NEOH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm getting a bit worried this might be a NW flow event where everything gets pushed inland. Looked good on the models last night, but some of the 6z runs taketh away. CLE is calling for nothing at the shore, look at this forecast, it's almost comical how the wording and snowfall don't make sense: Trent - I wouldn't be overly concerned. I don't think I've EVER seen a model handle LES accurately... even the WRF. They are consistenly off with placement of the bands and wind direction. The one thing going for the near lakeshore is the winds will not be as strong as previous events this year. Speeds shouldn't be any more than 20-25. The other positive I see is that the winds will start from WSW direction... which is ideal for setting-up a single band, then the winds will slowly come around to the WNW for a 6-8 period.... then once again shift back to the WSW as another shortwave moves through... then back around to the WNW -- you get the point. It's been awhile since we've had a set-up like this. What typically happens is that a long, single band forms on the WSW flow, then pushes south into the lakeshore counties as the winds come around more to the NW... the band tends to get hung-up near the lakeshore due to convergence. Snow amounts will depend on how long the band can hang around the shorline before pushing south. I do think we will have a single main band with possibly an upstream connection. How strong the band is and how long it lasts is the question. Shifting winds and shear are the inhibitors. We definitely don't want the winds to shift quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Trent - I wouldn't be overly concerned. I don't think I've EVER seen a model handle LES accurately... even the WRF. They are consistenly off with placement of the bands and wind direction. The one thing going for the near lakeshore is the winds will not be as strong as previous events this year. Speeds shouldn't be any more than 20-25. The other positive I see is that the winds will start from WSW direction... which is ideal for setting-up a single band, then the winds will slowly come around to the WNW for a 6-8 period.... then once again shift back to the WSW as another shortwave moves through... then back around to the WNW -- you get the point. It's been awhile since we've had a set-up like this. What typically happens is that a long, single band forms on the WSW flow, then pushes south into the lakeshore counties as the winds come around more to the NW... the band tends to get hung-up near the lakeshore due to convergence. Snow amounts will depend on how long the band can hang around the shorline before pushing south. I do think we will have a single main band with possibly an upstream connection. How strong the band is and how long it lasts is the question. Shifting winds and shear are the inhibitors. We definitely don't want the winds to shift quickly. I wonder if CLE will issue advisories/warnings for this event soon? It's going to be on off snow, so criteria might be hard to meet officially. At least the snow will be overnight mostly, generally easier to accumulate. BUF 12z has .3-.6 in cuyahoga for next 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wonder if CLE will issue advisories/warnings for this event soon? It's going to be on off snow, so criteria might be hard to meet officially. At least the snow will be overnight mostly, generally easier to accumulate. BUF 12z has .3-.6 in cuyahoga for next 36 hrs. Goods question about the advisories. I have no idea how they will handle them. It's been snowing lightly most of the morning. Large flakes so its accumulating. Looking upstream, it doesn't appear it is going to stop for awhile. What's more encouraging is to see the snow firing up over the other lakes... that should translate east later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Goods question about the advisories. I have no idea how they will handle them. It's been snowing lightly most of the morning. Large flakes so its accumulating. Looking upstream, it doesn't appear it is going to stop for awhile. What's more encouraging is to see the snow firing up over the other lakes... that should translate east later today. check out the pinned thread. If that blast verifies, this will be last LES event for a long time. The waters are basically hovering at freezing. The water between the shore and breakwater was ice free yesterday, but completely iced over today. Hopefully western basin has some holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like a short burst of snow about to move into central Oh. Radar shows what might be a little moderate burst moving along 70. It should whiten the ground and maybe an inch or so along that narrow strip of heavier showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like a short burst of snow about to move into central Oh. Radar shows what might be a little moderate burst moving along 70. It should whiten the ground and maybe an inch or so along that narrow strip of heavier showers. I picked up a dusting here but without having consistent snow it melts on the grass pretty quick. A lot of it has already melted in the 20 minutes its stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I picked up a dusting here but without having consistent snow it melts on the grass pretty quick. A lot of it has already melted in the 20 minutes its stopped. Yeah, we've had flurries off and on most of the day, but only sticking on the cars. It's getting later in the day, it should stick now if it just comes down a little harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Winter weather advisory out for Geauga and inland Ashtabula counties. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 331 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 OHZ013-014-PAZ002-003-070515- /O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0001.110106T2031Z-110107T1700Z/ GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARDON...JEFFERSON...EDINBORO... MEADVILLE 331 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $ OUDEMAN I'm still trying to figure out if an east-west band is going to just magically appear in Geauga county and screw the lake shore, not sure yet. Waiting for their AFD... 0.7" here thus far. Mainly light snow all day although there has been a gradual increase in intensity the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincywxpro Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Beginning to get reports of light snow accumulations on the grassy areas in portions of Southeastern Indiana and portions of Southwest Ohio (Butler, Preble and Montgomery Counties), all the snow showers right now in those areas will reach Central Ohio over the next couple of hours. Visibility levels drop off significantly around the Dayton area, where visibilities have dropped to near a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Winter weather advisory out for Geauga and inland Ashtabula counties. I'm still trying to figure out if an east-west band is going to just magically appear in Geauga county and screw the lake shore, not sure yet. Waiting for their AFD... 0.7" here thus far. Mainly light snow all day although there has been a gradual increase in intensity the last few hours. The advisory is odd. This is the best setup for all encompassing lake effect. I hate to say it yet again, but CLEs forecasts and warnings are generally irrelevant. CLE likes to nowcast LES, issuing warnings and advisories near the tail end of events. I remain cautiously optimistic for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Grass is almost covered here in Avon Lake, id estimate im closing in on an inch of snow...really hoping a Lake effect/enhanced band