Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

[HurricaneJosh]

I doubt the entire area that SGF has painted as EF5 received EF5 damage. It's impossible to say. I didn't think we'd ever have a tornado on the EF-scale where the MIC at the office in whose CWA it hit would estimate a peak wind of 250 MPH. Think about what kind of damage would have to be done for that estimate and think about the EF-scale. Each ranking of the EF-scale goes by roughly 25-35 MPH gradations.

EF0: 65-85 MPH

EF1: 86-110 MPH

EF2: 111-135 MPH

EF3: 136-165 MPH

EF4: 166-200 MPH

EF5: >200 MPH

Essentially, if we still had a "6" rating for a tornado, following that pattern (and even incorporating the fact that the ranges increase as you go up), you'd likely expect this tornado to breach the minimum wind speed for that. Now, how you would describe something as a "6" would beyond my paygrade. But I'm hoping this puts the level of damage that is being described from SGF into a proper historical perspective. When you legitimately estimate the max winds to be 50 MPH into EF5, you're essentially trying to describe this as being the strongest tornado at least ever surveyed.

Thanks, Tony.

Yeah, I've been wondering about the 250 mph estimate. If I read correctly, they described the speed as "instantaneous" or something like that, which lead me to believe that the 3-sec value (upon which the EF scale is based) would be lower-- right?

I am having a hard time getting my head around the idea of a tornado with winds 25% stronger than Greensburg and Parkersburg. I mean, that doesn't even make sense to me. Like you, I am kind of shocked to hear a figure like that even mentioned in the "Enhanced Fujita Era". It looks like this really might be a contender for strongest surveyed tornado. Just wow.

Just bizarre.

[tornadotony]

Thanks, Tony.

Yeah, I've been wondering about the 250 mph estimate. If I read correctly, they described the speed as "instantaneous" or something like that, which lead me to believe that the 3-sec value (upon which the EF scale is based) would be lower-- right?

I am having a hard time getting my head around the idea of a tornado with winds 25% stronger than Greensburg and Parkersburg. I mean, that doesn't even make sense to me. Like you, I am kind of shocked in the "Enhanced Fujita Ear" to hear a figure like that even mentioned. It looks like it really might be a contender for strongest surveyed tornado. Just wow.

Just bizarre.

My take is that instantaneous is probably being used synonymously with 3-sec gust. It seems bizarre. But to me it makes sense just looking at the death toll. Yeah, it was rain-wrapped, but so was the Moore tornado largely when it was in Moore. Greensburg was at night. Parkersburg was largely rain-wrapped. The Topeka tornado in 1966 wrapped itself in rain as it crossed the city. Rain-wrapping alone cannot possibly explain 142 fatalities.

[HurricaneJosh]

My take is that instantaneous is probably being used synonymously with 3-sec gust. It seems bizarre. But to me it makes sense just looking at the death toll. Yeah, it was rain-wrapped, but so was the Moore tornado largely when it was in Moore. Greensburg was at night. Parkersburg was largely rain-wrapped. The Topeka tornado in 1966 wrapped itself in rain as it crossed the city. Rain-wrapping alone cannot possibly explain 142 fatalities.

Yeah, the death toll is bizarre in light of these other events-- especially Topeka, which rammed through downtown and killed less than 20 people!

Curiouser and curiouser, this one.

[sojitodd]

Everyone--

Check out this map: http://maps.google.c...219727&t=p&z=12

Uncheck all of the boxes except F5. Then zoom in real close and look at how many houses and buildings this presumed EF5 area encompasses.

I know..it is hard to believe-the ef5 is nearly 3 blocks wide near the high school-you very rarely see ef4 damage that wide-that is nearly as wide as the f4 damage in the Wichita Falls map.

My take is that instantaneous is probably being used synonymously with 3-sec gust. It seems bizarre. But to me it makes sense just looking at the death toll. Yeah, it was rain-wrapped, but so was the Moore tornado largely when it was in Moore. Greensburg was at night. Parkersburg was largely rain-wrapped. The Topeka tornado in 1966 wrapped itself in rain as it crossed the city. Rain-wrapping alone cannot possibly explain 142 fatalities.

Good point about the death toll. Not to be morbid, but I wonder how a plot of known or estimated fatality locations would correspond to that map?

I hope this gets 'straightened out' so to say regarding the ef5 'zone' and the maximum 3 second gust/wind. This is all going to be part of the historical record for this extreme tornado-they should do the best they can to get it right. This tornado is going to be the defining event as far as tornadoes go it seems.

