ORH_wxman Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Pretty good, I think. A lot better than I hoped. Back to good ol' New England on Saturday! This winter is going to be legendary boys Just don't forecast a torch in January this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Pretty good, I think. A lot better than I hoped. Back to good ol' New England on Saturday! This winter is going to be legendary boys Although I think I'll edge you out on ENSO predictions, we both have similar thoughts about the winter. -QBO/low solar/weak ENSO/-PDO...sign of cold/snowy times in North America. We also should have a bit more cold air to work with given that global SSTs are still below average despite the decay of La Niña in springtime, indicating that the globe is cooler than it has been in recent times. The only thing I hope is that the PV doesn't get too strong with the combination of a two-year cold ENSO event and the solar minimum; a colder than normal PV didn't stop us in 10-11 because we had such a monster -NAO block, but it could become an issue since stratospheric temperatures have been running abnormally cold since last winter. The difference between a successful Niña winter like 10-11 and a crap one like 05-06 can sometimes hinge on very small variations in the interaction between the PV and the Aleutian High. In our better winters, the Aleutian High becomes more amplified and develops a Kamchatka/AK block which forces the PV into Western Canada or the Canadian Prairies, bringing cold air into the Northern Tier. In the poorer winters like 05-06, the Aleutian High is more zonal/horizontal in terms of the area of greatest 500mb height anomalies, and this allows the PV to settle into AK and the Bering Strait more with the High staying further south, cutting off North America's cold air source. Also, the Newfoundland cold pool/tripole configuration in the Atlantic has been eroded a bit. There's still some semblance of a cold pool, but the differences are fairly striking compared to January 2011. Having a Newfoundland cold pool is weakly correlated to a -NAO/50-50 Low, which improves our chances of Nor'easters. SSTs right now aren't particularly important since there's so much time left, but I might have to reduce my predictions of blocking if the SST pattern in the North Atlantic deteriorates further. Latest SSTA: January SSTA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Just don't forecast a torch in January this year. but it worked so well last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Here are the composite maps to back up my thinking about the Aleutian ridge...Last winter saw the Aleutian High develop into an AK block, which gave Canada northerly flow off the Pole and kept our temperatures below normal, despite the semblance of a SE ridge emerging later in winter. February had the strongest gradient pattern as the Canadian cold air source met resistance from the SE ridge. Winter 10-11 500mb anomalies, notice the favorable position of the Aleutian High: Winter 99-00 was the warmest on record in the United States, and much of this was due to an unfavorable Aleutian High....notice how far south the ridge is, allowing a PV to sit over the Bering Strait and Alaska, which creates strong southerly flow into Canada and limits any arctic air. Here is the 500mb map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 First thought in my mind looking at that SSTA map ... 2008. Striking resemblance. Would be a great analog aside from opposing forces in the stratosphere. Re: Atlantic tripole, notice the cold anomalies in the eastern Atlantic. Currents will spread this cold pool westward through the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 First thought in my mind looking at that SSTA map ... 2008. Striking resemblance. Would be a great analog aside from opposing forces in the stratosphere. Re: Atlantic tripole, notice the cold anomalies in the eastern Atlantic. Currents will spread this cold pool westward through the fall. Exactly right on the tripole, the current map can change drastically in a week . One strong fall coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 First thought in my mind looking at that SSTA map ... 2008. Striking resemblance. Would be a great analog aside from opposing forces in the stratosphere. Re: Atlantic tripole, notice the cold anomalies in the eastern Atlantic. Currents will spread this cold pool westward through the fall. I'm going with an '08-'09 type of winter.....80" (75-85") IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Preliminary outlook: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22997-preliminary-outlook-for-winter-2011-12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Preliminary outlook: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22997-preliminary-outlook-for-winter-2011-12/ well done. you headed into long-range/climate forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Sam, well thought out. You presented it nicely. Of course, we are pulling for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 I am confident . Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 I am confident . Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 I am confident . Big Diaper changing.. Big Big diapers. yep...no skiing this winter for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 yep...no skiing this winter for you More like heavy heavy diapers....literally...