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The Hudson Valley Thread

IrishRob17

By IrishRob17,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

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You know years ago there was a young guy that called himself Codman from around SWF (or so)....are any of you him with a new name? :) Or heard of him... I was just curious. He was on the BB's and IRC for a long time.

Wow, that goes a way back. Yeah, I remember that name but I don't honestly remember from which board, I've been on the various boards since late 1997. Not sure who his was but I haven't seen that name in a long time, that much I know.

hey all.. how's it going. I always forget that there's a hudson valley thread and I'm in the hudson valley... i guess.. kind of.. you gonna follow the GFS at the main thread this evening. I'd be happy to give a bit of a play by play in this thread for a change. I've got that sneak peak subscription thingie like Tombo so I can give you a bit of a heads up

I'm rarely able to stay up for the overnight runs but I still read through the threads in the morning if theres something of interest, like tese days. So even though i wasn't here last night I enjoyed reading through everyones comments just now, so THANKS! Happy Festivus as well!

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

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I've been perusing the 00z & 06Z GEFS ensembles...some interesting features of note. First both times have near the same amount of members showing a left of track low with 3 showing a hit and 6 a glance. There are now 2 members of the 06z set that are slower with the storm's track and onset. However overall the 06z ensemble/ensemble meant for 06z has a more ene track and appears to track over 120 miles or so south of the New Engalnd BM.

Right now I still think we will be dealing with 2 distinct cut-offs with this storm. The first will be where snow doesn't fall and where it does. The second will be within the snow area, that is very light to light accumulation and moderate or heavier amounts. Right now I think the potential for latter accumulation amounts is exist along an Ulster-S'rn Columbia and Duchess Counties east to the S'rn Berkshires and Litchfield county.

As for the HV north of Albany I am not too excited for much if any snow fall or snowfall accumulation.

I still think time IS on our side for a more widespread snowfall but we'll have to start seeing more ensembles and the ensemble mean shift north and west over the nxt 36 hours. Tomorrow will be telling IMO. If we start to see more of shift then north and west then its game on if we see either more of a shift south and east or the same current mix of data then prospects for what I posted above are more likely, perhaps even less than what I posted.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

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I've been perusing the 00z & 06Z GEFS ensembles...some interesting features of note. First both times have near the same amount of members showing a left of track low with 3 showing a hit and 6 a glance. There are now 2 members of the 06z set that are slower with the storm's track and onset. However overall the 06z ensemble/ensemble meant for 06z has a more ene track and appears to track over 120 miles or so south of the New Engalnd BM.

Right now I still think we will be dealing with 2 distinct cut-offs with this storm. The first will be where snow doesn't fall and where it does. The second will be within the snow area, that is very light to light accumulation and moderate or heavier amounts. Right now I think the potential for latter accumulation amounts is exist along an Ulster-S'rn Columbia and Duchess Counties east to the S'rn Berkshires and Litchfield county.

As for the HV north of Albany I am not too excited for much if any snow fall or snowfall accumulation.

I still think time IS on our side for a more widespread snowfall but we'll have to start seeing more ensembles and the ensemble mean shift north and west over the nxt 36 hours. Tomorrow will be telling IMO. If we start to see more of shift then north and west then its game on if we see either more of a shift south and east or the same current mix of data then prospects for what I posted above are more likely, perhaps even less than what I posted.

Thank you for dropping by with this information. In the areas that you mentioned bolded above would that be a stripe of heavier snow or is it from those areas south and east would see heavier snow. Sorry for the kinda IMBY question.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

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Thank you for dropping by with this information. In the areas that you mentioned bolded above would that be a stripe of heavier snow or is it from those areas south and east would see heavier snow. Sorry for the kinda IMBY question.

No problem. Right now the bolded area that you highlighted IMO stands the best chance for moderate to heavy snow fall (at this time). All this said I still have not and won't come out with any firm numbers this early; probably won't see anything from me until late Saturday at the earliest. We (I) just need to see some more swing W by N in the ensembles over time.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

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No problem. Right now the bolded area that you highlighted IMO stands the best chance for moderate to heavy snow fall (at this time). All this said I still have not and won't come out with any firm numbers this early; probably won't see anything from me until late Saturday at the earliest. We (I) just need to see some more swing W by N in the ensembles over time.

Thanks. Completely understand the numbers thing as it's way too early for that sort of stuff.

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Radders

Radders

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So......What are you folks all thinking with regard to the latest storm threat? High risk, high reward setups like this coastal storm threat make me nervous these days, I just can't get the winter of 2009-2010 out of my head, with all the near misses to our south. Seems with this level of historic blocking in place, it just feels like we might get fringed while those to the south (or east) cash in. The next two days of model consensus building are going to be huge, but at this point, I am not ready to get too emotionally involved yet.. The h5 set up really is beautiful though.. The potential is there for sure.

axesmiley.pngaxesmiley.pngaxesmiley.pngaxesmiley.png

But there is still time for it to trend west!!

