ptb127 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This can be a storm even in the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This can be a storm even in the interior? looks light for you...either not a lot of precip or simply late development with marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 slightly less amplification with the trough as the storm passes by, the primary low remains dominant but you can see the GFS trying to form the secondary 0.1-0.25" QPF with rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 gfs trended better with the bl issues this run, probably brings some snow into phl now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah colder but only light qpf as storm is disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 gfs ens mean continues to be more impressed with this wave...0z tonight is the most impressive i have seen so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 it looks like the problems with this one are the weakening southern stream energy that is respnsible for developing our coastal and the main low associated with the northern stream locking the cold air...personally i think the former is the biggest reason for not having something more interesting to follow both NAM and GFS look pretty decent up until hour 72 when the southern stream energy goes negatively tilted and actually ends up crapping out...i feel as though the GFS is the closer of the two as it at least attempts to develop something off VA wrt the troughing and RRQ of the upper level jet streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 yup gfs trended colder with the bl temps, implies rain over to some snow tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro? only at hr 54, i will post what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 so far like most of the models tonight its trending less amped with the trof with less negative tilt causing hgts to be lower on the ec with a weaker storm so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 so far like most of the models tonight its trending less amped with the trof with less negative tilt causing hgts to be lower on the ec with a weaker storm so far Please don't tell me it's like the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Please don't tell me it's like the GFS... this is for the tuesday storm not the later in the week one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 78 has a sub 1004 low over north central pa...the hvr precip is associated with that...some lgt precip down in va and the se... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 this is for the tuesday storm not the later in the week one The flatter Tuesday is, the flatter the late week storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 84 the primary is still the main storm, its trying to pop a 2ndry but its well ots...not much precip maybe a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 The flatter Tuesday is, the flatter the late week storm is. yes, but it can be flat at our latitude, it just needs to blow up at some pt from here to new foundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 90 its a sub 988 low in the gulf of maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 tombo, if u dont mind me asking, how does the euro look with the storm tomorrow for upstate ny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 96 has a sub 984 low over new foundland, so you got your strong low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 tombo, if u dont mind me asking, how does the euro look with the storm tomorrow for upstate ny? from saranac lake on north is all snow...qpf .5-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 from saranac lake on north is all snow...qpf .5-1 850s get north of the lake george region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 850s get north of the lake george region? its right around there at the start of the event, then it crashes south the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The 50-50 low sounds to be in place for the potential big storm to follow. Things seem to be coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 its right around there at the start of the event, then it crashes south the next frame. thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 gfs ens mean is way west with this storm now, brings in good precip into the area now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 ggem is showing a nice slug of moisture with the storm. Won't know for sure if its rain or snow till the ptype maps come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 the ggem is still all rain for everyone south of rdg to ukt line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the ggem is still all rain for everyone south of rdg to ukt line. Yeah, but it's not too snow goggle-ish to trust the GFS over the GGEM when it comes to temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I thought the GFS was making strides yesterday as it had a low coming off VA and attempting to take over and develop as the troughing complex shifted to the NE. TBH I actually prefer the GGEM solution over the NAM/GFS based on what I saw yesterday and continue to see today wrt expected cyclogensis given the 300mb/500mb features. Oh well....we'll see how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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