Record longest -NAO streak (going back to 1950) set today

[BethesdaWX]

More evidence - perhaps - supportive of the multi-decadal oscillation's nose dive post 2000

I believe despite the background GW we are on a local decadal time-scale declination in temperature - which may only be expressed in a leveling off as the former and latter via for dominance in the global system of thermal source and sink.

Do you speak of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? Or is it the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation?

I have found it interesting (if you reference the PDO), to the correlation to solar activity, as in, the SST indice regions vs the solar aspect and blocking to the NAO in teleconnection. I have never believed the PDO to have any reason behind the Flat-lining in temperatures either simply because the NPAC tends to be warmer in a -PDO phase.

Obviously I don't have as much right to speak on this compared to you, but I find it interesting when the AA-index value for geomagnetism & the overall magnetic discharge value from the sun is taken into account...

The AA value is smoothed obviously, and we had another high peak from 2001-2005 with yr 2004 recording an all time record high.

Perturbations:

So I feel it is a chicken-type thing, cause-effect, or whatever you wanna call it. It is hard to tell, obviously there is a missing link in the chain, but I feel the Sun is at the root of everything, even the "Step" function we've seen in global temperatures since 1850. In fact it would make perfect sence.

So with a -QBO SSW events may be open for business with less torque and even a higher solar wind value.

[tacoman25]

I think the solar factor determines alot, years like 1917-18 come to mind, 2008-09 is an OK analog too, but it had the +QBO involved. I do not think the solar activity levels need to drop even as low as last winter given the -QBO, but I'm talking out of my ass on that.

The Sun Activity aspect makes analogs from the 1950's, 60's, etc a bit hard to use.

I agree that it is a difference that should be noted and accounted for when making outlooks, but I'm sure there are things about 1917-18 that don't match perfectly either. Given recent trends and continued low overall solar activity, I wouldn't bet against significant NH blocking this winter - but that doesn't make 1950s analogs irrelevant by any means.

[BethesdaWX]

I agree that it is a difference that should be noted and accounted for when making outlooks, but I'm sure there are things about 1917-18 that don't match perfectly either. Given recent trends and continued low overall solar activity, I wouldn't bet against significant NH blocking this winter - but that doesn't make 1950s analogs irrelevant by any means.

Completely agree, I didn't mean for it to come off that way (in that the 1950's are irrelevant). I do think using analog years like 2008-09, and 2010-11 in tandom may be useful for several reasons.

My bro knows all about this forecasting stuff, I'm just a hobbyist so taking me seriously may not be a good idea

[Matt Rogers]

This 12-month running mean (through July 2011) of the NAO shows the amazing negative trend since the 1990s and how deep we have now gone:

[GaWx]

Today's NAO is ~-0.45, extending the -NAO streak to 68 days. Tomorrow may be positive, which would end the streak at 68 days.

[Dsnowx53]

Funny thing about 2008-2009 is that there was an epic -NAO block forming in January, and it did form for a brief period of time. However, the Pacific was absolutely awful, as there was a HUGE vortex in Alaska, which was obviously a very warm, Pacific air-mass influenced pattern signal. The huge -NAO block and the vortex "fought", and while neither dominated the fight, as both features somewhat disintegrated so to speak, the resulting pattern was simply one that lead to an arctic intrusion but wasn't very blocky. You could argue that the -NAO block had the slight "victory", so to speak.

It was just amazing to see that a very strong Atlantic feature was able to fight with and somewhat beat a very strong Pacific feature. Normally, you'd think very strong Pacific features would win out. It went to show that a very strong -NAO block has the ability to trump most patterns, and if we get the strong Atlantic signals for great blocking...as long as the Pacific isn't horrid then I would assume that we'd get some great blocking episodes this winter.

And yeah, there certainly is the chicken-egg debate. I actually thought the huge -NAO helped the buckle the pattern so to speak, and thus was able to make things more meridional, and force the Aleutian high to be much further NW than climo...the fact that the Aleutian high was so strong and in that place helped to REINFORCE the connection, but I actually thought the -NAO was the main trigger.

