0z Model thread for nyc/philly

[tombo82685]

out to 6 hrs for me so far

[tombo82685]

this is prob not going to have many people in this cause i believe everyone is in the chat listening to how dt is saying this is going to the lakes

[atownwxwatcher]

this is prob not going to have many people in this cause i believe everyone is in the chat listening to how dt is saying this is going to the lakes

Then you know its going to be an east coast snowstorm

[isnice]

DT is in the chatroom for the 00z run:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=ipchat

[earthlight]

A lot of mets here in Central VA is saying this storm is going to take the N & W track and could be as far west as the lakes, they dismiss the past GFS runs.

Certainly a possibility should the blocking break down a bit faster and the shortwave come in stronger/phase earlier.

[tombo82685]

john, i would favor that solution to, but you can't say for certain, its what 8 days out. Again it all comes down to that first clipper. Things can change so easily. Remember earthlights thread on what we need for todays potential, well if you looked about 3 days after he wrote that things were so vastly different it was scary. The only thing that sucks is it seems like that when a lake cutter is progged it never varies, with ec storms they always change

[NaoPos]

john, i would favor that solution to, but you can't say for certain, its what 8 days out. Again it all comes down to that first clipper. Things can change so easily. Remember earthlights thread on what we need for todays potential, well if you looked about 3 days after he wrote that things were so vastly different it was scary. The only thing that sucks is it seems like that when a lake cutter is progged it never varies, with ec storms they always change

i was just about to write this

[opengeo]

john, i would favor that solution to, but you can't say for certain, its what 8 days out. Again it all comes down to that first clipper. Things can change so easily. Remember earthlights thread on what we need for todays potential, well if you looked about 3 days after he wrote that things were so vastly different it was scary. The only thing that sucks is it seems like that when a lake cutter is progged it never varies, with ec storms they always change

I mentioned this earlier. It is true.

[tombo82685]

hr 84 has a sub 1000 clipper just a little north of the 18z gfs position

[tombo82685]

hr 90 has sub 1000 low north of the ne nd border in canada

[Radders]

john, i would favor that solution to, but you can't say for certain, its what 8 days out. Again it all comes down to that first clipper. Things can change so easily. Remember earthlights thread on what we need for todays potential, well if you looked about 3 days after he wrote that things were so vastly different it was scary. The only thing that sucks is it seems like that when a lake cutter is progged it never varies, with ec storms they always change

My theory on that one is that there is still a large amount of the storm track jumping around, but because we are looking at it from a completely different perspective, e.g. we have lost interest and are not focused on all the detailed specifics (temps/surface low positioning/850 temps/thickness etc) we just see it as a lakes cutter.. I bet if we lived in the OH valley area back towards IL, we would be just as stressed about every slight adjustment!

Anyway, back to the GFS, I see the clipper looks like it is moving due East along the canadian border and MN at 96, and the energy from the next shortwave that maybe the storm is entering the NW US.

[tombo82685]

so far through hr 108 a good bit warmer in the mid west, 850 wise

[SnoSki14]

Why are people saying it's going to cut into the lakes, it may also cut through the Appalachians, the lakes are probably too far west.

[tombo82685]

so far out to hr 129 doesnt look good, the cold air has hit a wall the storm is gathering strength in the plains

[tombo82685]

hr 135 has a sub 1008 low in se ok 850s on 40 n parallel

[ag3]

Tombo.

Change title of this thread to "0z model thread for NYC/Philly".

People think this is a main model thread. And they are wrong. We only care about our region here and that's why it's a regional model thread.

[CarolineWx]

I think its going to be way west this run by the look of the model so far

[atownwxwatcher]

126 GFS surface

[tombo82685]

Tombo.

Change title of this thread to "0z model thread for NYC/Philly".

People think this is a main model thread. And they are wrong. We only care about our region here and that's why it's a regional model thread.

done

[Allsnow]

Verbatiam the clipper is prob light snow at hr 120

[ag3]

done

That's perfect.

[atownwxwatcher]

144 hrs surface

[tombo82685]

hr 162 has a primary over sw corner of va transfering to central va

[tombo82685]

hr 168 is a sub 996 low over dc

[Allsnow]

hr 162 has a primary over sw corner of va transfering to central va

No preciep yet? Not seeing hr 162, one would think we start as snow

[tombo82685]

hr 171 sub 992 over phl

[tombo82685]

No preciep yet? Not seeing hr 162, one would think we start as snow

yea we start as snow then go over to ice for a little then over to rain

[tombo82685]

very cold air behind the storm, looks like the winners are w pa and ny

[MJO812]

Apps runner on this run. The cold air needs to come in faster.

[Riptide]

Apps runner on this run. The cold air needs to come in faster.

The -NAO block went straight to &^!@ on this run.