Carvers Gap Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The 0z Goofy giveth (-13c coldest 850 KATL in 11-15day period) and the 6z Goofy taketh away **fwiw** (only down to +1c coldest 850 KATL in 11-15day period). See you at 12z. Others can chime in, but when wild solutions start popping up days 12-16 on the GFS (lack of run-to-run continuity) seems a pattern change may soon follow. Of course it could just be that it is having trouble w/ the upcoming spring pattern as well. PNA moves towards neutral on today's CPC index. I tilled my garden today(about three weeks early) so it's guaranteed to get cold. Lettuce, thyme, chives, and radishes are going in the ground soon. Probably will have to use a cold frame. Tubers will soon follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Tony/Folks, First of all, you all need to put your guns down as I'm only trying to relay objective data rather than just scare you/anger you and would prefer to survive and be able to provide messages in the future. So here goes: The 0Z SUN Goofy has major cold/hard freezes coming deep into the SE 3/11-14. Whereas I'm leaning to the intensty of cold in this Goofy solution being largely poppycock (near record cold -13C 850's in mid-March with 17F at the sfc at KATL and two days of highs of only 45 F and coldest 850 at -10C at SAV), the increased frequency of cold SE Goofy day 11-15 solutions admittedly has me a bit concerned that there will be a threat of hard freezes. Anyone who thought winter was over in Ga. is just deluding themselves And any messenger bringing news of cold air always gets a rasher of bacon and a bumper of ale, in these parts...don't worry, you're quite safe, lol. I always know it is about to get cold and stormy when the March race weekend is approaching, but they aren't having a race this year, so my calendar is off, but it will get cold around the first or second weekend..maybe both...unless it was the race attracting the cold and rain/sn...then my theory might need revising... I always figured it was the nutballs deciding to have a race in early March, when it always gets cold. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 GFS and NAM have upped the amounts for NC tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Anyone who thought winter was over in Ga. is just deluding themselves And any messenger bringing news of cold air always gets a rasher of bacon and a bumper of ale, in these parts...don't worry, you're quite safe, lol. I always know it is about to get cold and stormy when the March race weekend is approaching, but they aren't having a race this year, so my calendar is off, but it will get cold around the first or second weekend..maybe both...unless it was the race attracting the cold and rain/sn...then my theory might need revising... I always figured it was the nutballs deciding to have a race in early March, when it always gets cold. T Tony, I really appreciate your comforting words. It isn't easy being a messenger. Messengers attract guns about as much as modeled historic storms attract weenies when all the messenger is trying to do is to report objectively. OTOH, as a messenger, whereas I don't want to see guns, I also don't want to see, smell, or taste bacon and ale. I'm after neither criticism nor praise and that would constitute praise. I'm merely after respect for the objective reporting process. Thank you very much for your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 GFS and NAM have upped the amounts for NC tomorrow. Foothills, I hope the NAM verifies for you folks up there! You guys definitely need the rain! Although, I hope the GFS verifies for my neck of the woods! It will be nice to have a nice rain event with more than half an inch of rain (we picked up .37 here in Columbus with that fast moving line early Friday morning). I could care less about the severity of the storms that move through, we just need the RAIN! It was getting pretty bad around here with all the smoke and haze that started moving in when Fort Benning decided to have a controlled burn (why? I wish I knew...). I am liking the chance for all of us to get more rain next weekend though, even if it is on a weekend and not during the week when I could talk about it , but I'm not going to complain one bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The 0z Goofy giveth (-13c coldest 850 KATL in 11-15day period) and the 6z Goofy taketh away **fwiw** (only down to +1c coldest 850 KATL in 11-15day period). See you at 12z. 12Z Goofy keepeth away with the coldest for KATL at 850 only down to +1C during the 11-15. So, here are the last 4 Goofies: -3C on 18Z, -13C on 0Z and +1C on 6Z and 12Z. See you at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Foothills, I hope the NAM verifies for you folks up there! You guys definitely need the rain! Although, I hope the GFS verifies for my neck of the woods! It will be nice to have a nice rain event with more than half an inch of rain (we picked up .37 here in Columbus with that fast moving line early Friday morning). I could care less about the severity of the storms that move through, we just need the RAIN! It was getting pretty bad around here with all the smoke and haze that started moving in when Fort Benning decided to have a controlled burn (why? I wish I knew...). I am liking the chance for all of us to get more rain next weekend though, even if it is on a weekend and not during the week when I could talk about it , but I'm not going to complain one bit! thanks yes we do need the rain. Its already a warm day and if the conditions tomorrow hold up, with more sun to start and the instability, theres some good things going for both a good bout of rain and severe weather, so I'm liking our chances much more on this event than the last one. Also, the next weekend event holds some promise, even if its faster moving than the Euro was showing...the GFS is