[WxMidwest]

One could say the orientation of the NAO is just as important as the static strength of it in +/- Phase. The Pacific is very important as many do not realize the importance of late fall Northern Pacific Blocking PAtterns as it pertains to the upcoming Winter. The Alaskan/NW Canada blocking pattern is another way to get cold into the U.S. too, not just greenland. The EPO is important, and not to far away from the NAO in that importance, even as it applies to the Northeast.

[A-L-E-X]

Funny thing about 2008-2009 is that there was an epic -NAO block forming in January, and it did form for a brief period of time. However, the Pacific was absolutely awful, as there was a HUGE vortex in Alaska, which was obviously a very warm, Pacific air-mass influenced pattern signal. The huge -NAO block and the vortex "fought", and while neither dominated the fight, as both features somewhat disintegrated so to speak, the resulting pattern was simply one that lead to an arctic intrusion but wasn't very blocky. You could argue that the -NAO block had the slight "victory", so to speak.

It was just amazing to see that a very strong Atlantic feature was able to fight with and somewhat beat a very strong Pacific feature. Normally, you'd think very strong Pacific features would win out. It went to show that a very strong -NAO block has the ability to trump most patterns, and if we get the strong Atlantic signals for great blocking...as long as the Pacific isn't horrid then I would assume that we'd get some great blocking episodes this winter.

And yeah, there certainly is the chicken-egg debate. I actually thought the huge -NAO helped the buckle the pattern so to speak, and thus was able to make things more meridional, and force the Aleutian high to be much further NW than climo...the fact that the Aleutian high was so strong and in that place helped to REINFORCE the connection, but I actually thought the -NAO was the main trigger.

Doug, another thing we have to be mindful of is what kind of -NAO do we get? An east based -NAO (which may partly be the result of a bad Pacific) is useless for us. I think the chicken-egg debate isn't actually a valid one because the individual parts of the system feedback and affect each other.... there is no single cause that leads to a single effect, but rather multiple causes that have multiple effects (what I call cascading cause and effect or polycausality.)

[DMADKAT]

I think the solar factor determines alot, years like 1917-18 come to mind, 2008-09 is an OK analog too, but it had the +QBO involved. I do not think the solar activity levels need to drop even as low as last winter given the -QBO, but I'm talking out of my ass on that.

The Sun Activity aspect makes analogs from the 1950's, 60's, etc a bit hard to use.

You bet baby! The sun levels are where we have never seen. The winter will be incredible!

[DMADKAT]

I liked the 1956 analog but its summer was much cooler...I'd take 1964-65 over that year and they were both similar around NYC...2008-09 was similar also...

These modern day analogs are not much use cause the patterns we are gonna see are from 1790 to 1820 . Dalton minimum analogs are what you guys need to be looking at ! OH YEAH , WE DON'T HAVE SUCH ANALOGS.

[uncle W]

These modern day analogs are not much use cause the patterns we are gonna see are from 1790 to 1820 . Dalton minimum analogs are what you guys need to be looking at ! OH YEAH , WE DON'T HAVE SUCH ANALOGS.

I wasn't around then...I was born a few years later...:lol:One thing for sure is the year without a summer in 1816 is not a good analog this year...

[nzucker]

Funny thing about 2008-2009 is that there was an epic -NAO block forming in January, and it did form for a brief period of time. However, the Pacific was absolutely awful, as there was a HUGE vortex in Alaska, which was obviously a very warm, Pacific air-mass influenced pattern signal. The huge -NAO block and the vortex "fought", and while neither dominated the fight, as both features somewhat disintegrated so to speak, the resulting pattern was simply one that lead to an arctic intrusion but wasn't very blocky. You could argue that the -NAO block had the slight "victory", so to speak.

It was just amazing to see that a very strong Atlantic feature was able to fight with and somewhat beat a very strong Pacific feature. Normally, you'd think very strong Pacific features would win out. It went to show that a very strong -NAO block has the ability to trump most patterns, and if we get the strong Atlantic signals for great blocking...as long as the Pacific isn't horrid then I would assume that we'd get some great blocking episodes this winter.

