lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 CONGRATS!! Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Sarcasm? No,he's for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Sarcasm? Nope not at all. Sorry if it came across that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 LEK, I was catching up on the models and looks like the initial band is going to be coming in on a 260-270 flow off Ontario. That would be further south than originally thought right? Do you think this still sets up north of Redfield to start? Hoping it gives me until noon tomorrow to get there. Much like last week, I think we will start out with two bands...(models never seem to show this, and seemingly compromise) then consolidation further north (a break for you) then the southward move tomorrow aftn./eve. begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 let's get the show started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 We've talked about this on many occasions. To get your NWS forecasted totals, you CANNOT simply add up the maximum ranges. I suspect down near OP/WS that around a foot is a good bet. While I agree with this sentiment, this setup does have the ability to easily drop 20-30 inches in the absolute best case scenario. That band is already crackling with 35-45dbz echoes indicative of the extremely convective nature of this setup with the low SFC wind speeds allowing for a longer residence time over the water. There are going to be razor thin strips of 5"/hr all day and night long. I am excessively jealous..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Latest snowfall reports,airport already got 3 inches NEW YORK ...ALLEGANY COUNTY... RUSHFORD 4.0 1201 PM 12/1 SPOTTER ...ERIE COUNTY... LANCASTER 3.5 1100 AM 12/1 CLARENCE CENTER 3.0 1114 AM 12/1 MARILLA 2.0 1030 AM 12/1 BUFFALO 3.0 1201 PM 12/1 WEATHER SERVICE ...NIAGARA COUNTY... LOCKPORT 2.5 1100 AM 12/1 THUNDER EAST WILSON 2.0 1115 AM 12/1 THUNDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Mix of snow and rain at Fort Drum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Pics from West Seneca/OP my girlfriend sent me. These are from about 1pm. She says theres about 3 or so inches and now its snowing heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 This is also 2 minutes from her house. Right at the 90/219 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Nope not at all. Sorry if it came across that way. No problem man.! Thanks dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 While I agree with this sentiment, this setup does have the ability to easily drop 20-30 inches in the absolute best case scenario. That band is already crackling with 35-45dbz echoes indicative of the extremely convective nature of this setup with the low SFC wind speeds allowing for a longer residence time over the water. There are going to be razor thin strips of 5"/hr all day and night long. I am excessively jealous..... Yep, I wish I was home for this event and not the one this past weekend. Don't get me wrong, things got pretty intense for about an hour Friday night with +TSSN but it didn't last nearly long enough. I'll be sure to relay reports from my parents as this event progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm not sure who made up the color scheme for the precip. but when using "black" as one of the colors and the numerical font color is black, it's hard to read the max amounts!!! Appears 2"+ bullseyes at the end of each lake. Some over the eastern areas incorporate the earlier rains...but the southtowns (for this time period) would appear to be 95+% snow.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm not sure who made up the color scheme for the precip. but when using "black" as one of the colors and the numerical font color is black, it's hard to read the max amounts!!! Appears 2"+ bullseyes at the end of each lake. Some over the eastern areas incorporate the earlier rains...but the southtowns (for this time period) would appear to be 95+% snow.: Stop your going to give me a heart attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 My girlfriends house is the red Circle with the black dot. Right on the edge now but theyve been in the intense part of the band for a while. She says theres about 5 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks like some fun times for me over the next couple of days. Not in the bullseye but has to be at least 1" of new QPF after the rains are factored in. I'll keep you posted! I'm not sure who made up the color scheme for the precip. but when using "black" as one of the colors and the numerical font color is black, it's hard to read the max amounts!!! Appears 2"+ bullseyes at the end of each lake. Some over the eastern areas incorporate the earlier rains...but the southtowns (for this time period) would appear to be 95+% snow.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 New pics from West Seneca. About 5 inches there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks pretty awesome in Hamburg eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks pretty awesome in Hamburg eh? ye,bout to go to work for couple of hours so good luck with the LES lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 ye,bout to go to work for couple of hours so good luck with the LES lol I think I remember you saying you work downtown so hopefully when you get out the band is up by you =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 What a beauty =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 2.0" today. That's an awesome band. These types of events are so stingy, though. Feast or famine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Justin, you might want to look away from the screen..... Looks like a major southtowns/boston hills special right now. ...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS... A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM NEAR EDEN AND ANGOLA NORTHEAST ACROSS HAMBURG...ORCHARD PARK...AND EAST AURORA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS BAND WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BOSTON HILLS...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF WYOMING COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF GENESEE COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 One of those classic southtowns events it appears...OP will end up with like 24" and BUF with less than 6" I don't remember one of these events happening in the last 5-10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 lakeeffectkid832...you should update the thread title to keep the viewers informed and interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Heres the evolution of the band thus far. 11 inches in East Aurora already heres a webcam link to downtown EA. http://www.livestream.com/eastauroranylive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 One of those classic southtowns events it appears...OP will end up with like 24" and BUF with less than 6" I don't remember one of these events happening in the last 5-10 years. You don't remember a SW Erie event, or one where metro buf gets the shaft while 5 miles south gets blown out. I guess my question is would you consider the bald eagle event from Christmas 01 and the Oct 06 event to fit this bill? Because those were epic and fairly recent. Not to mention the 2000 3 days before Thanksgiving Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm getting reports of 7 inches in West Seneca. 8 in Hamburg. 10 in OP/Hamburg and 11 in East Aurora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You don't remember a SW Erie event, or one where metro buf gets the shaft while 5 miles south gets blown out. I guess my question is would you consider the bald eagle event from Christmas 01 and the Oct 06 event to fit this bill? Because those were epic and fairly recent. Not to mention the 2000 3 days before Thanksgiving Bomb. the southtowns got plenty in those events...city of BUF/NWS BUF just got more... I'm talking about an event that hammered central Erie County when the city barely got anything. This type of event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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