Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Euro wants to uber phase the storm making it go negative too early....ensembles look a little better though Euro ensembles tend to be statistically further southeast at this time range, its an unfortunate bias they hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Great discussion form the HPC this morning... GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THRU MOST OF THEFORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST THRU NEXT FRIDAY DAY 5. MAJOR DIFFERENCESAND CONTINUITY CHANGES BEGIN TO SHOW LATER DAY 5 FRIDAY AND CARRYTHRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEGINNING DIFFERENCE ISTHE HANDLING OF A FAST MOVING PAC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE WESTCOAST IN THE LA NINA FLOW REGIME. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AND 06ZGFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF BUILD MORE EPAC RIDGING NWD ALONG THE WESTCOAST DAY6 SAT ALLOWING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRUTHE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGINGSHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OHVALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITHCONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREATSTORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TOD+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSEDATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEARWITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATIONAT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAYAWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREEDUPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTNRIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. 00Z GFS AND 06Z GFS WHILE DIGGING THIS SHORTWAVE AND CREATING APOTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS STORM ELIMINATE THE PHASINGPOTENTIAL OF ECMWF BUT STILL HAVE AN ANALOG CORRELATION TO THEABOVE MENTIONED NOV 1950 EPISODE. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT STILLYIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND ERN DEEPENING CYLOGENESIS ISTHE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS AND THIS WAS USED AS BASE FOR HPC MORNINGUPDATED PROGS. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That is a very interesting discussion for HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That is a very interesting discussion for HPC. No offense but why are you in this forum....arent you from Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 No offense but why are you in this forum....arent you from Michigan? Yes, but I saw the model discussion and figured I'd post on it, plus NYC/Philly are cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yes, but I saw the model discussion and figured I'd post on it, plus NYC/Philly are cool? No problem, just wondering if you were lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 No problem, just wondering if you were lost Nah its ok, I sometimes float through the other regions, especially when weather is benign in my area, trust me the dusting of lake effect I got last night has me doing cartwheels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Sounds pretty bad for most of us on the coastal plain..BUT..its 180+ hours away and the important thing is that the signal is there...some type of storm is on all the models tonight Even far away from the coastal plain is in trouble on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Even far away from the coastal plain is in trouble on this run. Yeah but like you or someone else said it is 6z run days away, the key is there is a storm on the maps for the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Interesting to see such a detailed discussion 200+ hrs out. The GFS has been rather consistent with this storm. I will be interested to see if this continues on the 12z run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It's interesting to see the euro back off on the cold a day earlier than the models were progging...we're entering "relaxed' chill status by Thursday PM this week per the Euro as opposed to Thursday being the coldest day of the upcoming...it wouldn't surprise if we're in the mid 40's on Friday along the coastal plain ahead of that clipper. I don't think either the GFS or EURO have a good handle on the mid month event...looks pretty impressive in either case but in the GFS' case we're post truncation with the wrapping up of the storm. The EURO is probably overphased but an impressive solution nonetheless. These overphases are less likely to verify than they are TO verify. I don't think either case will verify and we'll probably see something in the middle, which still wouldn't be good news for many on 95 unless you like a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The La Nina Blizzard of 96 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The La Nina Blizzard of 96 anyone? It has to snow to be a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Actually, we wouldn't need much of a change for this to be exactly like 96. The 500mb pattern is quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 sfc low cuts inland before we can even think about January Blizzard of 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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