Rankin5150 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 After reading Foothills posts and looking at the Models, the threat is growing for either multiple small bouts of widespread winter wx, or will there be one big storm? I figured I would try to throw a little "Carolina mojo" in there and start the thread... Let's hope the trends keep moving in our favor for wintry weather. Like Foothills said, we need to look at the timing of the shortwaves next week, of course if the Euro verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well, the 06z GFS ensemble mean looks pretty good from this far out. All of the ensemble members have the storm. One shows the snow in FL like the EURO, one looks to be mostly rain and several are nice winter events for some part of the SE. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I like the location of the main longwave trough and the PNA ridging on both the Euro and GFS at that time range. So what we have to watch for is any shorwave's rounding the bend around Western Texas later next week. Of course, this far out the models will waffle a lot, and there's always a chance at an inland track with no -nao , but also we could "thread the needle" at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just to throw a little salt and keep expectations reasonable Cheez said the Euro Ens did not agree with the OP...that being said we have the 00z GFS, 00z Euro and 6z GFS all hinting at at least a light event for us next week. Let's see what the 12z GFS has to say in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 At 144 gfs has a nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The 12z wasn't as good as the 6z but the threat is still there. If we can get the Euro to somewhat agree it might be game on! BTW 12z verbatim says congrats CLT and just east with about 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z gfs still showing possibilities for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Something atleast to start watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The 12z wasn't as good as the 6z but the threat is still there. If we can get the Euro to somewhat agree it might be game on! BTW 12z verbatim says congrats CLT and just east with about 3-6. As long as its not a cutter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The 12z wasn't as good as the 6z but the threat is still there. If we can get the Euro to somewhat agree it might be game on! BTW 12z verbatim says congrats CLT and just east with about 3-6. Yeah, I was a little surprised by looking at the 5h maps. Looks like it had a good bit of energy and went neg. tilt at a good time. I was surprised the sfc map didn't show as much moisture but still got a long ways to go w/ this for me to even discuss that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Decent event on the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 As long as its not a cutter right now. Yea lol, like you said the setup is good..the problem is it phases too early? We never really get that spark in the gulf and we're left with a kind of clipper on steroids system. Still plenty of time to trend either way but the signs for next week are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The 12z wasn't as good as the 6z but the threat is still there. If we can get the Euro to somewhat agree it might be game on! BTW 12z verbatim says congrats CLT and just east with about 3-6. Should be plenty of cold air around if we get any moisture. the 06z run was pretty incredible because it showed the surface freezing line in lock step with the mid levels. Pretty rare to get a front through the southeast where the temps at the surface immediately drop to freezing with the passage of the front..it normally lags behind. I'm sure we can think the midwest snow cover for that. 12z certainly has potential. It would be nice of that shortwave dug a little more southwest before turning the corner. Regardless, looks pretty chilly. Winter isn't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yea lol, like you said the setup is good..the problem is it phases too early? We never really get that spark in the gulf and we're left with a kind of clipper on steroids system. Still plenty of time to trend either way but the signs for next week are good. The GFS looked great at 500mb. I have no Idea about the crap it shows at the surface. This is starting to look really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Should be plenty of cold air around if we get any moisture. the 06z run was pretty incredible because it showed the surface freezing line in lock step with the mid levels. Pretty rare to get a front through the southeast where the temps at the surface immediately drop to freezing with the passage of the front..it normally lags behind. I'm sure we can think the midwest snow cover for that. 12z certainly has potential. It would be nice of that shortwave dug a little more southwest before turning the corner. Regardless, looks pretty chilly. Winter isn't over yet. GFS is in a great spot for now. We all know that it can move 500 miles NW in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 the GFS is a pretty good sign, IMO, for the South from and along I-40 and south for next week. Its s/w is a little too sheared looking and there's still time to trend either way. The higher res. ECMWF will probably be a little different, it depends on the orientation of the PNA ridge out west and any additional s/w coming in behind and topping it. It could trend pretty nicely, but at this point just use some guarded optimism. The cold air probably won't be a problem (unless the s/w gets too strong/north). Later on, maybe after that event, a mega PNA ridge could form and that would make a strong system somewhere in the central or eastern US around day 10. The cold is plentiful in the continent, so no big warming trends, and the option of a truly major Southeast Winter storm is more alive than ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z GFS snowfall map has south CLT and points to the