famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not being negative, just asking because I haven't followed the GGEM verification stats this season...has the GGEM been remotely close to any solution this season? GGEM has been doing poorly overall as compared to the GFS and EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 850s are so far off the coast that couldn't that be a wet snow as long as it's close to freezing? Esp. for the Philly suburbs. its 75percent rain on the nam for phl and the immediate burbs. Once you get well north and west up towards allentown they get an inch or so. I keep saying this, its not the 850s or surface temps that are the issues, its the level above the surface. This is for hr 45 on the nam, note how warm the 925 temps are. From a line from ukt to lns is +3. Here is hr 48 the 925mb temps have finally gotten below frz from the del river on east... Based on the nam phl and the burbs prob see maybe a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 850s are so far off the coast that couldn't that be a wet snow as long as it's close to freezing? Esp. for the Philly suburbs. NW of PHL... like ABE vcnty... yeah there could be a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 No...it shows sunny and cold...no snow - but I don't buy that for one second. Models will start trending toward a storm over the next day or so your wxism still shows the storm for thurs for PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs comes in wetter for this....phl doesnt change over to snow till hr 46-47, but most of the precip has fallen already...maybe an inch on this if they are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not to sound dramatic, but I wonder if the 12Z NAM is hinting at a potential flash freeze (north and west of Philly) for the Tuesday as precipitation ends, and temperatures tumble into and through the 20s. I guess the mild weather today and tomorrow could hinder something like that, but with rain changing to wet snow early Tuesday morning, and falling temperatures I guess there is always a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not to sound dramatic, but I wonder if the 12Z NAM is hinting at a potential flash freeze (north and west of Philly) for the Tuesday as precipitation ends, and temperatures tumble into and through the 20s. I guess the mild weather today and tomorrow could hinder something like that, but with rain changing to wet snow early Tuesday morning, and falling temperatures I guess there is always a chance? Not at TTN... Forecast Hours: 30hr 33hr 36hr 39hr 42hr 45hr 48hr 51hr 54hr 57hr 60hr 2m agl Tmp (F): 39.3 39.8 35.6 33.7 33.8 34.0 33.7 36.0 32.2 26.9 22.2 Temps dont' fall to freezing until midday or early afternoon. Verbatim, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not at TTN... Forecast Hours: 30hr 33hr 36hr 39hr 42hr 45hr 48hr 51hr 54hr 57hr 60hr 2m agl Tmp (F): 39.3 39.8 35.6 33.7 33.8 34.0 33.7 36.0 32.2 26.9 22.2 Temps dont' fall to freezing until midday or early afternoon. Verbatim, anyway. Taking a closer look, you are right. I had my time stamps messed up. Maybe up in the Lehigh Valley and NE PA. Actually, looking at the MOS numbers for ABE, its a gradual decrease in temperature too.....nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 RGEM like its big brother pretty bullish with precip...all of the thickness lines are well SE of the area, but that doesn't mean the 900s aren't above freezing with this model as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 RGEM like its big brother pretty bullish with precip...all of the thickness lines are well SE of the area, but that doesn't mean the 900s aren't above freezing with this model as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 At this point I do not plan to watch this threat unfold. The threat of an inch or more at TTN appears quite low thanks to the warm BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So maybe 50% to 25% of what falls on the RGEM QPF between 00z-12z Tuesday would be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 At this point I do not plan to watch this threat unfold. The threat of an inch or more at TTN appears quite low thanks to the warm BL. yea this may be a feb 25-26 type ordeal where you get snow falling, but do to the surface temps and lack of intensity it just never accumulates much in the i95 corridor and immediate burbs...lehigh valley will be different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 At this point I do not plan to watch this threat unfold. The threat of an inch or more at TTN appears quite low thanks to the warm BL. Where's the optimism? 