dilly84 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 We're already above the flood stage over here. And lots of roads are closed. Hopefully waters go down before we get the 2.5" of rain the models show or it could get bad, quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 If the heaviest falls south of 36 generally, that will help spare the Upper White River. I know Noblesville took a good punch from her yesterday. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Looks like another heavy rain event next Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 A few notes for northern Ohio... An average of recent SREF, NAM, GFS, GEFS, and GGEM runs by eyeballing show an average of about 1.8" of rain across the Cleveland area. No models showed less than about 1.4" and some hinted at potentially over 2.5". There will certainly be an elevated convection threat again with this system with training possible due to mid level winds parallelling the front, which may support over 2" where the heavier rain/storms set up. An overall 1.5-2" across northern OH seems like a good bet though overall given current models, again though if training occurs heavier amounts will become likely. With this storm there will be less snow melt. There was a snow pack with 1-2" of liquid equivelent that rapidly melted with the last heavy rain event. With this system there is still a good amount of high-liquid snow on the ground especially on hills and in areas that are shaded more. This may add .25-.5" of run off starting Friday morning which will again need to be considered. With well below freezing temps tonight and slightly below freezing temps tomorrow night the saturated ground will freeze, which will cause water to run off initially which will not help river levels. Once the ground melts though it will still be saturated meaning most water will run strait into streams, creeks, and rivers. Most rivers in the Cleveland area have finally fallen below flood stage or will slowly fall below flood stage before any apprecable rain begins falling Friday morning, so there will be a little room to rise. If rain rates stay lighter this may keep problems from getting too significant. However, a convective and training heavy rain threat exists and with rivers starting higher than last storm, any heavy rain rates would quickly send rivers back into flood and potentially moderate to major flood. So, several factors again point to a widespread flood event, although things are a little different than the last heavy rain event so there are several factors to watch such as if storms train, how much (if any) rain the ground can take before it just runs strait off, and how much rivers can rise before going right back into flood stage, and if the 1.5-2"+ rain is spread out well (which will allow rivers to take it somewhat better) or if most of it falls at once, which would cause more significant flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Unfortunately most models show a series of rather intense storms affecting the Ohio River Valley and Lake Erie watersheds in the forseeable future. Not going to be good if precip estimates verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Ugly, time to invest in a kayak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 man that's not a good place for the bullseye...Quite a few things to resolve still in regards to the low between the NAM and GFS. We either get one strong NW low per the NAM or two weaker, farther south lows on the GFS. Lots of rain either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 unfortunately you can add this on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Gonna do it might as well do it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Btw I'm sure those in Central TN would love to see more heavy rains after last springs nightmare flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Btw I'm sure those in Central TN would love to see more heavy rains after last springs nightmare flooding. that was such a cool pattern, didn't we have 2 high risk days in dixie alley in a 7-8 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 that was such a cool pattern, didn't we have 2 high risk days in dixie alley in a 7-8 day period. Back to back (April 30th, May 1st) and #2 and #3 out of 5 in a 25 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Btw I'm sure those in Central TN would love to see more heavy rains after last springs nightmare flooding. that was such a cool pattern, didn't we have 2 high risk days in dixie alley in a 7-8 day period. Record Floods of Greater Nashville: Including Flooding in Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky, May 1-4, 2010 That was actually brought up in the NOAA assessment of the incident. The WFO's in the area were staffed for severe weather, not flooding and had a hard time making the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Wabash River at Lafayette is forecast to be a good 3 feet higher at the start of the next event compared to last time. The current river forecast doesn't indicate much rising after that but it should be taken with a grain of salt since the entire rain event is not really incorporated yet...plus the usual difficulties with river forecasting. Barring a drastic drier trend, I'd certainly expect it to crest higher than what we just saw...and it could be much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 It looks like over here on the White River, Muncie and Anderson will be close to the orginal starting point. Noblesville is forecasted to be, but its a touch higher than forecast, and coming down slower as well. Of note, the White River in Anderson rose nearly 10 feet in a 24 hour period. Noblesville rose 12 feet in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...FREMONT...SANDUSKY...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...JEFFERSON...FINDLAY...TIFFIN...NORWALK...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY...BUCYRUS...MANSFIELD...ASHLAND...WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN...MARION...MOUNT GILEAD...MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE 1143 AM EST THU MAR 3 2011...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN OHIO...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA INLAND...ASHTABULA LAKESHORE...CRAWFORD...CUYAHOGA...ERIE OH... GEAUGA...HANCOCK...HOLMES...HURON...KNOX...LAKE...LORAIN... LUCAS...MAHONING...MARION...MEDINA...MORROW...OTTAWA... PORTAGE...RICHLAND...SANDUSKY...SENECA...STARK...SUMMIT... TRUMBULL...WAYNE...WOOD AND WYANDOT. IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...CRAWFORD PA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING * MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES RAINFALL STARTING FRIDAY COULD PUT SOME RECENTLY RECOVERED AREAS BACK INTO FLOOD. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE .* IMPACTS: RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. RIVERS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THAT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO RISES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LOCALIZED ROAD FLOODING AND CLOSURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WATER RISES ONCE AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I fear things are going to get pretty ugly for areas around Prospect and Larue just south of Marion...the Scioto is expected to hit 14 ft tonight from last weekends dumping. Another 2-3 inches would really suck for these people. In fact Elgin high school just finished cleaning up after being flooded this week. There are still several homes underwater close to the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Gotta take these one at a time and still plenty of time to go but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z NAM fairly ominous concerning the flooding potential over the next 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Radar is estimating that .5-1" fell this morning around Muncie and Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 New forecast has the Wabash cresting at 18.6 feet. Obviously a changeable situation depending on how much rain falls in the basin. At 18 feet: Extensive flooding covers many acres of agricultural land. Indiana 225 closed by high water. Granville Bridge Public Access Site flooded. Tippecanoe CR 950 W south of CR 75 S floods in several places from the Wabash Bottoms...Janssen Tract to Warren CR 350 N in the Black Rock Perserve Area...a distance of nearly 1.5 miles. High water affects Fort Quiatenon area. All parks in the West Lafayette and Lafayette areas including Mcallister Park Golf Course are flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Radar is estimating that .5-1" fell this morning around Muncie and Richmond. .73 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z HRWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 IND hydro section HYDROLOGY...AS STATED IN THE TONIGHT DISCUSSION PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A LOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUED WITH THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AREALLY EXPECTING 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT SURE AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS. ADDITIONALLY COULD SEE A NARROWER BAND OF 4 INCHES OR SO IF CONDITIONS SET UP WITH MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SOME MODEL FIELDS ARE HINTING. LOW LYING AREAS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AND RIVERS FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED. IN ADDITION WITH WET SOILS IF TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING CELLS DO DEVELOP FLASH FLOODING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z HRWF Quick question...whats the difference between the WRF-NMM and -ARW? Here's the NMM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This map tells it all. Chances are increasing for potentially significant flooding from late tonight until 7 pm est tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 HPC has expanded the flash flood risk area, and the latest crest forecast for the Cuyahoga River at Independence puts it back into the Major Flood category: As a note though, the forecast crest would still fall 2.33 feet lower than the near record crest that occurred on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Absolute train on radar from Ohio back to Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Absolute train on radar from Ohio back to Missouri We'll get a respectable total but it looks like the heavy axis is going to stay just south of here. Close though...it's only like a county away. Could be a dangerous period coming up as most rivers will probably be starting higher for the midweek event than they were for today's event. Hopefully additional rains aren't too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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