east north east in 4-8 with points west around 2-4.. folks west and north of I-40 are the losers on this run. Of course grain of salt needed with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Also on the main weather forum a user is saying none of the models initialized correctly starting with 6z and was way off on the snow depth so it would likely be colder on down the line...not sure if that would effect our storm or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Maybe this can be an opportunity that will trend more favorable as time draws closer. My last recollection of things trending more favorable was my all time fav Feb 2004 snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z GFS snowfall map has south CLT and points to the east north east in 4-8 with points west around 2-4.. folks west and north of I-40 are the losers on this run. Of course grain of salt needed with this post. Big Frosty wont like this. Being comical, he will be shown with the least qpf all the way up until the event, then somehow come out smelling like roses afterwards once everything verifies. He's on a roll the past 2 winters and this year the scenerio I described above has played out on 2 seperate occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 0z canadian looked similar to the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The 12z Euro has the first cold front with a weak low passing west of the Apps, with only light precip (rain) in the Southeast Monday. Maybe some flurries on the back side of the front but its no big deal. The cold outbreak looks much weaker as well (atleast through 132 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yep. Euro looks like a pretty dry typical cold front. Maybe a few flurries, but that's it. In fact, doesn't look as brutally cold following the frontal passage as the past few runs. Is the Euro stepping back (yet again) from a major artic outbreak? I'm still not very impressed with this system or our chances in the coming weeks without blocking, but I would love to be pleasantly surprised. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro however develops a wave behind the front. At 180 hours, there is 0.10 to 0.25 amounts in the form of snow across la, ms, ar, and east tx. Temps over the southeast are -4 to -8. At 186 hours, low is southeast of La in the gulf, snow over ms, al, and la and moving into georgia. Plenty cold over the southeast..0c in south ga, 850s -4 to -8 again over the interior. 192, major winter storm for the southeast. 0.25 to 0.50 over ga 0.10 to 0.25 in the carolinas. Low crosses northern florida and redeveloping southeast of savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yep looks like that second storm on the Euro might be a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Not surprised at all that the new Euro is quite a bit different than the past few runs. With the very fast flow coming over the top of the EPAC ridge and diving into the US the models will do a lot more gyrations and generally op runs will not be trustworthy in the 4-10 day range- even more so than normal. This run to 174 does have a strong SW in TX and another snow event there and even into MS and west TN- not as cold here as the last run but a decent HP to the north. I am not ruling out a threat for someone in the SE but we are not going to really know for quite a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Not surprised at all that the new Euro is quite a bit different than the past few runs. With the very fast flow coming over the top of the EPAC ridge and diving into the US the models will do a lot more gyrations and generally op runs will not be trustworthy in the 4-10 day range- even more so than normal. This run to 174 does have a strong SW in TX and another snow event there and even into MS and west TN- not as cold here as the last run but a decent HP to the north. I am not ruling out a threat for someone in the SE but we are not going to really know for quite a few days. Yep hard to take the Euro to seriously with just one run. But just on the weenie train I'll gladly trade the GFS solution for what the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z GFS ens mean showing we may see a brief transition in the NAO, towards a neutral-ish state around the 10th. 0z ECMWF op and ens mean agree, meaning we could possibly have window for some winter-wx around this period. Have not seen the 12z GFS members but if they were like the previous runs, there is still sig spread in the ensemble. The 0C 850 line and precip behind it are deceiving on the mean because there were several members from the 0 and 6z run that were cold and dry, with others implying RN, and 1 or 2 with a semi-widespread SN. Overall the setup looks better than we have seen in since the blocking pattern flipped, and the long-wave pattern across the NH on the GFS at day 7 shows sig potential with having the greatest H5 anomalies on our side of the pole, rather close to home, and deep troughiness along the EC, the 12z Euro though at the same time does not look similar along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yep. Euro looks like a pretty dry typical cold front. Maybe a few flurries, but that's it. In fact, doesn't look as brutally cold following the frontal passage as the past few runs. Is the Euro stepping back (yet again) from a major artic outbreak? I'm still not very impressed with this system or our chances in the coming weeks without blocking, but I would love to be pleasantly surprised. Carry on. It's ARCTIC....and time will tell is all that can be said right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 at 198, low is rapidly deepening off the nc coast. 0.50 to 1.00 amounts in the coastal plain with another 0.10 from macon to greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 RuH Roh Scooby- 12Z Euro has a snow storm for a lot of folks including ATL. Not drinking the kool-aid, yet. Weenies look away from this run, we are talking 180-192 hours here folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.