Ed Lizard Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Local KHOU forum heating up with Severe Watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 well, not sure if we should do texas stuff here or that tor watch thread. regardless, we've now got a nice big svr watch to the west. no shocker that hgx is sitting between the two; c'est la vie. we should still get a little something tonight. louisiana is looking much better than anywhere in the lone star state. meso page says 3km EHI up to 4 or 5 west of n'awlins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 well, not sure if we should do texas stuff here or that tor watch thread. regardless, we've now got a nice big svr watch to the west. no shocker that hgx is sitting between the two; c'est la vie. we should still get a little something tonight. louisiana is looking much better than anywhere in the lone star state. meso page says 3km EHI up to 4 or 5 west of n'awlins. Not much interest in either location on the board other than us it appears. Hopefully areas that need the rain, get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 nasty hook west of NOLA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 nasty hook west of NOLA Stole the image and hotlinked at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/16244-tornado-watch-329/page__gopid__592809#entry592809 The Louisiana watch thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX...PRIMARILY SRN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU TO MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COASTAL BEND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73... VALID 292259Z - 300100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73 CONTINUES. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FCST TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT OVER THIS REGION AS FRONT IMPINGES ON HIGHER-THETAE WARM SECTOR OVER S TX...LARGE HAIL AND OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS EXPECTED. LAST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NEAR GTU WSWWD ACROSS EDWARDS/VAL VERDE COUNTIES...AND CROSSING RIO GRANDE S OF 6R6...MOVING SSEWD AT ABOUT 15 KT. S OF FRONT...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM OVER SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE IN COAHUILA...BUT GENERALLY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AFTER MOVING E OF MOUNTAINS AND AWAY FROM OROGRAPHIC FORCING SOURCE. STILL...CINH MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ONE OR TWO SUCH TSTMS TO ACQUIRE SUSTAINED ROTATION AND REACH RIO GRANDE AFTER 00Z...ESPECIALLY ANY LEFT-MOVERS OR BOWS THAT MAY FORM. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. PRONOUNCED COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN PREFRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...BOTH AS OBSERVED IN DFX VWP AND AS PREDICTED REASONABLY WELL BY RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...YIELDS FAR MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE SRH FOR ALL BUT EXTREMELY DEVIANT/FAST RIGHT-MOVERS...WHICH ARE UNLIKELY EXCEPT WHERE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING N OR NE OF MEX MOUNTAINS MAY BE UNDERCUT BY ZONAL SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT SOON THEREAFTER...AS HAS ISOLATED CELL OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING FARTHER ENE ALONG MORE SW-NE ALIGNED FRONTAL SEGMENT FROM EDWARDS-LLANO COUNTIES AS OF 2230Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE ACCESS TO WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ANY TSTMS THAT CAN AVOID ACQUIRING LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVE EWD/SEWD AT LEAST IN STEP WITH BOUNDARY TRANSLATION. MOST STORM MOTIONS NEAR FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO HODOGRAPH...WITH FRONTAL FORCING EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO DOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. ..EDWARDS.. 03/29/2011 ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 AccuWx 12Z numbers out, about half an inch Monday evening, still the 0Z graphics, I wanted to see if there was any fun-derstorm potential with that, but will have to wait. Edit to add: Precip fields, HOU area kind of gets scraped by what looks to be potentially significant weather passing just North of here. Lufkin gets an inch and a quarter. A little activity in East Texas but not SETX during the weekend. CAPE just over 3000 J/KG Monday evening (0Z Tuesday) HOU just before precip arrives. As a qualifier, surface, most unstable, I do not know. Skew-T below numbers not that high. 0Z skew-T forcast from Euro, probably unbreakable cap at 800 mb. LFC just below 600 mb. Wasted helicity as well, although upper level winds not amazing, 50 to 60 knots 500 mb and up. 6Z skew-T, after rain arrived, North winds. A 135 hour forecast skew-T would be interesting. CLL and UTS are in the rain with a wind shift, a generic 30.5, 95.5 has a much diminished warm nose, although LFC is still about 650 mb, just shy 2000 J/Kg surface and just shy of 200 m^2/s^2. I think Euro is suggesting storms are on and behind the front, but a good gusty thunderstorm with a cool rush is ok by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 HGX: AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WE ARE ALREADY CARRYING CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. WILL WE GET ANY SEVERE HERE? WE SHALL SEE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfs.png 0Z GFS (link will be 12Z GFS after lunch) suggests it remains darned dry here in SETX. Euro is more optimistic. Over a half on Monday. Difference between not a near miss and a near miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2011 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... SURFACE LOW ANALYZED N OF ABI AS OF 11Z WILL DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY TODAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS --DELINEATED BY PW VALUES OF .75-1.00 INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S-- WILL BE ADVECTED NWD IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW...AND S OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WHILE SYNOPTIC-SCALE HEIGHT RISES IN THE