getting close to closing off a system but doesn't do it yet. Still, would be a nice big wall of slow moving rain moving through the Southeast, hopefully that slows down even more to really drench us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Noticed with the cutoff shown on the ECMWF for a week off, there was a noticeable lack of cold air. Would like to have ONE more solid snow in the High Country this year, it is appearing unlikely. Will be a LONG wait for November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Noticed with the cutoff shown on the ECMWF for a week off, there was a noticeable lack of cold air. Would like to have ONE more solid snow in the High Country this year, it is appearing unlikely. Will be a LONG wait for November! I'd be extremely shocked if parts of the NC mountains don't get another snow. They're almost guaranteed it will, maybe not in AVL but 99.9% sure Boone will. In fact, the Euro now has enough cold air to generate some snow there with the next cutoff next Sunday night/Monday, but usually cut offs that iniitiate so far south don't have much cold with them, so I'm impressed its showing enough cold to do it. Later on in March or April there will probably be another cutoff, more traditional with a northern jet cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Asheville always has had snow in March and I don't think this year will be any different. Just a matter of how much. maybe an inch or two or maybe a big storm, who knows but we've always seen snow in March and sometimes April around Asheville. Just patiently waiting. I'd be extremely shocked if parts of the NC mountains don't get another snow. They're almost guaranteed it will, maybe not in AVL but 99.9% sure Boone will. In fact, the Euro now has enough cold air to generate some snow there with the next cutoff next Sunday night/Monday, but usually cut offs that iniitiate so far south don't have much cold with them, so I'm impressed its showing enough cold to do it. Later on in March or April there will probably be another cutoff, more traditional with a northern jet cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 12Z Goofy keepeth away with the coldest for KATL at 850 only down to +1C during the 11-15. So, here are the last 4 Goofies: -3C on 18Z, -13C on 0Z and +1C on 6Z and 12Z. See you at 18Z. 18Z Goofy coldest KATL 850 has cooled back to -3C during the 11-15. Last five Goofies:-3C, +1C, +1C, -13C, -3C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 18Z Goofy coldest KATL 850 has cooled back to -3C during the 11-15. Last five Goofies:-3C, +1C, +1C, -13C, -3C Quick Goofy update before bed: 0Z has coldest 850 of -1C at KATL in 11-15. So, last six Goofies: -1C, -3C, +1C, +1C, -13C, -3C. Nighty night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Quick Goofy update before bed: 0Z has coldest 850 of -1C at KATL in 11-15. So, last six Goofies: -1C, -3C, +1C, +1C, -13C, -3C. Nighty night. Goofy 6Z 11-15 day period coldest 850 KATL: -1C; So, last seven Goofies: -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Can anyone with EURO precip maps mind mentioning what is going on at 168hrs? 0Z Euro has a ULL tracking through the southeast with 850MB temps crashing as ULL tracks ENE. -4 down to Birmingham/ATL corridor -6 to -8 across a good portion of Tennessee. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Can anyone with EURO precip maps mind mentioning what is going on at 168hrs? 0Z Euro has a ULL tracking through the southeast with 850MB temps crashing as ULL tracks ENE. -4 down to Birmingham/ATL corridor -6 to -8 across a good portion of Tennessee. http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html it had a quickly cutting off system over the srn Apps, with a little bit of snow under it and to the nw, mainly over eastern TN, w NC and eastern Ky, but not a whole lot, as the system is progressive. Its had something similar to this for several runs now. Overall its a good precip event for the Southeast, and turning sharply colder. Also, ahead of it we get into some strong damming, with a slow moving high that helps to stall the system west of the Apps for a while before reaching the Southeast. The GFS is much faster with it. Beyond this, both models have an interesting setup for the country as a whole, with a closed British Columbia ridge and some split flow , with an active southern branch, but not quite as active as what we'd get in a Nino....still, if that happens, we'll head into a cooler, wetter pattern beyond 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 it had a quickly cutting off system over the srn Apps, with a little bit of snow under it and to the nw, mainly over eastern TN, w NC and eastern Ky, but not a whole lot, as the system is progressive. Its had something similar to this for several runs now. Overall its a good precip event for the Southeast, and turning sharply colder. Also, ahead of it we get into some strong damming, with a slow moving high that helps to stall the system west of the Apps for a while before reaching the Southeast. The GFS is much faster with it. Beyond this, both models have an interesting setup for the country as a whole, with a closed British Columbia ridge and some split flow , with an active southern branch, but not quite as active as what we'd get in a Nino....still, if that happens, we'll head into a cooler, wetter pattern beyond 10 days. Interesting, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Goofy 6Z 11-15 day period coldest 850 KATL: -1C; So, last seven Goofies: -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3 Goofy 12Z 11-15 day period coldest KATL 850 down to a cold -9C and 2nd coldest of the last eight Goofies. This implies a threat of hard freeze(s) 3/11-13, but odds of that will still be low until if/when Goofy becomes consistently cold. So, last eight Goofies: -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 I sure am glad you're tracking this! It sure saves me a LOT of time!!! