atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Thats a very rare spot to see a surface low for a major east coast cyclone to be positioned...especially if its moving due north....that storm is either going to be 100 miles east or 150 miles further west than that....based on the pattern in the North Atlantic, probably further east is more likely. Glad to hear that. Thanks for the great info. in the thread as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Good to see the storm on the models at this point. Don't sweat the track. Just for the heck of it, what are some of the precip totals looking like on the cold side of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Euro is usually warm and it's 180+ out it'll change. euro and GFS have a inaccuracy bias in the 96 to 300 hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 this storm sounds drunk...lol from Arkansas, to southeast KY, to southcentral KY, to OH to PA.... Trust me Buckeye, with the roads we have here in Pa, if i were that storm i would try anyway i could think of to avoid coming through Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 it redevolops once about to ohio, but not on the coast, its over dc ahhh, ok we have jumper. gotcha... yuck, those usually have a warm tongue with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 one thing is for sure, and the euro shows this at hr 240, wherever this storm goes, it pumps the -nao big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 it redevolops once about to ohio, but not on the coast, its over dc Which means I'd be leery of too quick of a transition to the coast, especially since its redeveloping it over DC, basically the model is conflicting on how quick to transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The 0c line after the storm almost gets to miami lol lebron james will now be bringing his talents to...phoenix az Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 well another run and another outcome...tune back tomorrow at 12z maybe minnesota or bermuda will get hit next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 wow...that 216 map has -12 down to Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It will be an interesting week for sure.. If you blend the GGEM/EURO/GFS together, you have a track similar to GGEM based on what I am reading. what causes the storm to redev over DC?? I don't recall ever seeing a situation like that before.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 well another run and another outcome...tune back tomorrow at 12z maybe minnesota or bermuda will get hit next exactly...btw, your commentary is awesome and much appreciated, even though i'm not a 'regional' guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 wow...that 216 map has -12 down to Florida Probably Gulf effect snow showers for Florida with the cold air over the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I now have better graphics and unfortunately I can see there is no 50/50 low or west based NAO on the 00z Euro...hence the inland track...the good news is that the Euro has been continually trying to dispose of the -NAO and or keep the block too far east on many of its runs in the past week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It will be an interesting week for sure.. If you blend the GGEM/EURO/GFS together, you have a track similar to GGEM based on what I am reading. what causes the storm to redev over DC?? I don't recall ever seeing a situation like that before.. Hot air possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 well another run and another outcome...tune back tomorrow at 12z maybe minnesota or bermuda will get hit next Thanks again for giving us a play by play along with Atown's maps. As you say, tomorrow is another model day. At least the consistency exists for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Hot air possibly? bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I now have better graphics and unfortunately I can see there is no 50/50 low or west based NAO on the 00z Euro...hence the inland track...the good news is that the Euro has been continually trying to dispose of the -NAO and or keep the block too far east on many of its runs in the past week or so. compared to the gfs which has the 50/50 low in place and a west based NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 I now have better graphics and unfortunately I can see there is no 50/50 low or west based NAO on the 00z Euro...hence the inland track...the good news is that the Euro has been continually trying to dispose of the -NAO and or keep the block too far east on many of its runs in the past week or so. yea, per euro its slightly neg nao and its east based nao . it actually kind of does have a 50/50 low albeit very weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The ensemble means are usually out about 3:30 AM which I will be around yet so I will post them at the time. I personally look for the means to be more to the east. This was somewhat a step towards the means from earlier but a deeper solution ...the means had colder air involved which this did at first as well ...potential certainly seems to be on the table for perhaps something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 00Z Euro is basically a repeat of March 8-9th 2008....one of very few storms to take a track that nearly ran along the Apps from MD-NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 compared to the gfs which has the 50/50 low in place and a west based NAO? Yeah, I think I know which 2 models I'd want on my side (GGEM/EURO) over the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 240 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 240 hr Torch inbound....again...IF the NAO goes positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Torch inbound....again...IF the NAO goes positive. pretty good -nao right there, not sure if its transient or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Conflicting results tonight. Three way battle we got going on here. The Euro was just a hair off, coupled with a not so positive setup, from showing a nice transitioning miller b to coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 ECM ensemble means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Just need it another 50-100 miles to the E, and a lot of us in the interior will be in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Euro wants to uber phase the storm making it go negative too early....ensembles look a little better though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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