Rant over, but seriously, I sort of expected this would happen, so didn't get too excited... I will still keep an eye on it though, you never know what might happen next... In the long term, I would not mind seeing this pattern changing and either seeing some miller b's or some sw flow events where we get some 3-6 or 4-8 type storms.. Fed up with these coastal threats.. I want to leverage my latitude to get in on some of the white stuff!!!

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TJay

TJay

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Nice hit on the 12z GFS for the valley rockland then east of the river do very well. Mid western valley does slightly less with a phase just in time to track it west. 12Z NAM does not phase and is farther east. With the GFS standing alone with the hit atm, some drama for the holidays. . :snowman:

Upton's morning disco before the 12Z GFS

TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXACTLY HOW FAR

WEST IS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW...FOR NOW HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE

POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA (LIKELY FAR EAST)...BUT EVEN THE GFS

BARELY HAS MEASURABLE QPF INTO ORANGE COUNTY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER

OFF TO SHSN/FLURRIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND USED...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A HIGH

END CHANCE TO A LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE SNOW FALL

EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER

CENTRAL/EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF

WARNING LEVEL SNOWS OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND - NOT SAYING

WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ARE NOT POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...JUST THAT THE

BEST CHANCE FOR THEM IS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IN ORDER

TO GET WARNING LEVEL SNOWS WEST OF THE HUDSON...IT WOULD TAKE A

SHIFT IN TRACK ABOUT 100 MILES TO THE WEST...THIS IN UNLIKELY BUT

STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IT ALSO POSSIBLE (AND

MORE LIKELY THAN A 100 MILE WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK) THAT THE

STORM COULD TRACK FURTHER EAST THAN FORECAST...BRINGING AT MOST

ADVISORY SNOWS TO EASTERN AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

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Nice hit on the 12z GFS for the valley rockland then east of the river do very well. Mid western valley does slightly less with a phase just in time to track it west. 12Z NAM does not phase and is farther east. With the GFS standing alone with the hit atm, some drama for the holidays. . :snowman:

Did you see this?

From BOX AFD:

"WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. "

Not sure yet how that affects this run if at all, it's still up for debate. Maybe we'll have a better idea after seeing the euro.

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TJay

TJay

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Did you see this?

From BOX AFD:

"WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. "

Not sure yet how that affects this run if at all, it's still up for debate. Maybe we'll have a better idea after seeing the euro.

HPC is disregarding the 12Z GFS solution :arrowhead::whistle:

Said the errors effect GFS, NAM and Euro 12Z runs now we wait again

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

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Check out the 18Z NAM, phases and west but not quite west enough for NYC.

Are you saying that the trend is our friend? Hey, I hope it works out but I also know that in 30 minutes my brother-in-law arrives with the Sam Adams with the rest of the family to follow shortly there after so i won't be able to track much tonight.

Merry Christmas to all my weather board buddies! :snowman::drunk::snowman:

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TJay

TJay

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Are you saying that the trend is our friend? Hey, I hope it works out but I also know that in 30 minutes my brother-in-law arrives with the Sam Adams with the rest of the family to follow shortly there after so i won't be able to track much tonight.

Merry Christmas to all my weather board buddies! :snowman::drunk::snowman:

Merry Christmas Rob and everyone else!! :santa:

The 18Z GFS is a huge hit for the low and mid valley. I honestly don't know what to make of this soap opera of models fliping away, HPC tossing out 12Z GFS because of data errors but not tossing the 12Z NAM that had the same data ingested and now a dream hit on the 18Z GFS.

It is truely stange and I feel the same way I did last Feb when we were tracking the snowcane when the models started showing the fully bombed out super storm doing a loop tour of NYC, CT, HV, NEPA, NJ.

I don't know what to make of this. :popcorn:

OT : I was in Fridays last night and they had a Blue Moon Draft special. It was served with a slice of orange. the beer was unfiltered, it was fantastic. Anyone have a guess as to what Blue Moon version it might have been?

:drunk:

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TJay

TJay

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Blue Moon is made by Coors. I was surprised to get that fact. I prefer the lime version of Blue Moon,Rising Moon!! It's out in the spring as a seasonal beer.

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO EVERYONE!!!!!!!

It was Belgian White Ale. Wow coors? Thats a shocker given their tasteless, watery mainstream beers :bike:

I think I'll snek a peek at tonights 12Z runs if I get a chance

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