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I sure am glad you're tracking this! It sure saves me a LOT of time!!! Thanks! 3 to 1 odds in favor of below normal. I'll take that This heat has got me down. 75 in Feb. just ain't natural, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Goofy 12Z 11-15 day period coldest KATL 850 down to a cold -9C and 2nd coldest of the last eight Goofies. This implies a threat of hard freeze(s) 3/11-13, but odds of that will still be low until if/when Goofy becomes consistently cold. So, last eight Goofies: -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. The Goofy is being goofy.The 18Z Mon Goofy's coldest 850 at KATL during 11-15 day is the warmest of the last nine and is at +3 C. So, last nine Goofies:+3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 3 to 1 odds in favor of below normal. I'll take that This heat has got me down. 75 82 in Feb. just ain't natural, lol. T Fixed that for you and yes.....I agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 3 to 1 odds in favor of below normal. I'll take that This heat has got me down. 75 in Feb. just ain't natural, lol. T Even down here, I concur 100%!!!!! I've had sleet this time of year. WTFO - we need a bit of spring before summer jumps in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Fixed that for you and yes.....I agree... Sorry, my dear, but you do live in one of two cities, along with Augusta, widely held by many mythologists to be a possible entrance to the underworld, lol. 85 in Columbia probably isn't so far off from being natural Sorry, but after having lived for a while in both Columbia, and Augusta, I just had to go there Anyway, look at your snow totals.... and then look at mine...and weep for me Even down here, I concur 100%!!!!! I've had sleet this time of year. WTFO - we need a bit of spring before summer jumps in! I know that's true! I can't believe the Candyman down in Tampa, never saw sleet or hail. I guess nearer the pan handle gets all the fun down there. Well, here's to a major cold blast to the keys in March Sweeten up them oranges! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The Goofy is being goofy.The 18Z Mon Goofy's coldest 850 at KATL during 11-15 day is the warmest of the last nine and is at +3 C. So, last nine Goofies:+3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. The Goofy continues to be goofy.The 0Z Tue Goofy's coldest 850 at KATL during 11-15 day is all the way down to -8C. So, last ten Goofies: -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. Nighty night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Even down here, I concur 100%!!!!! I've had sleet this time of year. WTFO - we need a bit of spring before summer jumps in! This is the Southeast. We don't get spring. We immediately transition from the coldness of winter to the blast furnace that is summer, usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I know that's true! I can't believe the Candyman down in Tampa, never saw sleet or hail. I guess nearer the pan handle gets all the fun down there. Well, here's to a major cold blast to the keys in March Sweeten up them oranges! T I know! I'm surprised I didn't see any of the fun weather across the peninsula! Having lived in Columbus, GA for 4 months now... I have seen snow (seen before in PA), sleet (saw for the first time that I can remember), freezing rain (same as sleet), and severe thunderstorms (mainly wind events)... and I was at work yesterday from 4am to 9PM and had to be back at 4am this morning... Gotta love TV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The Goofy continues to be goofy.The 0Z Tue Goofy's coldest 850 at KATL during 11-15 day is all the way down to -8C. So, last ten Goofies: -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3. Nighty night. The Goofy continues to be goofy. The 6Z Tue Goofy's coldest 850 at KATL during 11-15 day is only down to +2C. So, last 11 Goofies: +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3 Note the last five's volatility despite being closer to the "event". (i.e., it is now at the start of the 11-15). Whoever decided to call it Goofy knew what he/she was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Sorry, my dear, but you do live in one of two cities, along with Augusta, widely held by many mythologists to be a possible entrance to the underworld, lol. 85 in Columbia probably isn't so far off from being natural Sorry, but after having lived for a while in both Columbia, and Augusta, I just had to go there Anyway, look at your snow totals.... and then look at mine...and weep for me I had often wondered where the portal stood I think old man winter was tired of listening to me *itch and whine this past decade so he decided to shut me up temporarily. I'm sure I will pay for it, much like I did last summer, when he had his friend the heat miser move in next door to me. I did have .77 in the bucket this morning....way more than I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 The Goofy continues to be goofy. The 6Z Tue Goofy's coldest 850 at KATL during 11-15 day is only down to +2C. So, last 11 Goofies: +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3 Note the last five's volatility despite being closer to the "event". (i.e., it is now at the start of the 11-15). Whoever decided to call it Goofy knew what he/she was doing. KATL 12Z Tue Goofy update: now the coldest 850 is within 10 days (hour 228) at +1 C. Last 12 Goofies' coldest 850 at KATL: +1, +2, -8, +3, -9, -1, -1, -3, +1, +1, -13, -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 where is the cold and snow, three weeks of warm is enough, its still winter. I want warm when Spring gets here and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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