am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panhandle_hook The next big, nationwide synoptic storm will get started on February 9th as a massive trough ejects out of the southwestern states into the Southern Plains. At the same time, an Arctic high will be dropping down the lee of the Rockies. This should sound familiar. That means the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast should expect to see more wintry precip. This high pressure does not look to be as strong as the the previous one, so I don't think we'll see hard freezes in BRO, but Austin and San Antonio could get very cold again. Once the shortwave ejects out of the Southern Plains, it will start to gain latitude with strong southerly flow out of the Gulf and southwesterly flow aloft. The big question is how much latitude does it gain. The last four runs of the GFS have brought the system to the East Coast, while the European is trending west into the Ohio Valley due to its stronger initial shortwave, with the Canadian model in between. The Euro ensemble members are mostly less amplified than the operational model, transitioning low pressure to HAT and then bringing the low inside the benchmark. With high pressure off the East Coast next Wednesday, I'd expect solutions in the western half of the envelope will be more likely to verify. The pattern looks to me like a Lakes or OH Valley cutter that are typical in La Nina patterns with a SE ridge (though in this case in looks more like a Bermuda high). If that's the case, areas in OK/AR/MO/IL that just got pounded from the Groundhog's Day storm will have to watch out again as deformation banding will be strong on the backside of the low. Temperature gradients will be tight due to the Arctic high dropping down, leading to strong frontogenetic signals. Snow would then spread northeastward into the Midwest, again with many of the same areas in IN/OH/MI/N PA/NY/NNE seeing heavy snows. Discuss your thoughts on the storm potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It actually isn't a true Panhandle Hooker as those are similar to Colorado Lows except they develop farther S. Typically a Panhandle Hooker/Colorado Low eject NE through the plains and track into the Great Lakes/northern plains as the undergo normal baroclinic development. A classic attribute of these leeside cyclones is the SE jog they initially take as they eject from the Rockies before curving NE. That said--a fun potential event to watch. The spread amongst the global models is actually quite small for an event this far away--but with the potential phase with the northern vortex the details are muddy of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 It actually isn't a true Panhandle Hooker as those are similar to Colorado Lows except they develop farther S. Typically a Panhandle Hooker/Colorado Low eject NE through the plains and track into the Great Lakes/northern plains as the undergo normal baroclinic development. A classic attribute of these leeside cyclones is the SE job they initially take as they eject from the Rockies before curving NE. Really, I just wanted to see how many times we can say hooker in one thread That said--a fun potential event to watch. The spread amongst the global models is actually quite small for an event this far away--but with the potential phase with the northern vortex the details are muddy of course. Yeah, I forgot to even post about the phase potential in my initial post. The Euro ops has the northern shortwave going negative tilt at ORD, while the GFS ops has it over PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Really, I just wanted to see how many times we can say hooker in one thread Yeah, I forgot to even post about the phase potential in my initial post. The Euro ops has the northern shortwave going negative tilt at ORD, while the GFS ops has it over PIT. Some of the previous GFS op runs had a prototype phase with the Polar Vortex--reminded me a lot of Superstorm 1993 except that formed in the GOM and had way more potential energy early on as a result. The Euro was close to losing the jet streak in the intermountain W on the 0Z operational. Another factor is the Tue-Wed coastal event since that will have at least some effect on the baro zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 By the way I enjoy the storm threads in here more. It is more enjoyable tracking the threat from a synoptic stand point and as a whole as opposed to getting real regional with the discussion. I am hoping the forum wide storm threads gain more traction again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 By the way I enjoy the storm threads in here more. It is more enjoyable tracking the threat from a synoptic stand point and as a whole as opposed to getting real regional with the discussion. I am hoping the forum wide storm threads gain more traction again. Besides saying hooker a lot, that's one of the other goals of this thread. I'd really like to get a more national discussion going until it comes down to crunch time and everyone is worried about TBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 By the way I enjoy the storm threads in here more. It is more enjoyable tracking the threat from a synoptic stand point and as a whole as opposed to getting real regional with the discussion. I am hoping the forum wide storm threads gain more traction again. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Besides saying hooker a lot, that's one of the other goals of this thread. I'd really like to get a more national discussion going until it comes down to crunch time and everyone is worried about TBY. It has been a while since there has been a true classic Panhandle Hooker in the plains. We could use one. This storm is a hybrid of about 2-3 "classifications". Agreed I will definitely try to post in here more and perhaps some of the other mets will too. It does seem that once DT left these forum wide model/storm threads died and left with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It has been a while since there has been a true classic Panhandle Hooker in the plains. We could use one. This storm is a hybrid of about 2-3 "classifications". I will definitely try to post in here more and perhaps some of the other mets will too. It does seem that once DT left these forum wide model/storm threads died and left with him. I don't agree it was a matter of DT leaving. If I remember correctly, last year there was a met from Cypress Texas