[blackjack123]

I would probably would say the lower value of 225mph would probably seem like the more appropriate value. That one tech building JoMo showed in damage photos was clearly at least EF4(180mph) and probably EF5(200-220mph). These more recent tornadoes such as the one in Hackleburg may have winds around 220mph, as well as the Smithville and Philadelphia tornadoes. The Parkersburg tornado if you used the upper bound on a well-built home that was swept away that would be 220mph. Greensburg had EF5 damage to about six victorian homes that were swept away as well as the brick buildings being crushed into rubble I would estimate around 210-220mph. Like I said winds are winds and its only an estimate in association to the damage produced.

[HurricaneJosh]

I would probably would say the lower value of 225mph would probably seem like the more appropriate value. That one tech building JoMo showed in damage photos was clearly at least EF4(180mph) and probably EF5(200-220mph). These more recent tornadoes such as the one in Hackleburg may have winds around 220mph, as well as the Smithville and Philadelphia tornadoes. The Parkersburg tornado if you used the upper bound on a well-built home that was swept away that would be 220mph. Greensburg had EF5 damage to about six victorian homes that were swept away as well as the brick buildings being crushed into rubble I would estimate around 210-220mph. Like I said winds are winds and its only an estimate in association to the damage produced.

The official estimated max winds in Greensburg and Parkersburg-New Hartford were 205 mph. Where did you get those higher values?

I agree with you-- that 225 mph seems like a more reality-based value for Joplin, simply because the higher value (250 mph) would be a whopping 25% higher than other EF5s-- something which is hard to believe.

P.S. Good point-- that these are simply estimates. Lord knows how accurate they really are. I'm sure there's a wide error range when talking winds this high.

[JoMo]

I see JoMo lurking. JoMo, were you in one of the colored areas? If so, which one?

EF-1, however I'd say it was more like EF-0.

I don't think it's a continuous EF-5 damage path, but there are sporadic EF-5 damages in that area. There will be a home still standing out in the middle of a bunch of homes that are flattened.

I was looking for a video I saw the other day where the guy drives down the EF-5 area in the residential area by the high school. I'll probably find that in a little bit.

I found this one which has EF-4, EF-5 damage. I did not listen to this video with sound so I don't know what was said.

This is taken on 26th street around Wall, Joplin, Pearl, heading west. The first building you see is Irving Elementary. A brick building that was built in 1927. After that you see a power substation which has been rebuilt already by the electric company. At around 20 seconds you see the remains of another brick building. I believe this was poorly constructed and also ancient though. This is probably really close to the EF-5 on the map. At around 27 seconds there's another brick building that belong to St. Mary's church which you can see in the back, it's a much newer construction and it was destroyed. Around 32 seconds after the dump trucks, you can see the remains of the Greenbriar nursing home (it's leveled). From there, there are numerous businesses that are destroyed and duplex that I can't seem to find on the video.

[AtticaFanatica]

EF scale ratings have error bars large enough, let alone any actual wind value estimates. I would have little to no confidence in the validity of a comparison between two tornadoes based on the wind estimates that result from a damage-based tornado survey.

[Hoosier]

The official estimated max winds in Greensburg and Parkersburg-New Hartford were 205 mph. Where did you get those higher values?

I agree with you-- that 225 mph seems like a more reality-based value for Joplin, simply because the higher value (250 mph) would be a whopping 25% higher than other EF5s-- something which is hard to believe.

P.S. Good point-- that these are simply estimates. Lord knows how accurate they really are. I'm sure there's a wide error range when talking winds this high.

I think we have to be careful to not box ourselves in with what we think we know about wind speeds.

[JoMo]

This was the video I posted the other day. I'm pretty sure this entire area is in the EF-5 damage swath. The #'s on the building are 2201 Grand Ave. He hangs a right on Missouri Ave. These were all well built wood structures that were probably 30+ years old. There are a couple of the house frames left standing but some were leveled completely.

[HurricaneJosh]

EF-1, however I'd say it was more like EF-0.

I don't think it's a continuous EF-5 damage path, but there are sporadic EF-5 damages in that area. There will be a home still standing out in the middle of a bunch of homes that are flattened.

That makes more sense.

So you were in the yellow area? Wow-- awful close, dude.

EF scale ratings have error bars large enough, let alone any actual wind value estimates. I would have little to no confidence in the validity of a comparison between two tornadoes based on the wind estimates that result from a damage-based tornado survey.

