Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ECM actually looks pretty similar to the GGEM judging by placement at 72, perhaps a touch west. Not sure about precip though...better development with the secondary than the GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 ECM actually looks pretty similar to the GGEM judging by placement at 72, perhaps a touch west. Not sure about precip though...better development with the secondary than the GFS/NAM basically nothing... .01-.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z NAM at hr 60, the front is a little wetter. Solid line of 0.10-0.25 from Binghamton, NY to eastern KY. The 12z had a lot less and a lot more broken up. That's just the arctic front though. The new storm is closed of at 1008, maybe a hair southwest of 12z but not enough to give us anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hr 66, storm is in a very similar position to 12z, but more precip being thrown back farther west. I can't tell if it's enhanced by the coastal at all, or just a wetter frontal passage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 66 the column is cold all the way down to between 900 and 925. maybe non-sticking snow. by 69 we're cold all the way down to ~950, just the surface is a touch warm. don't know how much precip is left by then though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 66 the column is cold all the way down to between 900 and 925. maybe non-sticking snow. by 69 we're cold all the way down to ~950, just the surface is a touch warm. don't know how much precip is left by then though... per coolwx its still all rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GFS starting to come around toward my thinking....definitely has some lp development off the MA coast this run...it's too bad we got some pva debris ahead of the main trough since it's stealing some moisture and making it harder for lp development possibilities toward the coast some nice light 2-4" snowfall about 40 miles NW of philly per this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 GFS starting to come around toward my thinking....definitely has some lp development off the MA coast this run...it's too bad we got some pva debris ahead of the main trough since it's stealing some moisture and making it harder for lp development possibilities toward the coast some nice light 2-4" snowfall about 40 miles NW of philly per this run yea it deff is wetter, the bl temps are killing it around the philly area. Still to much southerly wind push from the low out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yea it deff is wetter, the bl temps are killing it around the philly area. Still to much southerly wind push from the low out west. Well, you nailed today's storm a few days prior with your concers about bl temps, so I'm not getting excited about Tuesday til you feel the need to. The cold air on this run of the GFS does appear to arrive late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well, you nailed today's storm a few days prior with your concers about bl temps, so I'm not getting excited about Tuesday til you feel the need to. The cold air on this run of the GFS does appear to arrive late to the party. it looks like a scenario where majority of the .1-.25 precip is rain then it switches over to snow on the backend maybe whitening the ground. Thats how it atleast looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 it looks like a scenario where majority of the .1-.25 precip is rain then it switches over to snow on the backend maybe whitening the ground. Thats how it atleast looks now. I tend to agree with you. The flood of mild air into the region on Monday will take some time to be wiped away heading into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 it looks like a scenario where majority of the .1-.25 precip is rain then it switches over to snow on the backend maybe whitening the ground. Thats how it atleast looks now. Looks like ABE is right on the freezing line regarding 2m temps, so I do think they are mostly snow with 0.25"+ of precip. Draw a line SW to York County and that's probably where the 2"+ snowfall amounts will occur if this run verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like ABE is right on the freezing line regarding 2m temps, so I do think they are mostly snow with 0.25"+ of precip. Draw a line SW to York County and that's probably where the 2"+ snowfall amounts will occur if this run verifies... the problem isnt the surface temps its above that..Abe at hr 54 is around freezing, but the 975-900 mb temps are above freezing by a decent amount. Through hr 54 they have already wasted .15 qpf on rain or frz rain... by hr 57 the bl finally cools below freezing... but with only .1 of precip left. Here is the skew t of abe for hr 54, note the warm bl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 the ggem is now even more bullish with this threat, brings over .5 qpf to the region. If you can get the coastal going faster and limit the amount of southerly wind and weaker the primary in the oh valley, that is a way to get a colder and snowier look for parts of the region. Im going to prob assume that bl issues are still running wild here, but it does look colder with the hgt lines than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs ens mean continues to show a good hit, but the mean bl temps are to warm for the area south of the mdt to abe line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the ggem is now even more bullish with this threat, brings over .5 qpf to the region. If you can get the coastal going faster and limit the amount of southerly wind and weaker the primary in the oh valley, that is a way to get a colder and snowier look for parts of the region. Im going to prob assume that bl issues are still running wild here, but it does look colder with the hgt lines than 12z Differences are pretty noticeable to the GFS starting at 48 with a stronger and negative tilted trough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 yup phl changes over this run to snow...good hit for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yup phl changes over this run to snow...good hit for the interior Is this the Tuesday storm or the Thursday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Is this the Tuesday storm or the Thursday storm? tuesdays storm, thursday is a coastal scraper on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Defintley more of a combined look on the EURO for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 euro is a little wetter for tuesday but no where near the ggem. It has .1-.25 from edison to ukt to mdt on north... .01-.1 on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 but still similar results to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow... This might end up being a good 3-6" snowfall for the interior regions. Probably a better idea to track this first and then worry about the storm that all the models have OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow... This might end up being a good 3-6" snowfall for the interior regions. Probably a better idea to track this first and then worry about the storm that all the models have OTS. well the ggem is the only model that is bullish on it, well the gfs ens to a degree. The euro is like .1-.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wxsim program has a mix (Sn/Rn)arriving on Monday evening by 6pm temp at 33.5 Temps slip below freezing by 8pm and remain that way thru the event Per the Wxsim 850's are below freezing...however the problem is in the BL temps per the Wxsim as they remain above freezing until around 5am when the precip transitions to heavy snow for the last couple hours....about half the 0.28" falls with BL temps too warm but...looks like 1-2" of snow by AM rush Tuesday...with the big storm on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wxsim program has a mix (Sn/Rn)arriving on Monday evening by 6pm temp at 33.5 Temps slip below freezing by 8pm and remain that way thru the event Per the Wxsim 850's are below freezing...however the problem is in the BL temps per the Wxsim as they remain above freezing until around 5am when the precip transitions to heavy snow for the last couple hours....about half the 0.28" falls with BL temps too warm but...looks like 1-2" of snow by AM rush Tuesday...with the big storm on Thursday your wxism still shows the storm for thurs for PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM finally comes around with the low developing off the MA coast...bl simply too warm for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not being negative, just asking because I haven't followed the GGEM verification stats this season...has the GGEM been remotely close to any solution this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM finally comes around with the low developing off the MA coast...bl simply too warm for phl 850s are so far off the coast that couldn't that be a wet snow as long as it's close to freezing? Esp. for the Philly suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 850s are so far off the coast that couldn't that be a wet snow as long as it's close to freezing? Esp. for the Philly suburbs. Surface 0C line is close. It runs SW to NE between PHL and ABE. Most of NJ is above freezing except extreme NWNJ. Could be wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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