MIDLEVELS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS COULD GLANCE THE REGION DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. WHEN COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR... SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 HGX mentioned isolated storms forming between about ACT and DFW, and mentioned they'd keep an eye out for anything drifting into the Northern counties (I'm guessing Houston, Washington, Trinity, Madison-ish counties) but think they'd be coming in after peak heating and on a weakening trend. Edit to add as first post on page- a response to Steve's post about an SPC "See Text" area in parts of Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I know Day Light Savings means having to stay up later at night (stay up later in the human world) to see 0Z models, and thus isn't all good (post-work yard work makes up for it, mostly), but a cu field at 2 pm, it is really only 1 pm solar, 4 or 5 hours of decent insolation left. 6.7º/Km lapsed rates 3 km to 6 km per 12Z FWD sounding, and lots of daytime heating, well, 18Z RUC does pop a few isolated showers or storms along the I-35 corridor and a little East the next 3 to 6 hours. Isolated, RUC soundings still show CINH looking around the NIU sounding machine at 4 pm and 7 pm for all the 3 digit airport codes that immediately come to mind, but approaching 2000 J/Kg to work with and a big dewpoint depression to help chill and accelerate downdrafts, as alluded to in Steve's SWODY1 "See Text". http://www.meteo.psu.../rucloopsc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 i'm just about giving up on rain. every chance we've had at some has evaporated. drought monitor now talking about how some indicators in east tx are now in D4. looks like we'll end march with only 0.69" in the bucket... less than a fourth of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 i'm just about giving up on rain. every chance we've had at some has evaporated. drought monitor now talking about how some indicators in east tx are now in D4. looks like we'll end march with only 0.69" in the bucket... less than a fourth of normal New Euro has gone dry. New GFS skims us, apparently a cap that can barely be broken by frontal forcing. Post frontal Monday evening, Monday morning shows some decent parameters for strong storms wasted by very warm/dry temps at 700 mb. A quarter inch at a time, once a week, won't help ease the drought any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI APR 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 011927Z - 012100Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STRONG SUNSHINE HAS SERVED TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS NCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON...PER NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC VALUES IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THIS SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO NEAR 700MB AND CURRENT CU FIELD THAT IS EXPANDING NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 22Z. LATEST THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND MORE LIKELY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE OVER THIS REGION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THEN WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..DARROW.. 04/01/2011 ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 New Euro has gone dry. New GFS skims us, apparently a cap that can barely be broken by frontal forcing. Post frontal Monday evening, Monday morning shows some decent parameters for strong storms wasted by very warm/dry temps at 700 mb. A quarter inch at a time, once a week, won't help ease the drought any. and we didn't even get a quarter inch a couple days ago like IAH did. we picked up a whopping total of 0.01" in fact, before that hundredth of an inch, we hadn't had measurable rain since the 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 The weak boundary is perfectly aligned for Metroplex excitement, but so far, nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 and we didn't even get a quarter inch a couple days ago like IAH did. we picked up a whopping total of 0.01" in fact, before that hundredth of an inch, we hadn't had measurable rain since the 14th I'll TAKE IT!!! Dusty dusty dry here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Looks post frontal, which always cuts down on excitement level, but for a half to a quarter, I hope the GFS is superior to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 On last nights cycle, Europe was sort of Houston's friend, right at a half inch, but I-35 corridor, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM is dry in Dallas tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 NAM is dry in Dallas tomorrow... La Nina appears to be entrenched til fall - I'm gearing up for a very, VERY dry summer. Hay crop is already poor according to the latest ag reports; that may cause me, along with many others, to give my herd of beloved longhorns to someone with more pasture. They are my girls and I don't want to send them to the sale barn, so to the neighbor they go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 La Nina appears to be entrenched til fall - I'm gearing up for a very, VERY dry summer. Hay crop is already poor according to the latest ag reports; that may cause me, along with many others, to give my herd of beloved longhorns to someone with more pasture. They are my girls and I don't want to send them to the sale barn, so to the neighbor they go... That is too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Childress has reach 100F right behind the dryline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 If Norman sounidng is anywhere close to indicative of Dallas, they won't be breaking the cap anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Serious wasted CAPE and lapse rates at DFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Thunder and rain in Ft. Worth! My grandfather told me of such things, so glad I lived to see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 That was something of a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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