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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2010


JoMo

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A farther NW ejection of this first system (which won't bring much if any at all in accumulations) will probably cause the second system to be farther NW and the 'screw line' to be farther NW.

Yeah thats already entered my mind too. Gotta think it will have some impact on the northern branch energy. Models already looking a bit wrong.

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Well, cloud tops are warming over NE OK. the precip is starting to fall apart to the south of you and the system is weakening and moving away. I think you may see a dusting in the Tulsa area with this first system if you are lucky. NW Arkansas may see a little more depending on how quickly the low weakens.

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His numbers are looking more realistic than NWS S'field.

True, but his numbers have come up some... which I view as a good sign.

While it is true the 18z model runs aren't as great as we would like to have them, I am not giving up on the 2-4" thinking for this area.

Edit... NWS TSA has snowfall report of 1" 1 mile south of Ft. Smith.

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LOL, I just try not to ride the model waves. They are very useful tools, but you can't look at each run as an island. Watching trends is crucial... and how each model is sampling/handling the system. I believe that the trend is slightly north... but not significant enough to really cause too much alarm. I think the bigger trend seems to be less moisture. I would be more concerned if I was up in the KC area, where it appears totals may be less than originally forecasted if the models pan out.

And believe me... I can be quite negative on systems... just not this one. :)

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True, but his numbers have come up some... which I view as a good sign.

While it is true the 18z model runs aren't as great as we would like to have them, I am not giving up on the 2-4" thinking for this area.

Edit... NWS TSA has snowfall report of 1" 1 mile south of Ft. Smith.

I think I'll take the 18z run, but not for this system.

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The 2nd storm is going to come out in two pieces, one tomorrow morning and one tomorrow afternoon/evening. The one in the afternoon/evening has a little more working for it and that's when the best snowfall for our area should occur. A weak low pressure tries to form over NW Arkansas. There's a little more RH in the snow growth layer and the coldest upper level air should be arriving as well. The one negative is the 850 tries to close off near KC at this time.

NAM_221_2011010918_F30_CREF_SURFACE.png

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