that winds are weaker than normal with little cloud cover... and that conditions are forecasted to persist for at least 1 week. Now we just need a storm to take advantage of it in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 There is some agreement in the long range that a wave over central Africa will find a decent environment-- the 12z ec/gfs were pretty close on a system in a central tropical Atlantic by day 8. Gotta get the mid-oceanic trough out of the way, which intensifies bc of Irene and convection moving into the eastern Hemisphere. Can't be much worse than 90L moving north before 40W though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 There is some agreement in the long range that a wave over central Africa will find a decent environment-- the 12z ec/gfs were pretty close on a system in a central tropical Atlantic by day 8. Gotta get the mid-oceanic trough out of the way, which intensifies bc of Irene and convection moving into the eastern Hemisphere. Can't be much worse than 90L moving north before 40W though! Yea 90L is a goner thanks to the mid-oceanic trough. I'm worried though that it gets stuck as the trough starts to lift out, creating a large enough weakness to draw the next wave northward as well. This is what the GFS has been depicting off and on, although the most recent run shows the ridge rebuilding back in just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 In the medium to long-range, it appears that the trough pattern over the east will end and be replaced by a ridge. This is supported by the ensemble mean of both the GFS and ECMWF. I believe the main issue with getting a Carribean Cruiser or long-tracker is whether any potential system can slide underneath the trough in the mid-Atlantic. There has been a suggestion (I won't say by who, but you can probably guess) that the GOM will only be open for a 5-7 day period, followed by a return to the current pattern. This person actually states that the GOM will shut down; however, it is not clear if he means for the remainder of the season or only for a time. I think it would be irresponsible to say that GOM will shut down, especially given the threat the eastern Gulf faces in October of nearly every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol did somebody just turn off the new convective parameterization that the GFS was upgraded to last year On a more serious note, look for this to get upgraded to at least code yellow at 2am. This is NOT Invest 98L but a mid-level low pressure that is attempting to work its way down to the surface, and thus far being surprisingly successful! It only has about 12-24 hours before it runs into the upper level outflow of Irene, but its worth watching for quick genesis if it can maintain its composure right now. Windsat pass earlier today when it was at its minimum convection wise shows evidence that there was something brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Next two possible disturbances might be rather boring. First is a BoC disturbance moving WNW to NW towards the Tamaulipas coast... Ridge might be building eastward from the SW CONUS thanks to Irene's exiting stage to the right and a trough entering the NW Pac, so other than deep S TX, I think the CONUS will not be threatened if something forms out of it. This is in the 3-5 day range. The second disturbance might get stronger, but it is a CV wave that has a high chance of fishing. This is also in the 3+ day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Next two possible disturbances might be rather boring. First is a BoC disturbance moving WNW to NW towards the Tamaulipas coast... Ridge might be building eastward from the SW CONUS thanks to Irene's exiting stage to the right and a trough entering the NW Pac, so other than deep S TX, I think the CONUS will not be threatened if something forms out of it. This is in the 3-5 day range. The second disturbance might get stronger, but it is a CV wave that has a high chance of fishing. This is also in the 3+ day range. Yup. I agree, Jorge. Sounds like I'll have a relaxing vacation in Boulder next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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