6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 RGEM like its big brother pretty bullish with precip...all of the thickness lines are well SE of the area, but that doesn't mean the 900s aren't above freezing with this model as well... Doesn't the RGEM/GGEM tend to overphase and intensify storms too quickly? That's the most bullish (and most NW) solution out there...the GFS is a good bit s/e of us with that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well, the snow will be falling before sunrise, so maybe with a heavy burst and temps. between 32-35 areas just north and west of PHL get a slushy 1-2", and the Lehigh Valley and NE PA end up with 2-4". There, that's my optimism, not realism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Where's the optimism? 6"... I'll keep an eye on the guidance to see if it ends up colder. But right now the plan is to sleep that night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'll keep an eye on the guidance to see if it ends up colder. But right now the plan is to sleep that night funny thing is if ttn somehow pulls an inch out of it, that means you have to make another plot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Per Wxsim program...precip now up slightly to 0.31" with almost all (0.29") falling with surface temps below freezing. Should be yet another tough AM rush in NW Chesco. However, mainly a snow/ZR mix with all snow for the last 2 hours before dawn on Tuesday...maybe 1" of snow on top of some ice. Start time 6 or 7pm tomorrow night and all over by Tuesday AM rush. As indicated by the current GFS/NAM - no storm Thursday....but bet the house the storm will be re-emerging on future runs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z EURO for this "threat" is basically the same as 00z run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Per Wxsim program...precip now up slightly to 0.31" with almost all (0.29") falling with surface temps below freezing. Should be yet another tough AM rush in NW Chesco. However, mainly a snow/ZR mix with all snow for the last 2 hours before dawn on Tuesday...maybe 1" of snow on top of some ice. Start time 6 or 7pm tomorrow night and all over by Tuesday AM rush. As indicated by the current GFS/NAM - no storm Thursday....but bet the house the storm will be re-emerging on future runs!! That's been quite the theme this winter. Nocturnal snows. In my area it showed it's face way back in December during the first significant Lake Effect event. For 3 days we kept getting these dusting to half inch snow squalls during the overnight hours, then during the day it would just be partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Per Wxsim program...precip now up slightly to 0.31" with almost all (0.29") falling with surface temps below freezing. Should be yet another tough AM rush in NW Chesco. However, mainly a snow/ZR mix with all snow for the last 2 hours before dawn on Tuesday...maybe 1" of snow on top of some ice. Start time 6 or 7pm tomorrow night and all over by Tuesday AM rush. As indicated by the current GFS/NAM - no storm Thursday....but bet the house the storm will be re-emerging on future runs!! ur house not mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes and the artic boundary was delivered by a clipper that was progged to pass to our north if I remember correctly and starting Friday the models began digging this disturbance further and further south, no? 1) Arctic 2) Clipper was never supposed to pass to our north. There was a chance for rain/snow for a while...it's juiced up a bit but I've seen rain/snow in the forecast for Tuesday for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 That would be a safer bet....it is indeed a bit of a long shot to say the least. But give me an A for consistency! ur house not mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 00z NAM to me shows no big changes from prior runs. Marginal temperatures near the surface Monday night as rain tries to transition to wet snow before ending around 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 RGEM with less precip....looks like all rain for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 euro at 30, pretty dry.. 1004 low well offshore.. 36, 990mb low 200miles ESE of cape cod... very little precip along 1-95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Current Wxsim program off 6z model runs has all mixed to snow with no plain rain in the nearby NW Philly burbs....then very cold week ahead Here is the rundown Light mix by 9pm temp 33.5 Mix continues with temps falling below freezing by 1am All snow by 430 am with 0.5 to 1" of snow by AM commute Temp briefly breaks freezing early tomorrow PM then temps fall and remain below freezing through next Sunday before the big warm up....Current Snow depth 10.0" - Wxsim forecasts 6" of snowcover remaining by Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z 36hr analogs over the east threw us a bone...but not a very big one. http://www.eas.slu.e...SN&sort=500HGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 FWIW, 18Z NAM has virtually no precip for I-95 overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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