A-L-E-X Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 ISP is warmer then LGA by a good amount. What about us over here? Looks like the milder air is focused to the east rather than the south, so it might be a good spot for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 GEFS says the first two weeks of march are very :snowman: Starting from the 7th? That's more like second week (or close to it) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 http://www.njfreeway...elPressure.html Good analogue lol look at that 3-6 right on the Jersey Shore. I think that extended to NYC and Long Island also. What a quick change from rain to snow right in the middle of the day, high winds and plummeting temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Precip is mostly gone on euro before it's cold enough for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 gem 10 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I don't think many people are giving this threat as much attention as it deserves. To be honest, I think were only a model run or two from a major global showing a massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE Warm and Rain but good to see the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18Z GFS went back to major flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Im really interested in this storm now. We have a strengthening high pressure in a great spot along with a slow moving low, and obviously alot of moisture. Move it 100 miles east now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18Z GFS went back to major flooding Meh, still a week away. I'm more curious to see ensembles since all 12Z ensembles were east of the OP(GFS). Either way, did you expect to see some agreement or something....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Regardless what happens rain or snow, there will be a lot of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18Z GFS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I like the strong sfc high to the north, which is basically the only reason this storm has a fighting chance to produce accumulating snow along I-95. Otherwise the pattern blows, no PNA ridge out west, no 50-50 low, no north atlantic blocking, etc. Good news is it's March, wavelengths are beginning to shorten, lows like to cut-off/slow down easier than they would in DJF. So not a total lost cause, definitely worth monitoring (considering the past several weeks have been boring as heck, save for tracking snow pack death). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I like the strong sfc high to the north, which is basically the only reason this storm has a fighting chance to produce accumulating snow along I-95. Otherwise the pattern blows, no PNA ridge out west, no 50-50 low, no north atlantic blocking, etc. Good news is it's March, wavelengths are beginning to shorten, lows like to cut-off/slow down easier than they would in DJF. So not a total lost cause, definitely worth monitoring (considering the past several weeks have been boring as heck, save for tracking snow pack death). Agreed 100%, but you won't hear me barking about this one. I've seen hundreds of setups where models try to redevelop surface waves on a cold front after it moves through...it may have verified once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Agreed 100%, but you won't hear me barking about this one. I've seen hundreds of setups where models try to redevelop surface waves on a cold front after it moves through...it may have verified once. march 05 and jan 06 are the two i can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Agreed 100%, but you won't hear me barking about this one. I've seen hundreds of setups where models try to redevelop surface waves on a cold front after it moves through...it may have verified once. Yea but that is taking the current depiction verbatim. The evolution of all the elements and shortwaves at H5 will change a million times and affect not only the final solution, but how it occurs. Jan 26 at times was an interior storm, a two wave storm, a frontal wave, until finally it was evident it would be an initial northern stream wave that moved through quickly lowering the hgts and bringing a reinforcing shot of cold in association with a strong area of confluence. A shortwave associated with the southern stream was able to produce in a relatively unfavorable pattern. All I am saying is the models current depictions of an initial interior storm followed by a wave forming along the front can change, just as happened with JAN 26. I agree the pattern is not perfect, but recognize the reality that with a favorable HP, the pattern can defy logic as has often been the case this winter. I don't think anyone in here thinks the likelihood of a snowstorm is high, but that at least unlike the past two rain makers, this pattern has at least one favorable element in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Agreed 100%, but you won't hear me barking about this one. I've seen hundreds of setups where models try to redevelop surface waves on a cold front after it moves through...it may have verified once. John, it's been a great run, and this winter is clearly a shadow of its former self now (and has been for weeks). No real indication of significant blocking resuming within the next couple weeks, and the Pacific looks fairly hostile as well. Maybe a PNA relaxation by mid month which could give us a window of opportunity around the 15th, but I wouldn't bank on it. Warm/cutter/cold looks to be the default pattern as the strong nina catches up with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yea but that is taking the current depiction verbatim. The evolution of all the elements and shortwaves at H5 will change a million times and affect not only the final solution, but how it occurs. Jan 26 at times was an interior storm, a two wave storm, a frontal wave, until finally it was evident it would be an initial northern stream wave that moved through quickly lowering the hgts and bringing a reinforcing shot of cold in association with a strong area of confluence. A shortwave associated with the southern stream was able to produce in a relatively unfavorable pattern. All I am saying is the models current depictions of an initial interior storm followed by a wave forming along the front can change, just as happened with JAN 26. I agree the pattern is not perfect, but recognize the reality that with a favorable HP, the pattern can defy logic as has often been the case this winter. I don't think anyone in here thinks the