can sit over the northshore tonight. Snapped a shot about 30 min ago or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The advisory is odd. This is the best setup for all encompassing lake effect. I hate to say it yet again, but CLEs forecasts and warnings are generally irrelevant. CLE likes to nowcast LES, issuing warnings and advisories near the tail end of events. I remain cautiously optimistic for tonight. I'm waiting for the AFD to see what their reasoning is here. Some of the mets at CLE are fine, Lombardy and Abe come to mind as they will usually be on top of things with more detailed AFD's and less conservative with the headlines. Then there are like the other half or even more who I honestly don't think grew up paying attention for lake effect and never paid any attention to it until they ended up at CLE. Even if the lakeshore doesn't see 4", which is possible (although I do think downtown will see an accumulation of 1-4" tonight depending on if you can get a strong band over your head or not), I have a strong feeling someone just inland will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Coming down steady now, streets are quickly becoming snow covered. Radar showing the heavier returns still back around Dayton but heading our way. Beginning to get reports of light snow accumulations on the grassy areas in portions of Southeastern Indiana and portions of Southwest Ohio (Butler, Preble and Montgomery Counties), all the snow showers right now in those areas will reach Central Ohio over the next couple of hours. Visibility levels drop off significantly around the Dayton area, where visibilities have dropped to near a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Heres one from the front, already brushed the truck off earlier in the day. Also its snowing harder then you can see in that picture, cell phone camera doesnt pick it up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Winter weather advisory out for Geauga and inland Ashtabula counties. I'm still trying to figure out if an east-west band is going to just magically appear in Geauga county and screw the lake shore, not sure yet. Waiting for their AFD... 0.7" here thus far. Mainly light snow all day although there has been a gradual increase in intensity the last few hours. If a true E/W band forms... no area under it will be screwed. If its only snowing in Geauga that is bad sign in general -- lake enhanced vs. lake effect. I don't think that is going to be the case though. We'll probably see a heavy burst of snow when the front comes through. After that is is anyone's guess as to where a band sets up. Ideally I'd like to see the winds start out WSW'erly and come around to the WNW. It's been snowing consistently all day in Chagrin. Probably over an inch. Nice fat flakes with the heavier snow bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The advisory is odd. This is the best setup for all encompassing lake effect. I hate to say it yet again, but CLEs forecasts and warnings are generally irrelevant. CLE likes to nowcast LES, issuing warnings and advisories near the tail end of events. I remain cautiously optimistic for tonight. They really are irrelevant. Unless LES does not form at all tonight... which is unlikely, the CLE NWS homepage will look more colorful by the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If a true E/W band forms... no area under it will be screwed. If its only snowing in Geauga that is bad sign in general -- lake enhanced vs. lake effect. I don't think that is going to be the case though. We'll probably see a heavy burst of snow when the front comes through. After that is is anyone's guess as to where a band sets up. Ideally I'd like to see the winds start out WSW'erly and come around to the WNW. It's been snowing consistently all day in Chagrin. Probably over an inch. Nice fat flakes with the heavier snow bursts. I agree, I was poking fun at CLE's advisory placement. The front is coming through the west side right now. Winds do go WNW pretty quickly behind it, but the cold land compared to the "warmer" lake with winds just slightly onshore should force convergence right along the lake shore, meaning there is a decent chance at a primary band somewhere, especially with synoptic moisture helping to seed any lake effect most of the night and upstream lakes getting fairly active quickly behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sorry for all the pictures but snow just picked up in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I should be coming into a quick burst of moderate snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NorhternOhio, never apologize for pictures. I know I enjoy seeing pics. Hey Ive got green brown and white on my ground, nice to at least look at some snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Last one I promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its just nice to see some snow, this winter has been painful seeing areas just 1 hr east pick up big lake effect totals. Here on the near westside we usually get a couple decent lake effect events a year and im hoping we can churn out a few inches tonight. It kinda sucks when I pick up an inch or two only to see the primary snowbelt get clobbered with a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Radar is starting to light up. Seems accumulations across northern ohio are running near an inch so far. I still remain cautiously optimistic. Sad to say, but 4" would seem like a lot come morning. Its been almost 4 weeks since we've had appreciable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah Trent measured an inch or so about 30 min ago so im a little over that now. Radar is really lighting up around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree, I was poking fun at CLE's advisory placement. The front is coming through the west side right now. Winds do go WNW pretty quickly behind it, but the cold land compared to the "warmer" lake with winds just slightly onshore should force convergence right along the lake shore, meaning there is a decent chance at a primary band somewhere, especially with synoptic moisture helping to seed any lake effect most of the night and upstream lakes getting fairly active quickly behind the front. Your are on to something. Looking at bufkit output for the NAM and GFS. The flow comes around to 270 and oscillates between 290 until tomorrow. This is the most favorable direction for single band development. We'll see just how good these models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have measured about 1" of snow here in downtown Findlay this afternoon. There has been multiple bursts of mdt snow in the city today. It is great to see the snow return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 currently got the best snow going this season since the early/mid December debacle storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Radar is starting to light up. Seems accumulations across northern ohio are running near an inch so far. I still remain cautiously optimistic. Sad to say, but 4" would seem like a lot come morning. Its been almost 4 weeks since we've had appreciable snow. Good convergence along the front. Snow really picked up intensity. I'm headed to the corner alley this evening. Should be slow going on the roads. When it snows heavily is always seems to fall around the commute times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 currently got the best snow going this season since the early/mid December debacle storm. Nice. Good to see CMH get in on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Have to say...snowing quite nicely right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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