mdwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 When you provide your personal information (name, e-mail address, phone number), this one will tell you what that 'smart model' says... It tells you that you're a fool for giving out your personal info for some hack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It tells you that you're a fool for giving out your personal info for some hack. It tells me you're a fool for believing I would ever do such a thing. Welcome to my weather forecast site, the home of the unique forecast model, that gets smarter with each run of the model. The Smart Model can be run every hour and the more runs it gets, the better it will forecast the weather. I built this program to provide the most accurate forecast possbile. With today's overwhelming amount of weather data, it is hard to put it all together to understand what the weather will bring us. Well this is what my model does, it takes all that data and combines it with what is happening now and gives you one single, accurate weather forecast. To request a run for your city email me at [email protected] or fill out the form located at the bottom of the page. Average response time is 3 hours. Once the city is posted here, you will be notified by the email provided when it is available. Update: Severe weather potential will be added to the Smart Model soon, specifically Winds, Hail, and Torndao Threat. Visibility and Snowfall formulas need tweaking, will be implementing some better correction values (01 Feb 11) First Name * Email Address * Telephone Number Enter Location and if you want to be emailed when uploaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On a more positive note, the 12Z's have started with some important dropsonde data from Winter RECON missions. Hopefully all the flip flopping will settle down in the American model world and we will get a bit better picture of what the week will bring... NCEP Operational Status Message Sun Feb 6 13:42:09 2011 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 061342 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1337Z SUN FEB 06 2011 THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME WITH 31 CANADIAN...13 MEXICAN AND 10 CARIBBEAN STATIONS AVBL FOR INGEST. THERE WERE 10 DROPSONDE...ANCHORAGE C-130 DATA...REPORTS RECEIVED...5 OF WHICH WERE INGESTED INTO THE NAM. 12Z NAM RAOB RECAP... UIL/72797 - DELETED TEMPS/MOISTURE/HEIGHTS 739-701 MB... TEMPS TOO COLD. TAE/72214 - DELETED TEMPS/MOISTURE/HEIGHTS 454-430 MB... TEMPS TOO COLD. PPG/91765 - 10142 ASY/70414 - LATE FOR NAM. SGF/72440 - WINDS MISSING ABOVE 500 MB. CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... CWD REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z MON FEB 7. CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 141 PM EST SUN FEB 06 2011 VALID 12Z WED FEB 09 2011 - 12Z SUN FEB 13 2011 A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE/TROUGH GRADUALLY MORPHING INTO A TROUGH/ZONAL FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE BUT POTENT CENTRAL US TO EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS GENERALLY BEEN FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE/SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK RATHER THAN A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAT HOOKS UP THE EAST COAST. ECMWF WAS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TURN UNTIL MORE RECENT 00/12Z RUNS...WHERE IT NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL AHEAD OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE AS IT LIFTS VERY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY. CONSIDERING MODEL VARIABILITY OVER SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE NOT SET IN STONE...BUT DO BECOME HARDER TO REVERSE AS LEAD TIME SHRINKS TOWARD SHORT RANGE TIME FRAMES. ACCORDINGLY AND CONSIDERING CONTINUITY...HPC PROGS REMAIN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/05 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WED/THU...AND A HINT OF THE GFS. THIS OLDER ECMWF MEAN TRACKED SYSTEM SWATH SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE LEFT THAN THE BULK OF NEWER 00/12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND TRIES TO INCORPORATE ANY LINGERING POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM ANY SYSTEM EJECTING OVER SERN US RIDGING ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WEST COAST AS A LEAD COLD FRONT AND PCPN FOCUS PUSHES SLOWLY ASHORE. TIMING VARIES FROM THE QUICKER RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO A LITTLE SLOWER 00Z GFS/ECMWF. 00/12Z GEFS MEAN ARE EVEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER WHICH REMAINS INTERESTING. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND THOUGH TIMING CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE. FRACASSO/SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Can you start a thread explaining how your model works? I've seen you post it a few times but I don't quite understand how it operates. Basically my model does alot of trending analysis. I takes the two previous runs of the GFS, WRF, NAM and compares the actual observations. Then it assigns weighted correction values, which are then applied to the current model runs and then i re-run the surface base model data and it give me a new set of data and then i display hourly data out to 72 hours. The cool thing is the more times I run it, the more past history I get and hopefully get more accurate results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I just pushed out a 07Z Run for the Southern States and Central States, still tracking the winter storm coming into the plains. Also seeing a primer event happening in NE Arkansas, with potential for 3-6 inches in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It tells you that you're a fool for giving out your personal info for some hack. It asks for your first name and e-mail addy; whoop-de-do. Paranoid much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just responding to the personal information. I changed it so you dont need your phone number, the email address is just for people who want me to send them a reply when the model has been uploaded. Not in anyway trying to grab information for hacking purposes. Only goal is to push out a program I am working on to better help forecast the weather, no other intentions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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