likelihood of a snowstorm is high, but that at least unlike the past two rain makers, this pattern has at least one favorable element in place. While that's all true what you've said about Jan 26th, keep in mind that storm occurred within a global regime which was much more conducive for a significant snowfall, a good pacific and still decent arctic/atlantic. Nothing like that now, which means model data is far less likely to trend towards a coastal snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 John, it's been a great run, and this winter is clearly a shadow of its former self now (and has been for weeks). No real indication of significant blocking resuming within the next couple weeks, and the Pacific looks fairly hostile as well. Maybe a PNA relaxation by mid month which could give us a window of opportunity around the 15th, but I wouldn't bank on it. Warm/cutter/cold looks to be the default pattern as the strong nina catches up with us. Yeah, Im afraid this means a cool wet spring and summer ahead of us and maybe a dismal winter next year if la nina conditions persist. At least last year we had an el nino going into a la nina this year-- this time around, no such luck. La Nina is ruling the world lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yeah, Im afraid this means a cool wet spring and summer ahead of us and maybe a dismal winter next year if la nina conditions persist. At least last year we had an el nino going into a la nina this year-- this time around, no such luck. La Nina is ruling the world lol. I for one hope not on the summer front. I'm fine with a cool/wet spring, but summer last year was close to perfect. My ideal summer is hot/wet with plenty of T-storms and svr wx threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I for one hope not on the summer front. I'm fine with a cool/wet spring, but summer last year was close to perfect. My ideal summer is hot/wet with plenty of T-storms and svr wx threats. Yep, last summer was my favorite of all time. This winter was getting there too until it got derailed in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Yep, last summer was my favorite of all time. This winter was getting there too until it got derailed in early February. Summer of 1999? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 While that's all true what you've said about Jan 26th, keep in mind that storm occurred within a global regime which was much more conducive for a significant snowfall, a good pacific and still decent arctic/atlantic. Nothing like that now, which means model data is far less likely to trend towards a coastal snowstorm. That pattern was atrocious. Run after run of warm rain. Thank god for the are of HP to our north which in conjunction with a deepening LP, cooled the atmosphere considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That pattern was atrocious. Run after run of warm rain. Thank god for the are of HP to our north which in conjunction with a deepening LP, cooled the atmosphere considerably. That pattern was nowhere near as atrocious as it is now. The high moved in as a result of the global regime which allowed some weak ridging to build north into Greenland. It was weak but it was there. You can't find ridging within 1,000 miles of Greenland right now. Anything that builds in is transient and does nothing to help us. It's not there man--we need a big change and we're really running out of time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Regarding January 26-27th, there was a East based Negative NAO on its way out, and that is what it came down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 That pattern was nowhere near as atrocious as it is now. The high moved in as a result of the global regime which allowed some weak ridging to build north into Greenland. It was weak but it was there. You can't find ridging within 1,000 miles of Greenland right now. Anything that builds in is transient and does nothing to help us. It's not there man--we need a big change and we're really running out of time now. Will have to agree to disagree. The reality is the point is moot, since neither of us are arguing that a snowstorm will be the result. I guess my point stems from a few factors. Primarily I disagree with your assertion that the global regime was significantly more favorable and in stark contrast to the current pattern. Some individual runs of various models including the GFS and EURO indicate some higher hgts over Greenland in response to an area of strong lp. This in association with a strong area of confluence over SE Canada were both factors that were also present during the evolution of the Jan 26 event on models. The euro/gfs indicate the temporary rise of hgts along the west coast in response to a large dome of hp in the eastern pacific. If the shortwave is able to amplify enough and tap the pj, which will be readily available compliments of a strong HP over SE Canada, then a colder solution would be viable. The fascinating thing about Jan 26 is that all the models started to hint at a more favorable track and impressive setup at H5, yet the solution was still a cold rainstorm. Although the track began to become evident, the models were slow in refining the details by accounting for the strong dynamics associated with a rapidly intensifying system, and a cool air source just to the north. Problem is people overlooked this influential detail and failed to see past the inadequacies of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Regarding January 26-27th, there was a East based Negative NAO on its way out, and that is what it came down too. It might benefit you to consider that some output indicates a quick rise in hghts over Greenland and a brief bout of blocking, which can foul up the subsequent pattern, and alter the outcome. Euro and GFS hint at this possibility as early as d 3-4 range. The constant parade of storms can convolute a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 00z Euro does have a wave on the front at 138 hours. Might be some back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 00z Euro does have a wave on the front at 138 hours. Might be some back end snow. Yea the wave is flat, weak, and progressive. If in some manner the shortwave and energy in the southern stream could amplify as the trough goes negative, maybe a substantial area of LP could form on the front. The cold air is available this run and penetrates into the area even with only a weak impulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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