40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Final Call: KGAY: 58-68" ORH: 60-70" Cape: 23-33" Bos: 36-46" Pete: 60-70" KPING: 47-57" Thread is here if you were curious regarding details: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/236515-i-thk-snowfall-goes-down-like-this/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Ok Dec....meh J-F, heavy heavies in March; complete with KU and this one won't fu** me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Can you hear me now? why did so many fail this year? (in a good way for many) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Can you hear me now? why did so many fail this year? (in a good way for many) No one wanted to predict a snowy pattern with a strong La Niña and +QBO that usually leads to a lack of high-latitude blocking and warmer conditions over the East. Meteorologists are still trying to figure out why we had such a -NAO/-AO in December and January, but the consensus seems to be that the solar minimum played a role, although this isn't a proven influence and thus doesn't factor heavily into forecasts. We're also in a natural -NAO decadal cycle with a favorable SST pattern over the North Atlantic to make this a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 No one wanted to predict a snowy pattern with a strong La Niña and +QBO that usually leads to a lack of high-latitude blocking and warmer conditions over the East. Meteorologists are still trying to figure out why we had such a -NAO/-AO in December and January, but the consensus seems to be that the solar minimum played a role, although this isn't a proven influence and thus doesn't factor heavily into forecasts. We're also in a natural -NAO decadal cycle with a favorable SST pattern over the North Atlantic to make this a reality. Ginxy like? I forget if he is a big solar/volcano person? Maybe both or 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Ginxy like? I forget if he is a big solar/volcano person? Maybe both or 1... I think he's pretty big on solar and celestial forcings, overall. I called for a -NAO/-AO in December with cold anomalies over the Northeast, but was much less aggressive about the rest of the winter....I'm amazed we got three major coastal snowstorms in a strong Niña including Dec 26, Jan 12, Jan 26...just amazing considering the odds we were against with the Niña/+QBO pattern. The regime started to shift back towards a more typical cold ENSO pattern later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Jerry FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Ok Dec....meh J-F, heavy heavies in March; complete with KU and this one won't fu** me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Jerry FTW Steve and I early and Pete a month later. I went by a number of factors but figured first and foremost that NAO would deliver and it did. I didn't expect such a front end winter but bottom line predictions were close. Not time for baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Final Call: KGAY: 58-68" ORH: 60-70" Cape: 23-33" Bos: 36-46" Pete: 60-70" KPING: 47-57" Thread is here if you were curious regarding details: http://www.easternus...down-like-this/ pete>lol. If you were guessing half my total it would have been too low.<Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 I did not do badly...I predicted a slightly above avg winter for snowfall...better than most forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 I did not do badly...I predicted a slightly above avg winter for snowfall...better than most forecasts. Yeah you were fairly optimistic...it was better than most pessimistic forecasts. My forecast was I believe was slightly optimistic too. But I don';t usually issue "official winter forecasts" since I'm a long range pessimist. For good reason IMHO. Another January blowtorch completely failed this winter like 2009....we've seen it twice in the past 2 winters on consensus. Until the long range skill gets useful with the NAO, then the forecasts will largely remain coinflipping...we can get some of the better forecasters to hit at about 55-60%, but that is only slightly better than coinflipping. Some of the commodity mets lost their azz in the southeast with the orange crop this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 Yeah you were fairly optimistic...it was better than most pessimistic forecasts. My forecast was I believe was slightly optimistic too. But I don';t usually issue "official winter forecasts" since I'm a long range pessimist. For good reason IMHO. Another January blowtorch completely failed this winter like 2009....we've seen it twice in the past 2 winters on consensus. Until the long range skill gets useful with the NAO, then the forecasts will largely remain coinflipping...we can get some of the better forecasters to hit at about 55-60%, but that is only slightly better than coinflipping. Some of the commodity mets lost their azz in the southeast with the orange crop this winter. My largest errors where thinking that it would be very back loaded, Miller B-east laden and I didn't go quite heavy enough. My strong points were that I foresaw the NAO trumping the strong Nina\+QBO and I called the end of the KU drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 What really threw a monkey wrench into the forecast is that the overwhelmingly vast majority of sne's snowfall fell during that very el Nino esc pattern, not during a more typical favorable la Nino regime; this is why CT ended up doing as well as I did and w NE did not get shafted. Of course, things eventually shifted to a pattern more characteristic of la Nina, but that period was not nearly as prevalent or prolific (at least not for sne) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 My largest errors where thinking that it would be very back loaded, Miller B-east laden and I didn't go quite heavy enough. My strong points were that I foresaw the NAO trumping the strong Nina\+QBO and I called the end of the KU drought. The KU drought def ended...it almost ended twice but Dec 26 kind of shafted us, though we have to give credit for it producing 18.2" in Boston even if we suffered the wrong side of the CF enhancement. But we both still got a foot. 1/12 was def a bonifide SNE KU special....that was jackpot over SNE. Classic Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 The KU drought def ended...it almost ended twice but Dec 26 kind of shafted us, though we have to give credit for it producing 18.2" in Boston even if we suffered the wrong side of the CF enhancement. But we both still got a foot. 1/12 was def a bonifide SNE KU special....that was jackpot over SNE. Classic Miller B. I would have liked 1\12 to have deepened a hair more slowly, though.....it was absolutely perfect for CT......but that is nitpicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 I would have liked 1\12 to have deepened a hair more slowly, though.....it was absolutely perfect for CT......but that is nitpicking. Yeah it deepened slightly too fast so we got 20" instead of 26-28" like some of those spots west of us got...but whatever. Cant always win. Most of the time its better for central and eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 Yeah it deepened slightly too fast so we got 20" instead of 26-28" like some of those spots west of us got...but whatever. Cant always win. Most of the time its better for central and eastern areas. Yea....I'm fine with it; it was nice to see Kev finally have his day in the KU sun. You and I see it quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Yea....I'm fine with it; it was nice to see Kev finally have his day in the KU sun. You and I see it quite often. It was a great winter...but I'm too busy defending LI's snowfall climo vs Dobbs Ferry n the other thread, lol. But this winter will always be remembered for its snowpack for eastern MA and back to Central MA/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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