Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 NCEP models running late. NAM 1-2 hours late so far. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/14980-12z-model-cycle-running-late/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Good bit worried about the Delaware upstream of Trenton -- could be an April 05 repeat...Easton could be in rough shape if those QPF outlines verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z GFS through 72 keeps heaviest qpf 75 miles on either side of the PA line , on the order of 2-3" down through eastern shore of MD back through eastern VA. Less as you head south of mason dixon line. ( 1.5"-2") Get it all out of the way for Scranton St. Patty;s day parade on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 NAM continues to be the driest model with *only* 1.81" of rain IMBY (PNE) PHL 1.58" DYL 1.91" ABE 1.95" MPO 2.05" Jackpots north Jersey, EWR gets 2.43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z GFS running on-time 2.50"-3.00" for the entire area again, 3-4" for Bucks, LV, NE PA and NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Soundings have 3.14" of rain for ABE. Ewall has a bullseye of over 4" Just NE of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Another big rainstorm?! Thats not good news after the last storm that has just rolled through, flooding really is going to be an issue it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z GFS running on-time 2.50"-3.00" for the entire area again, 3-4" for Bucks, LV, NE PA and NW NJ. This part of NEPA sees <2.00". Sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I don't think the Schuylkill will be too bad in my area (Berks), but the susquehanna from northern PA to harrisburg and south will potentially be problematic. 3 inches will result in flooding for the Schuylkill River and will flood portions of Lower and Upper Providence Township, Norristown and Bridgeport.. The Collegeville Inn parking lot will flood from the Perkiomen. The backwaters from the Skippack Creek and the Schuylkill River will only enhance the the flooding for the Perkiomen. The ground is now what hydrologists and soil scientists call super saturated and 3-4 inches of rain will result in historical flooding. Do not be surprised when the Mt. Holly issues flood warnings after the first inch of rain. Also, in super saturated soils, mudslides often occur. The Poconos should be on alert for this. The Little Lehigh will again flood with Spring Creek Rd underwater for days. The Delaware will flood Lower Mt. Bethel and Easton with 611 closed in areas along the River. The Delaware Canal trails will be washed out again. Trenton and Bucks County will experience flooding but to what extent I do know at this time. The Neshaminy will also flood. Watch the EM briefings starting tommorrow at the Mt. Holly website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 With the March nor'easter last year, we got 2.50" on saturated ground and the Neshaminy hit Major Flood stage. Especially if this is thunderstorm/convective rains the totals could be higher than modeled, much like how this past weekend's 1.00"-1.50" forecast ended up being 2.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z GGEM gives Philly & points west 40-85mm of rain, 1.57"-3.35" Central PA is still ground zero, the maximum would be 60-125mm, or 2.36"-4.92" right around Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z GFS gives PNE 3.33" PHL 2.91" DYL 3.66" ABE 3.51" MPO 3.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z GGEM gives Philly & points west 40-85mm of rain, 1.57"-3.35" Central PA is still ground zero, the maximum would be 60-125mm, or 2.36"-4.92" right around Harrisburg. That's only through 48hrs correct? with much more rain to fall east of Philly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 That's only through 48hrs correct? with much more rain to fall east of Philly after that. No that's through 72, looking off the b&w charts. The color maps are more precise but I don't think they're out yet. The b&w charts have really wide ranges for precip amounts though so wait for the color charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 No that's through 72, looking off the b&w charts. The color maps are more precise but I don't think they're out yet. The b&w charts have really wide ranges for precip amounts though so wait for the color charts Looks like there is more precipitation thru 84 hrs on the GGEM and 96 hrs as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 With the March nor'easter last year, we got 2.50" on saturated ground and the Neshaminy hit Major Flood stage. Especially if this is thunderstorm/convective rains the totals could be higher than modeled, much like how this past weekend's 1.00"-1.50" forecast ended up being 2.00" Of course us northerners have to watch the temps. We could see snow to start and end with the heavy rains in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12 Z ECM has lowered amounts by about an inch here at ABE ABE 2.57 DYL 1.9 MPO 2.92 AVP 2.91 PHL 1.49 EWR 1.52 TTN 1.58 NYC 1.38 All this is via text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12 Z ECM has lowered amounts by about an inch here at ABE ABE 2.57 DYL 1.9 MPO 2.92 AVP 2.91 PHL 1.49 EWR 1.52 TTN 1.58 NYC 1.38 All this is via text EC was too low on rainfall with the last event and it looks like it could be headed down the same path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 EC was too low on rainfall with the last event and it looks like it could be headed down the same path. The can ggem overall had the best verification in the Mt. Holly CWA with the last event. Not every run, but the nam and can rgem did a good job at capturing the double structure pcpn bullseyes in the Poconos and northern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 15z SREF mean has an area of 3-4" over the Lehigh Valley with some members giving the area 4+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I can't imagine what 3 inches of rain over the Susquehanna River Watershed will do downstream to towns like Shickshinny not protected by the levee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 HPC has 3" over E Pa and N NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 its gonna rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Let's play a game. See what's the higher Friday morning, the rainfall total or the price of gas. Anyone care to wager? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/crests.php?wfo=phi&gage=tren4 Historical Crests for Delaware River at Trenton (1) 30.60 ft on 03/08/1904 (2) 28.60 ft on 08/20/1955 (3) 28.50 ft on 10/11/1903 (4) 25.33 ft on 04/04/2005 (5) 25.09 ft on 06/29/2006 (6) 24.43 ft on 03/19/1936 (7) 23.60 ft on 03/02/1902 (8) 23.41 ft on 09/19/2004 (9) 22.20 ft on 01/20/1996 (10) 21.12 ft on 05/24/1942 Crested at 18.94' early this morning after major drip I, after major drip II a run at 4/05 not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 better late than never, but heres the 12z euro map white .5-.75 light blue .75-1 purple 1-1.25 blue 1.25-1.5 light green 1.5-1.75 puke green 1.75-2 red 2-2.5 pink 2.5-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 row row row your boat gently down the stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 row row row your boat gently down the stream yikes. is that a 2.5 contour closed off right over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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