And yeah, there certainly is the chicken-egg debate. I actually thought the huge -NAO helped the buckle the pattern so to speak, and thus was able to make things more meridional, and force the Aleutian high to be much further NW than climo...the fact that the Aleutian high was so strong and in that place helped to REINFORCE the connection, but I actually thought the -NAO was the main trigger.

Are you talking about a different winter? We had a dominant Aleutian high in Winter 08-09, not a vortex over AK. Also, the January cold was mostly brought about by blocking on the Pacific end, not the Atlantic.

Here was the 500mb anomaly in Winter 08-09:

Here was Jan 2009:

[BethesdaWX]

You bet baby! The sun levels are where we have never seen. The winter will be incredible!

I wouldn't bet on that yet lol

[Dsnowx53]

Are you talking about a different winter? We had a dominant Aleutian high in Winter 08-09, not a vortex over AK. Also, the January cold was mostly brought about by blocking on the Pacific end, not the Atlantic.

Here was the 500mb anomaly in Winter 08-09:

Here was Jan 2009:

In the means, it looked like that. But yes, I was talking about 2008-2009. There were absolutely terrible Pacific signals that were developing in late December/early January, but also a very strong -NAO block. The huge vortex in Alaska and the huge -NAO essentially canceled each other out, as both features somewhat disintegrated about a few days into January. That's why you don't see much of a result of them in the mean 500mb anomalies.

I also remember that Chuck's super blowtorch January of 2009 forecast was based on the horrible Pacific pattern coming to fruition, which it actually did. However, the super -NAO block that was developing rotted it away, and although the block also rotted away, we then still went to a very cold pattern.

What actually resulted in January 2009 500mb wise was a pretty good Pacific pattern and a bad Atlantic pattern. But how we got there (as I explained before), is always something that greatly intrigued me. The point I'm also trying to make is that if it wasn't for the awful Pacific pattern that was developing, we could have had a super -NAO block for most of January, making that THREE winters in a row with that kind of pattern, instead of two. Too bad that super block never really had a chance to get going for more than a day or two...

I think Will (ORH) might be able to describe what I'm talking about better than I currently am.

[bluewave]

I wasn't around then...I was born a few years later...:lol:One thing for sure is the year without a summer in 1816 is not a good analog this year...

A little before my time also but there were some great winters back in that era.

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~jsmerdon/papers/2011_grl_darrigoetal.pdf

[A-L-E-X]

A little before my time also but there were some great winters back in that era.

http://www.ldeo.colu...darrigoetal.pdf

Chris, it looks like 2010 beat all of those by a wide margin. How was the data from back then obtained? Tree rings?

[A-L-E-X]

I wasn't around then...I was born a few years later...:lol:One thing for sure is the year without a summer in 1816 is not a good analog this year...

Not unless we have another Tambora in our near future......

[bluewave]

Chris, it looks like 2010 beat all of those by a wide margin. How was the data from back then obtained? Tree rings?

Yeah,the paper said that they calibrated the tree ring data with a Gibralter-Iceland NAO index.

NAO reconstruction was calibrated with a Gibraltar‐Iceland NAO index [Jones et al., 1999] over 1826–1974

[nzucker]

I also remember that Chuck's super blowtorch January of 2009 forecast was based on the horrible Pacific pattern coming to fruition, which it actually did. However, the super -NAO block that was developing rotted it away, and although the block also rotted away, we then still went to a very cold pattern.

I still don't understand exactly; I can see if you're saying that the horrid Pacific pattern developed in late December with a large +EPO and anomalous westerly flow into the CONUS, during which time we had upper 60s for highs, but then the NAO block began to retrograde and allow heights to rise in the NE Pacific, leading to a cold pattern. Is this what you're attempting to communicate? I do believe the NAO started to go negative again before we developed the massive EPO block around January 16th that created a record-breaking arctic outbreak in New England and the Upper Midwest. Of course, the extremely low solar regime in Fall 2008 would have favored blocking in both parts of the hemisphere, so you can get into a bit of a chicken/egg argument here, and we had a decent Pacific for most of December so one can argue that an amplified Aleutian ridge was the preset pattern that winter, as the -PDO/weak Nina would have dictated.

[GaWx]

Nice discussions!