that used to do a lot of the pbp of the Euro in the main forum so people gravitated to that site. This year more poeple seem to have access to the Euro pay site and are doing the pbp in the regional threads. I know Stormtracker tried a number of times to get the storm discussion in the main forum but to no avail. I enjoyed it much more when it was in the main forum. Just made it feel more like the whole group was involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks, I get more out of this than I do the MBY threads... at least until the time gets closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Even though it's certain to be wrong, I'll just throw out my current forecast idea here. This is #15 on the CIPS analog list for this storm. I think the precip shield will be more expansive than this and there will be heavier amounts in the Lower OH Valley/Southern Plains, but it's similar to the schematic I have in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So obviously an inland runner. i guess the thought there is that there won't be any real blocking to force things south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol 12z goes to fishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A huge blast of arctic air behind this one...will it verify? BTW what does 496 coorelate to with temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The new GFS runs just out indicate a weaker shortwave which would take the storm on a more southerly "slider" track. Plenty of cold air in place though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well, the GFS/CMC/UKM all show what happens when there is no phase and the polar vortex is amplified and suppressive The Euro really hasn't changed a ton, except to move the phase eastward towards Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well, the GFS/CMC/UKM all show what happens when there is no phase and the polar vortex is amplified and suppressive The Euro really hasn't changed a ton, except to move the phase eastward towards Columbus. AMPSU, it looks like the midweek storm becomes the 50/50 for the late week system which gives us heavy snow instead of a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well, the GFS/CMC/UKM all show what happens when there is no phase and the polar vortex is amplified and suppressive The Euro really hasn't changed a ton, except to move the phase eastward towards Columbus. After how the last Texas hooker storm treated my forecast, I'm not wanting to comment on this one too early! Safest bet is to say it will snow hard in western Massachusetts like every other storm this year! I think New England is in good shape with this one. The only thing that concerns me is some evidence of a southwest Atlantic ridge trying to pop up. That could make it more of an inland runner than say the 12z GFS indicates. I do love all the southern snow-- heck I remember sometimes it was years between decent southern snow-- now it seems like it is once or twice a month ,regardless of the AO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 After how the last Texas hooker storm treated my forecast, I'm not wanting to comment on this one too early! Safest bet is to say it will snow hard in western Massachusetts like every other storm this year! I think New England is in good shape with this one. The only thing that concerns me is some evidence of a southwest Atlantic ridge trying to pop up. That could make it more of an inland runner than say the 12z GFS indicates. I do love all the southern snow-- heck I remember sometimes it was years between decent southern snow-- now it seems like it is once or twice a month ,regardless of the AO! How do you feel about the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As mentioned by a few here... I think the key feature is the first shortwave going up the coast and becoming a 500mb low. This helps pull the polar vortex ever so slightly southward, that prevents a track up the Appalachians or to the Great Lakes. I think the stronger than initial shortwave trends, the more likely a suppressed solution is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Why is the GFS washing out the wave lately? I'm going to hug the Euro for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think it did the same thing during the same time frame before the Jan 9 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Why is the GFS washing out the wave lately? I'm going to hug the Euro for now. Too much confluence between the southern stream and the polar vortex seeping southward. The transition of the PV south seems unlikely to me because of the Bermuda high set up offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think everyones hoping this first low coming through will windup tighter and draw the cold air a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the trend is further south and east today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just pushed out 19Z SmartModel Run. Starting to get some of the early results for 9-11 forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the trend is further south and east today. Actually 12z Euro looks about 80-120miles west of 0z.. Would like to hear what the ensembles show.. Just have a gut feeling this will be the snow of the yr for southern Mid-Atlantic.. SO much for the hooker theory amazing how 24hrs can change everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Actually 12z Euro looks about 80-120miles west of 0z.. Would like to hear what the ensembles show.. Just have a gut feeling this will be the snow of the yr for southern Mid-Atlantic.. SO much for the hooker theory amazing how 24hrs can change everything. the ensemble mean is a graze in this area but an OK hit for se va ne nc. it's prob a bit nw of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just pushed out 19Z SmartModel Run. Starting to get some of the early results for 9-11 forecasts. Can you start a thread explaining how your model works? I've seen you post it a few times but I don't quite understand how it operates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Can you start a thread explaining how your model works? I've seen you post it a few times but I don't quite understand how it operates. When you provide your personal information (name, e-mail address, phone number), this one will tell you what that 'smart model' says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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