I think you're right, but how else can we compare historic events? Or are you saying we can't?

I think we have to be careful to not box ourselves in with what we think we know about wind speeds.

Agreed.

But the trend since the early 1970s has been to lower estimates down from the previous nuttiness-- so an estimate of 250 mph sounds weird.

P.S. When I was in grade school-- in the late 1970s-- textbooks still said that winds in tornadoes reached 400-600 mph. I kid you not.

[AtticaFanatica]

I think you're right, but how else can we compare historic events? Or are you saying we can't?

Not with an accuracy level I'd feel comfortable with, no.

[CooL]

This was the video I posted the other day. I'm pretty sure this entire area is in the EF-5 damage swath. The #'s on the building are 2201 Grand Ave. He hangs a right on Missouri Ave. These were all well built wood structures that were probably 30+ years old. There are a couple of the house frames left standing but some were leveled completely.

the end of that video is overwhelmingly disturbing..hard to believe anyone survived in that area honestly.

[MJW155]

P.S. When I was in grade school-- in the late 1970s-- textbooks still said that winds in tornadoes reached 400-600 mph. I kid you not.

It was like that in the early 80's too. I remember giving a book report in 2nd grade about tornadoes. I still remember telling the class winds were over 500 mph. LOL. It was probably 1982 or 1983.

[blackjack123]

The official estimated max winds in Greensburg and Parkersburg-New Hartford were 205 mph. Where did you get those higher values?

I agree with you-- that 225 mph seems like a more reality-based value for Joplin, simply because the higher value (250 mph) would be a whopping 25% higher than other EF5s-- something which is hard to believe.

P.S. Good point-- that these are simply estimates. Lord knows how accurate they really are. I'm sure there's a wide error range when talking winds this high.

It is just my personal guess on the Greensburg and Parkersburg/New Hartford tornadoes as well as the other EF5's in April. I am far from being expert it is just my personal opinion.

[sojitodd]

That makes more sense.

So you were in the yellow area? Wow-- awful close, dude.

I think you're right, but how else can we compare historic events? Or are you saying we can't?

Agreed.

But the trend since the early 1970s has been to lower estimates down from the previous nuttiness-- so an estimate of 250 mph sounds weird.

P.S. When I was in grade school-- in the late 1970s-- textbooks still said that winds in tornadoes reached 400-600 mph. I kid you not.

BTW, the problem with the colors not matching is when they are overlayed-you are blending colors so they change-if you look at the colors individually(by ef#) they match the legend. Why I did not grasp that fact immediately, I don't know.

*edit..nevermind, I see where Tornadytony already posted it. I missed that part.

[snowNH]

Right they have to check the building construction too. That's what led to the controversy over the Worcester tornado in 1953 (I started a thread on it in the NE subforum). If the building codes are in question, then what looks like F5 damage might not necessarily be. Healthy trees being snapped off fairly relatively low on the trunk tends to be a good indicator too.

I'm in engineering and for New England we design for 90 MPH winds in MASS, VT, AND NH( EXCEPT MOUNTIAINS)..... ORH is in the 90 MPH range in which engineers design for.

[JoMo]

the end of that video is overwhelmingly disturbing..hard to believe anyone survived in that area honestly.

There's still 2 people missing in that area, as well as some deaths, the ones missing may actually be from one of the houses in one of the before/after pictures I've made below even :-\

I'm fairly certain these are the right houses as I've matched them up based on driveway location and the concrete steps in the first picture. The before are from Google a few years ago, and the after were taken from that video I linked.

This was just down the street from that one.

[HurricaneJosh]

Wow. That is just crazy. I can see how these places become unrecognizable to you. Without even the trees, there are just about zero visual cues to help you make the connection.

I noticed on the contour map-- the one we were discussing so vigorously this morning-- that the tornado passed just S of downtown and might have grazed it. Did the downtown area have any damage from inflow winds or anything?

[JoMo]

Wow. That is just crazy. I can see how these places become unrecognizable to you. Without even the trees, there are just about zero visual cues to help you make the connection.

I noticed on the contour map-- the one we were discussing so vigorously this morning-- that the tornado passed just S of downtown and might have grazed it. Did the downtown area have any damage from inflow winds or anything?

I don't believe so. The inflow damage is probably marked in the EF-1 area, there may be a bit more surrounding that area but it's probably very minor. They probably received debris falling.