The -NAO streak ends at 68 days since today's was positive. How long may it be before we see another 68 day long -NAO? Another 60 years+? Just a few years from now? Any guesses?

[SoCoWx]

Uh..a couple of months maybe? I expect December and January to average as negative NAO months. Of course, there's no quarantee that every day for those two months will be negative. So we shall see.

[BethesdaWX]

Uh..a couple of months maybe? I expect December and January to average as negative NAO months. Of course, there's no quarantee that every day for those two months will be negative. So we shall see.

you will get no snow this winter

[Typhoon Tip]

There's some good research indicating that in solar periods such as this, the base value of the NAO is closer to -1 than it is to 0.... but, again, we may be coming out of that solar quietude, and headed towards a subdued maximum by around 2013 according to the latest predictions.

That's the prediction and probable.

The "subdued" characterization of the maximum is actually also the favored character for the next 10 years as suggested by linear progression during this temporal collocation of the 3 separate cycles, 11, 22, and ... 200 year?. Anyway, it will be an interesting how or if any of those local maxes effect on the AO/NAO domains - if that is even measurable.

The way it works is the minimum solar reduces ozone destruction, and that contributes to mid to late cold season SSW events; maximums increase the ozone reduction rates leading to the opposite result. The aerosol chemistry of the stratosphere is correlated to SSW's and blocking in general.

It is important to remember that there are other influences on those domains, such as planetary wave decay (WAA terminous at high latitudes) leading to transient blocking regimes as latent heat is transported en masse via extratropical cyclone conveyors. These are nearly impossible to predict at extended leads for obvious reasons - it's one reason why the NAO and EPO domains exhibit at times a high degree of stochastic variation, sometimes on intra-weekly time scales. However, if there is increased tendency for PWD events at high latitudes, this may bias the NAO and/or EPO domains as negative, conflicting with any nascent solar indicators. Let's not even go to the Indian Ocean if you really want to complicate the hell out of matters... Wind pulses over the Eurasian and Tibetan Plateau combined with SST's in the Indian Ocean is thought to be connected to MJO intensities. MJO mode strength has a weak-moderate negative correlation with the EPO and NAO, which makes sense because strong wave propagation leads to huge flux from teh subtropics, and this rolls out Rosby waves down wind - these tend to align physically and feed EPO/NAO blocking regions ... west or east based notwithstanding.

It is nice to see a strengthening Phase 1 while the NAO diving - odds are, 10 days later you got a buckle in the Pacific that drives the PNA to the moon, and with weak recovery in the NAO tending to be under way enters the archembaultian signal over eastern N/A. Trough drills in, cold is in place, boom. Just one example among many.

The planetary system is beyond complex.

[ORH_wxman]

I still don't understand exactly; I can see if you're saying that the horrid Pacific pattern developed in late December with a large +EPO and anomalous westerly flow into the CONUS, during which time we had upper 60s for highs, but then the NAO block began to retrograde and allow heights to rise in the NE Pacific, leading to a cold pattern. Is this what you're attempting to communicate? I do believe the NAO started to go negative again before we developed the massive EPO block around January 16th that created a record-breaking arctic outbreak in New England and the Upper Midwest. Of course, the extremely low solar regime in Fall 2008 would have favored blocking in both parts of the hemisphere, so you can get into a bit of a chicken/egg argument here, and we had a decent Pacific for most of December so one can argue that an amplified Aleutian ridge was the preset pattern that winter, as the -PDO/weak Nina would have dictated.

The PAC pattern was pretty awful the first 10 days of January that year for cold in the East. But it did flip to very favorable after that. However, I think the Atlantic side kept it from being a huge torch that early month.

At the time, it was the best Atlantic NAO block we had seen in quite some time during the winter. The blocks are not mutually exclusive however, which is why we always need to remember that not one single factor is responsible for an outcome like that.

[SoCoWx]

you will get no snow this winter

No one asked you, and that is not likely. As there has not been a single Winter since I've been alive that not a single snow event took place here. So it will snow. Whether we end up below normal or above normal is questionable. Of course, I highly doubt I'll end up seeing 22.05" again this Winter. Haha. Don't see too many Winter's that end up 200% AN.