18z Models 12/1/10

[Kmlwx]

The trends were obviously very good on this run.

Now that being said, I'm afraid that we're just in the wrong spot. The initial clipper impulse might give 3-6" snows to DC proper, but then by the time the ULL captures it and hooks it back, it'll be too late for us, and SNE might cash in.

Anyone else feel the same way?

3-6?! You got Yoda excited in our subforum dude.

[Dsnowx53]

3-6?! You got Yoda excited in our subforum dude.

lol, well I think given the recent trends, it's certainly a possibility. The shortwave continues to trend stronger each run.

[lester]

3-6?! You got Yoda excited in our subforum dude.

*bounces around*

Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk

[Kmlwx]

lol, well I think given the recent trends, it's certainly a possibility. The shortwave continues to trend stronger each run.

Don't tease us DC folks

I can't argue with you there, though. The trends are definitely looking good. Hopefully we won't see a situation where it all reverses or halts on 00z.

[tombo82685]

18z dgex

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html

[gkrangers]

Road trip to DC?

[NJwinter23]

Doug and John are right on with this setup. It can really only trend better for the mid-Atlantic at this stage of the game in terms of the Pacific pieces being realized/getting sampled better. That means a more robust shortwave with our clipper (which the models are trending towards), and better ridging along the west coast which kind of goes hand in hand with the first part in allowing the wave to amplify more.

For us, we need to start seeing big shifts in the cold ULL on top of us and to our northeast in that timeframe. It seems at this juncture we are quickly running out of time for that.

[NinjaWarrior2]

[tombo82685]

Doug and John are right on with this setup. It can really only trend better for the mid-Atlantic at this stage of the game in terms of the Pacific pieces being realized/getting sampled better. That means a more robust shortwave with our clipper (which the models are trending towards), and better ridging along the west coast which kind of goes hand in hand with the first part in allowing the wave to amplify more.

For us, we need to start seeing big shifts in the cold ULL on top of us and to our northeast in that timeframe. It seems at this juncture we are quickly running out of time for that.

the 18z, made a little jump towards making the vortex not as strong. Wouldn't a stornger shortwave though also trend further north to?

[tombo82685]

here are the 18z indiv ens runs

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

[SnoSki14]

I'm not sure how much better it will trend because it's not too far out there for any huge changes to occur. I mean we're only talking about 3-3 1/2 days or so. It's a shame because if the Euro is correct, this will be our only shot at some snow. The Euro is already showing a warm up in the future and I bet the gfs will follow.

[tombo82685]

I'm not sure how much better it will trend because it's not too far out there for any huge changes to occur. I mean we're only talking about 3-3 1/2 days or so. It's a shame because if the Euro is correct, this will be our only shot at some snow. The Euro is already showing a warm up in the future and I bet the gfs will follow.

0z was very cold, i wouldnt base that off one run of the euro, esp in the long range.

[SnoSki14]

It makes sense why it would warm up, the blocking disappears. It's pretty much the only thing that could save us from a disastrous winter, but look how the NAO is expected to jump to positive.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

[tombo82685]

It makes sense why it would warm up, the blocking disappears. It's pretty much the only thing that could save us from a disastrous winter, but look how the NAO is expected to jump to positive.

http://www.cpc.noaa....index_ensm.html

while i do agree we will get into a warm pattern, i just dont think so yet. The euro ens dont say a warm pattern at all

[Kmlwx]

It makes sense why it would warm up, the blocking disappears. It's pretty much the only thing that could save us from a disastrous winter, but look how the NAO is expected to jump to positive.

http://www.cpc.noaa....index_ensm.html

Never trust long range modeling if it's been jumping around a fair amount. Plus it's a La Nina which some have said is a bit tougher on the numerical weather prediction.

[tombo82685]

granted this is the 384 hour gfs, but a lot of the ens are building back the nao big time

[Riptide]

granted this is the 384 hour gfs, but a lot of the ens are building back the nao big time

This makes sense considering the NAO has been consistently negative with intermittent neutral+ spikes. No reason for this pattern to discontinue.

[CooL]

check this out -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_078.shtml <-------- this is the GFS at hr 78 last year before 12/19. Its almost exactly what it has now lol

[tombo82685]

lol

[earthlight]

check this out -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_078.shtml <-------- this is the GFS at hr 78 last year before 12/19. Its almost exactly what it has now lol

Except look how much room there is for the trough to amplify in that synoptic setup. Doesn't exist here.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_054.shtml

[eduggs]

check this out -- http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_078.shtml <-------- this is the GFS at hr 78 last year before 12/19. Its almost exactly what it has now lol

Similar sure, especially with the surface features. But the downstream trof axis is much further north in that depiction, allowing significantly more room for a stronger modeled s/w to raise heights along and up the coast.

[earthlight]

Similar sure, especially with the surface features. But the downstream trof axis is much further north in that depiction, allowing significantly more room for a stronger modeled s/w to raise heights along and up the coast.

Precisely. Also, check out the 200mb jet streak. We have strong northwest upper level winds this time owing to the vortex/ULL being further south. It's just way too tight and the wavelengths don't really support anything getting into our latitude unless we see some significant changes.

[CooL]

Except look how much room there is for the trough to amplify in that synoptic setup. Doesn't exist here.

http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_054.shtml

yeah the upper level setup was wayy more favorable for that storm to become a blockbuster, but when i looked back, the surface was almost exactly the same as what it had today at 18z lol

[Chris L]

check this out -- http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_078.shtml <-------- this is the GFS at hr 78 last year before 12/19. Its almost exactly what it has now lol

The 500 mb flow is much better, more speration....