[HurricaneJosh]

I don't believe so. The inflow damage is probably marked in the EF-1 area, there may be a bit more surrounding that area but it's probably very minor. They probably received debris falling.

Ah, OK. That makes sense. Thanks.

So you were in the yellow zone but you feel like you had EF0? Even that, though. D*mn. It's just nuts how close it passed to you-- maybe the strongest tornado in modern U.S. history. You must be having serious gratitude, dude.

[HurricaneJosh]

Well, JoMo can look at it philosophically. He's a weather dude and he experienced firsthand what I'm convinced is one of the most important American weather events of then past century. I really think this is up there historically. It's a truly chart-smashing sort of event. This will be a benchmark event that's referred to and compared to in countless discussions and media stories 50 and 100 years from now.

[JoMo]

Ah, OK. That makes sense. Thanks.

So you were in the yellow zone but you feel like you had EF0? Even that, though. D*mn. It's just nuts how close it passed to you-- maybe the strongest tornado in modern U.S. history. You must be having serious gratitude, dude.

Actually, it's kind of mixed emotions. I'm glad it wasn't 3 blocks closer, but at the same time, I feel bad for those involved. Hearing all the stories is incredibly saddening as is seeing the destruction of places you have known all your life. It's amazing to see the power of mother nature but it's extremely sad to consider that some people lost all they had, and some people lost loved ones. The sheer terror that people must have experienced as they heard windows breaking, wood splintering, and having their houses collapse around them.The stories are just terrible to hear. There are children that they can't identify in other hospitals around the area. There was a 4 year old whose parents were killed and they didn't know who she was. The story of an elderly lady found dead in her closet still clutching her bible. I'm sure you heard it was graduation night for Joplin High Schoolers and many were just starting their lives. I'm pretty sure everyone has heard of Will Norton. The recent graduate was on his way home with his dad and was sucked or thrown out the sunroof of his dad's car, he was found in a pond.

I also just saw the story of a mother that was killed when she was going to pick up pizza for her son's graduation party. They had found her car which had been damaged, the roof and seat headrest were missing, the seat belt was still buckled and there was a shoe on the dashboard. They didn't find their mom in the car, but they got a call last night that said she had been found.

I mean, could you imagine that? Could you imagine being so happy because you just graduated and then having that all ripped away in a couple of minutes? I don't think I can.... I can't really imagine that.

[HurricaneJosh]

Actually, it's kind of mixed emotions. I'm glad it wasn't 3 blocks closer, but at the same time, I feel bad for those involved. Hearing all the stories is incredibly saddening as is seeing the destruction of places you have known all your life. It's amazing to see the power of mother nature but it's extremely sad to consider that some people lost all they had, and some people lost loved ones. The sheer terror that people must have experienced as they heard windows breaking, wood splintering, and having their houses collapse around them.The stories are just terrible to hear. There are children that they can't identify in other hospitals around the area. There was a 4 year old whose parents were killed and they didn't know who she was. The story of an elderly lady found dead in her closet still clutching her bible. I'm sure you heard it was graduation night for Joplin High Schoolers and many were just starting their lives. I'm pretty sure everyone has heard of Will Norton. The recent graduate was on his way home with his dad and was sucked or thrown out the sunroof of his dad's car, he was found in a pond.

I also just saw the story of a mother that was killed when she was going to pick up pizza for her son's graduation party. They had found her car which had been damaged, the roof and seat headrest were missing, the seat belt was still buckled and there was a shoe on the dashboard. They didn't find their mom in the car, but they got a call last night that said she had been found.

I mean, could you imagine that? Could you imagine being so happy because you just graduated and then having that all ripped away in a couple of minutes? I don't think I can.... I can't really imagine that.

No. No, I can't, honestly. I also can't imagine a huge neighborhood reduced to rubble in two minutes. It's all very surreal.

This is the truly ugly side of this thing which so fascinates all of us here. These are really upsetting stories-- I almost wish I didn't read them.

You might find that you're having "survivor's guilt", which sometimes happens to people after catastrophes like this. It's completely normal, but if you find that you're having trouble with it, you can perhaps talk to someone. There's nothing wrong with that.