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Ah, yes - a wonderful homage to all those false hopes and amplitude biases of the middle range models over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Sam, well thought out. You presented it nicely. Of course, we are pulling for you. well done. you headed into long-range/climate forecasting? Thanks guys! I'm really interested in seasonal forecasting on time scales like this. Kind of hard to find that line of research in grad schools. It's there, but it's the climate change and severe weather research that get the most attention. A lot of people dismiss it as very low skill ... which it is lol, but that's where everything starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 I hope your forecast pans out Sam. It would look to be an absolute blockbuster in New England, lol. Active and cold is what we want for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Thanks guys! I'm really interested in seasonal forecasting on time scales like this. Kind of hard to find that line of research in grad schools. It's there, but it's the climate change and severe weather research that get the most attention. A lot of people dismiss it as very low skill ... which it is lol, but that's where everything starts Well there's money to be had there if you're good at it. You've definitely stepped it up several notches recently. Im definitely more interested in short range stuff but always appreciate the time folks put into their long range efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Thanks guys! I'm really interested in seasonal forecasting on time scales like this. Kind of hard to find that line of research in grad schools. It's there, but it's the climate change and severe weather research that get the most attention. A lot of people dismiss it as very low skill ... which it is lol, but that's where everything starts Yea, your average person doesn't really care about what the weather is gonna be like 6 months from now. They are more worried about how much rain were gonna get tonight and whens it going to stop for their Sunday plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 yep...no skiing this winter for you Lol. I'm already planning my next AK trip. My wife is totally cool....as long as my life insurance policy is substantial.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 More like heavy heavy diapers....literally...lol. I'm going to laugh so hard when you tell us you're going to be a daddy. It'll probably happen this Winter. It's going to be a severe one and you'll have plenty of time to slip up. No more Smithwicks for you, just lots of crying in the middle of the night. Sometimes the baby will cry too.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 I'm going to laugh so hard when you tell us you're going to be a daddy. It'll probably happen this Winter. It's going to be a severe one and you'll have plenty of time to slip up. No more Smithwicks for you, just lots of crying in the middle of the night. Sometimes the baby will cry too.lol LOL, I know what's in for me. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 LOL, I know what's in for me. It's all good. It is good. Once you realize your foot loose and fancy free days are over. What are your early thoughts on this upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 It is good. Once you realize your foot loose and fancy free days are over. What are your early thoughts on this upcoming winter? Foot loose and fancy free?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 It is good. Once you realize your foot loose and fancy free days are over. What are your early thoughts on this upcoming winter? Ah its nice to be foot loose and fancy free again. Many many coastals incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 It is good. Once you realize your foot loose and fancy free days are over. What are your early thoughts on this upcoming winter? LOL, foot loose? I was never very nimble on the floor, althought I may have thought I was after a few gin & tonics. As far as this winter, I think it looks good at first glance, but we're early in the game. I'd like to see how September and October go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Ah its nice to be foot loose and fancy free again. Many many coastals incoming. My friend Pete is here from AK, he' a bachelor and sometimes I'm envious of his ability to just take off for the best snow. However,it doesn't outweigh the satisfaction of being a Dad. Lots of coastals sounds perfect to me. Your forecasting has been spot on this summer, hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 LOL, foot loose? I was never very nimble on the floor, althought I may have thought I was after a few gin & tonics. As far as this winter, I think it looks good at first glance, but we're early in the game. I'd like to see how September and October go. As always...reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic at this pt. But the signals can be so deceiving if the atmosphere wants them to be. Look how much last winter stung for the long range guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 As always...reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic at this pt. But the signals can be so deceiving if the atmosphere wants them to be. Look how much last winter stung for the long range guys. Last night I was driving home at twilight and I saw geese flying in a V formation. Ihave never seen that this early. More than enough evidence to make a severe winter call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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