[snowNH]

Actually, it's kind of mixed emotions. I'm glad it wasn't 3 blocks closer, but at the same time, I feel bad for those involved. Hearing all the stories is incredibly saddening as is seeing the destruction of places you have known all your life. It's amazing to see the power of mother nature but it's extremely sad to consider that some people lost all they had, and some people lost loved ones. The sheer terror that people must have experienced as they heard windows breaking, wood splintering, and having their houses collapse around them.The stories are just terrible to hear. There are children that they can't identify in other hospitals around the area. There was a 4 year old whose parents were killed and they didn't know who she was. The story of an elderly lady found dead in her closet still clutching her bible. I'm sure you heard it was graduation night for Joplin High Schoolers and many were just starting their lives. I'm pretty sure everyone has heard of Will Norton. The recent graduate was on his way home with his dad and was sucked or thrown out the sunroof of his dad's car, he was found in a pond.

I also just saw the story of a mother that was killed when she was going to pick up pizza for her son's graduation party. They had found her car which had been damaged, the roof and seat headrest were missing, the seat belt was still buckled and there was a shoe on the dashboard. They didn't find their mom in the car, but they got a call last night that said she had been found.

I mean, could you imagine that? Could you imagine being so happy because you just graduated and then having that all ripped away in a couple of minutes? I don't think I can.... I can't really imagine that.

I almost wish all humans were weather freaks like us. Several lives could have been saved if they really knew what was going on. What supercells look like. That know how to read a radar. They mentioned it on TV, great. People arent watching tv all day.

I think they should make it mandatory that people build storm shelters in all towns that are regularly affected. Or if you don't have one. You better start building one.

[winterymix]

You might find that you're having "survivor's guilt", which sometimes happens to people after catastrophes like this. It's completely normal, but if you find that you're having trouble with it, you can perhaps talk to someone. There's nothing wrong with that.

Absolutely. For the 1100 +/- people injured or perished it was little more than innocently being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

This is horribly quick and nearly random catastrophe.

[Hoosier]

Actually, it's kind of mixed emotions. I'm glad it wasn't 3 blocks closer, but at the same time, I feel bad for those involved. Hearing all the stories is incredibly saddening as is seeing the destruction of places you have known all your life. It's amazing to see the power of mother nature but it's extremely sad to consider that some people lost all they had, and some people lost loved ones. The sheer terror that people must have experienced as they heard windows breaking, wood splintering, and having their houses collapse around them.The stories are just terrible to hear. There are children that they can't identify in other hospitals around the area. There was a 4 year old whose parents were killed and they didn't know who she was. The story of an elderly lady found dead in her closet still clutching her bible. I'm sure you heard it was graduation night for Joplin High Schoolers and many were just starting their lives. I'm pretty sure everyone has heard of Will Norton. The recent graduate was on his way home with his dad and was sucked or thrown out the sunroof of his dad's car, he was found in a pond.

I also just saw the story of a mother that was killed when she was going to pick up pizza for her son's graduation party. They had found her car which had been damaged, the roof and seat headrest were missing, the seat belt was still buckled and there was a shoe on the dashboard. They didn't find their mom in the car, but they got a call last night that said she had been found.

I mean, could you imagine that? Could you imagine being so happy because you just graduated and then having that all ripped away in a couple of minutes? I don't think I can.... I can't really imagine that.

That is really sad. It's one thing when it's somewhere else but when it's your town that experiences such destruction and loss of life...I can't imagine. I'm sure it will be a long time before there is any sense of normalcy, and obviously things will never be the same for many. There's not much to feel good about but you can feel proud about how you come back.

[WxFreak11]

JoMo,

I agree with Josh that this is going to be the weather event of the century where most other catastrophes will be measured or compared with. It is still, after a week, still so distubing to see the devastation or worse to hear the horrible details JoMo has told us about the deaths of these people. Even though we love to experience or learn from weather disasters I think for me, it has made me think twice about why I am so fascinated with the power of Mother Nature and the desire to experience some of these events. I don't think I feel the same way anymore. This event is all too devastating and really an unimaginable disaster to have actually lived through. I know there will be more disasters in the future, but the human toll this event has inflicted upon so many people has changed the way I think. Oh I will still be fascinated but not so interested in actually experiencing them anymore. This event was really Hell on Earth for these people. My prayers are with you all in Joplin.

[Master of Disaster]

I saw a post today that they are doing the 5th and final sweep. Where the heck are these 100 missing people?

[JoMo]

I saw a post today that they are doing the 5th and final sweep. Where the heck are these 100 missing people?

They are doing 6 sweeps. The number of missing is down to 29 or so.

http://dps.mo.gov/news/template.asp?ID=N01110015